766
FXUS63 KGLD 040846
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH TODAY.
- LIGHT WINDS/WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70'S ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AT 06Z THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST (TODAY) AND UPPER GREAT LAKES (TONIGHT). NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN-SUN NIGHT, BETWEEN A
WEST CONUS RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROUGH.
TODAY: MODEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW, WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY. IN SPITE OF A BAGGY AND ILL-DEFINED MSLP PATTERN, A
RELATIVELY TIGHT 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL, NEVERTHELESS,
SUPPLY THE 'RAW MATERIAL' (~30-35 KNOT NW FLOW) FOR VERTICAL
MIXING TO TRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT NW WINDS ~20-30 MPH. GUSTS TO ~40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON..
BEFORE THE 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT SLACKENS, LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WEAKENS TO ~25-30 KNOTS AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES BECOME MORE
HOMOGENOUS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 60'S AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AROUND 15-25%. FROM A FIRE WEATHER
STANDPOINT, RH APPEARS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY. FOR
COMPARISON, RH BOTTOMED-OUT AT 10-15% ON FRIDAY.
TONIGHT: WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT (SUN MORNING) LOWS IN THE MID 20'S TO LOWER
30'S.
SUNDAY: WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL KS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE DAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
[1] THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN 850 MB RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND [2] ABSENCE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS / LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT IN CO WILL HINDER/DELAY THE ESTABLISHMENT OF
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND A MODEST WARMING
TREND, WITH HIGH'S IN THE UPPER 60'S TO LOWER 70'S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE IN WESTERN KS DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS A BROAD LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
CO. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
NEBRASKA. A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENESIS COULD FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS
OVER FAR N AND NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. AT PRESENT,
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT (MON MORNING) LOWS IN THE
30'S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
MONDAY, THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS PLACES US IN A
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S AND LOWS IN THE
30S. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) WILL
BE ON THE WARMER SIDE. GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES COULD SEE
SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES FORECAST IN THE HIGH TEENS AND
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. RH VALUES FOR THE
REST OF THE CWA ARE FORECAST IN THE 20S TO 30S, SO FIRE WEATHER
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
WE START TO SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT WEST OF
THE REGION. AS IT PROPOGATE EAST, A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH OUR REGION INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM
15-35% INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST. RAIN IS THE EXPECTED
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES, BUT
AREAS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX. BEGINNING
TUESDAY MORNING, POPS FURTHER INCREASE FROM 30-50% FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCES DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FORECAST THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL
CANADA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NEBRASKA. MODELS ARE ALSO DIFFERING
ON THE JET STREAM POSITION. THE GFS HAS THE JET FURTHER SOUTH,
RESULTING IN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET MERGING, WHICH THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE POLAR JET FURTHER NORTH. WHERE THE JET STREAM
AND LOW PRESSURE END UP SETTING UP, WILL DETERMINE OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE CERTAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE HIGH 70S TO 80S. NBM 75-25TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY HAVE A SPREAD AROUND 5 DEGREES F. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST SPECIFICS DUE TO THIS BEING THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND SIGNIFICANT MODEL VARIANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 10-15
KNOT NW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS, AT TIMES, OVERNIGHT. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
(~14-16Z) AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
DECREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNSET (~23Z).
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME EASTERLY OR VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET (~01Z SUN) AND REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
(~15-25 KNOT) NW WINDS MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT, EVENTUALLY DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS ON
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE (~12Z SAT). NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KNOTS W/GUSTS TO ~35 KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
(~14-16Z) AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
DECREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNSET (~23Z).
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET (~01Z SUN) AND REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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