700
FXUS63 KGLD 041626
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1026 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH TODAY.
- LIGHT WINDS/WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70'S ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AT 06Z THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST (TODAY) AND UPPER GREAT LAKES (TONIGHT). NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN-SUN NIGHT, BETWEEN A
WEST CONUS RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROUGH.
TODAY: MODEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW, WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY. IN SPITE OF A BAGGY AND ILL-DEFINED MSLP PATTERN, A
RELATIVELY TIGHT 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL, NEVERTHELESS,
SUPPLY THE 'RAW MATERIAL' (~30-35 KNOT NW FLOW) FOR VERTICAL
MIXING TO TRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT NW WINDS ~20-30 MPH. GUSTS TO ~40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON..
BEFORE THE 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT SLACKENS, LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WEAKENS TO ~25-30 KNOTS AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES BECOME MORE
HOMOGENOUS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 60'S AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AROUND 15-25%. FROM A FIRE WEATHER
STANDPOINT, RH APPEARS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY. FOR
COMPARISON, RH BOTTOMED-OUT AT 10-15% ON FRIDAY.
TONIGHT: WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT (SUN MORNING) LOWS IN THE MID 20'S TO LOWER
30'S.
SUNDAY: WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL KS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE DAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
[1] THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN 850 MB RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND [2] ABSENCE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS / LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT IN CO WILL HINDER/DELAY THE ESTABLISHMENT OF
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND A MODEST WARMING
TREND, WITH HIGH'S IN THE UPPER 60'S TO LOWER 70'S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE IN WESTERN KS DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS A BROAD LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
CO. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
NEBRASKA. A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENESIS COULD FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS
OVER FAR N AND NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. AT PRESENT,
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT (MON MORNING) LOWS IN THE
30'S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST REGION MONDAY MORNING, AS A 500-MB TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW BEGINS TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS
PROCESS OCCURS, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH WILL ENTER THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA. A COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST KANSAS ARE 10-15 DEGREES.
FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA ARE IN THE LOWER-60S TO MID-70S
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS LOOKING TO EXPERIENCE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THIS RANGE. HOWEVER, A SLOWER FRONT
PROGRESSION COULD ALLOW THESE ZONES TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
RANGE OF THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
UPPER-TEENS TO LOWER-20S FORECAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CURRENTLY A CONCERN ACROSS THIS AREA, AS FORECAST WIND GUSTS
IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE ARE NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE UP FOR THE RH
VALUES FAILING TO REACH THRESHOLDS FOR THE HAZARD. STILL, NBM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND A ONE-IN-THREE TO ONE-IN-FOUR CHANCE
FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 30 MPH IN THIS AREA, WHICH COULD
INTRODUCE LOCALLY BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED AT THIS TIME IS
AROUND 5%.
AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY EVENING, IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SPLIT
FLOW. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING, WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SEEING THE STRONGEST CHANCES (30-40%). THIS ZONE MAY
ALSO EXPERIENCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, WITH NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AROUND A
5-10% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE (>0.1 IN.) SNOWFALL. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS RANGE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES IS INCREASING, THERE IS STILL A MODEST AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY, WITH NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES IN THE 5-10 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS COULD BE DUE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION, OR
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP.
GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING, A 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
DIG ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHWEST CANADA.
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MODEL
GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS FEATURE, AS IT MAY PARTIALLY MERGE WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST
(SCENARIO 1), OR CONTINUE EASTWARD AS ITS OWN INDEPENDENT SYSTEM
(SCENARIO 2). LREF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST ABOUT A 70% CHANCE IN
SCENARIO 1 TO OCCUR, AND A 30% CHANCE FOR SCENARIO 2.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO TAKES PLACE, WARM CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER-70S TO LOWER-80S.
ADDITIONALLY, BROAD TROUGHING APPEARS FAVORED TO SET UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING, AND LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS SUCH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WET PERIOD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON WHICH SCENARIO OCCURS. SCENARIO 1 FAVORS A
STRONGER, FASTER COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY, WHEREAS SCENARIO 2 FAVORS A WEAK, SLOWER-MOVING
FRONT. NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE DIFFERENCES IN MAX TEMPERATURE
ARE LARGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, FROM 20-30
DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, TO 10-20 DEGREES SATURDAY. FURTHER,
EXACT LOCATIONS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION TO BE EXPERIENCED
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST IS ENTIRELY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING IN
THE 25-35 KTS RANGE UNTIL SUNSET, OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS A 10%
CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND KMCK BETWEEN 10-15Z
TOMORROW MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...CA
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