495
FXUS63 KGLD 040900
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH TODAY.
- LIGHT WINDS/WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70'S ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AT 06Z THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST (TODAY) AND UPPER GREAT LAKES (TONIGHT). NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN-SUN NIGHT, BETWEEN A
WEST CONUS RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROUGH.
TODAY: MODEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW, WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY. IN SPITE OF A BAGGY AND ILL-DEFINED MSLP PATTERN, A
RELATIVELY TIGHT 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL, NEVERTHELESS,
SUPPLY THE 'RAW MATERIAL' (~30-35 KNOT NW FLOW) FOR VERTICAL
MIXING TO TRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT NW WINDS ~20-30 MPH. GUSTS TO ~40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON..
BEFORE THE 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT SLACKENS, LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WEAKENS TO ~25-30 KNOTS AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES BECOME MORE
HOMOGENOUS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 60'S AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AROUND 15-25%. FROM A FIRE WEATHER
STANDPOINT, RH APPEARS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY. FOR
COMPARISON, RH BOTTOMED-OUT AT 10-15% ON FRIDAY.
TONIGHT: WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT (SUN MORNING) LOWS IN THE MID 20'S TO LOWER
30'S.
SUNDAY: WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL KS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE DAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
[1] THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN 850 MB RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND [2] ABSENCE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS / LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT IN CO WILL HINDER/DELAY THE ESTABLISHMENT OF
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND A MODEST WARMING
TREND, WITH HIGH'S IN THE UPPER 60'S TO LOWER 70'S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE IN WESTERN KS DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS A BROAD LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
CO. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
NEBRASKA. A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENESIS COULD FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS
OVER FAR N AND NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. AT PRESENT,
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT (MON MORNING) LOWS IN THE
30'S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST REGION MONDAY MORNING, AS A 500-MB TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW BEGINS TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS PROCESS
OCCURS, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE TROUGH WILL
ENTER THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE HIGH
LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS NBM
75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS ARE 10-15 DEGREES. FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA
ARE IN THE LOWER-60S TO MID-70S MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
LOOKING TO EXPERIENCE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THIS RANGE.
HOWEVER, A SLOWER FRONT PROGRESSION COULD ALLOW THESE ZONES TO REACH
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER RANGE OF THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN THE UPPER-TEENS TO LOWER-20S FORECAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY A CONCERN ACROSS THIS AREA, AS FORECAST WIND GUSTS
IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE ARE NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE UP FOR THE RH VALUES
FAILING TO REACH THRESHOLDS FOR THE HAZARD. STILL, NBM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AROUND A ONE-IN-THREE TO ONE-IN-FOUR CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS
TO EXCEED 30 MPH IN THIS AREA, WHICH COULD INTRODUCE LOCALLY BRIEF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING
BEING NEEDED AT THIS TIME IS AROUND 5%.
AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE
EASTWARD MONDAY EVENING, IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SPLIT FLOW.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING,
WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SEEING
THE STRONGEST CHANCES (30-40%). THIS ZONE MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY,
WITH NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AROUND A 5-10% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
(>0.1 IN.) SNOWFALL. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE, WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS RANGE
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES IS INCREASING, THERE IS STILL A MODEST
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, WITH NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN THE 5-10 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD BE DUE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION,
OR UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP.
GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING, A 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLES
THIS FEATURE, AS IT MAY PARTIALLY MERGE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OFF THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST (SCENARIO 1), OR
CONTINUE EASTWARD AS ITS OWN INDEPENDENT SYSTEM (SCENARIO 2).
LREF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST ABOUT A 70% CHANCE IN SCENARIO 1 TO
OCCUR, AND A 30% CHANCE FOR SCENARIO 2. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
SCENARIO TAKES PLACE, WARM CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER-70S TO LOWER-80S. ADDITIONALLY, BROAD
TROUGHING APPEARS FAVORED TO SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING,
AND LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH, THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A WET PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON WHICH
SCENARIO OCCURS. SCENARIO 1 FAVORS A STRONGER, FASTER COLD FRONT
THAT COMES THROUGH SOMETIME WEDNESDAY, WHEREAS SCENARIO 2
FAVORS A WEAK, SLOWER-MOVING FRONT. NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE
DIFFERENCES IN MAX TEMPERATURE ARE LARGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, FROM 20-30 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, TO
10-20 DEGREES SATURDAY. FURTHER, EXACT LOCATIONS AND TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION TO BE EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
IS ENTIRELY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 10-15
KNOT NW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS, AT TIMES, OVERNIGHT. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
(~14-16Z) AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
DECREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNSET (~23Z).
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME EASTERLY OR VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET (~01Z SUN) AND REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
(~15-25 KNOT) NW WINDS MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT, EVENTUALLY DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS ON
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE (~12Z SAT). NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KNOTS W/GUSTS TO ~35 KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
(~14-16Z) AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
DECREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNSET (~23Z).
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET (~01Z SUN) AND REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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