471
FXUS63 KGLD 051749
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1149 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD EASTER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND WIND BELOW 15 MPH.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION START MONDAY EVENING, CONTINUES OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
- TUESDAY MORNING, A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE, LEADING TO A LOW
CHANCE OF MINOR IMPACTS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISKS RETURN WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE,
BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS WE APPROACH TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL WARM TO AROUND 70 WITH WINDS LOOKING TO REMAIN UNDER 20
KTS, LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. TOMORROW, AN
850 MB LOW OVER COLORADO WILL CAUSE EASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES CAPPED IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE PICKING UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EVENING. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25-30 KTS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED BETWEEN 0-6Z MONDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT SEE THESE
STRONGER WINDS FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE AT SEEING
OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. ALSO, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
SURFACE LOW SETS UP, WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA MAY BE GUSTING
AROUND 25-30 KTS FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY.
THIS WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THAT AREA.
HOWEVER, THERE IS ONLY ABOUT 50% CONFIDENCE OF BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, SO NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AGAIN. A 500 MB
LOW WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, INTERRUPTING OUR
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE SCATTERED VORTICITY
ACROSS THE AREA, INTRODUCING FORCING INTO THE CWA AROUND 3-9Z
TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED 850 MB LOW WILL HAVE BEEN DRAWING IN
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES IS HOW
FAR SOUTH WILL THE MOISTURE EXPAND. AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY STANDS,
THE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURES LOOKS TO GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. 36. WHERE THIS BETTER MOISTURE SETS UP, POPS INCREASE.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BETTER 850 MB MOISTURE SETS UP.
HOWEVER, PLACES THAT DO GET PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN, WITH
SNOW MIXING IN CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THERE IS A 5% CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN OR ICE PELLETS DURING THE P-TYPE CHANGEOVER. EVEN THOUGH ONLY A
TRACE TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF QPF ARE EXPECTED, PATCHES OF SLICK
ELEVATED SURFACES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. WE COULD ALSO SEE
FOG AND STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO FREEZING FOG
OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THANKFULLY, ANY SLICK PATCHES WILL QUICKLY MELT AWAY AS TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL WARM TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WE SEE SHOULD BE ENDING BEFORE 18Z, AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND EJECTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD TAKE WITH IT
THE BULK OF THE 850 MB MOISTURE OVER THE CWA. THIS LIMITS THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY EVENING, BUT IF ANY MOISTURE
LINGERS, THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL VORTICITY THAT COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO 40, THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE AS SPLIT FLOW GIVES WAY TO MULTIPLE TROUGHS/WAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE PLAINS. WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR MULTIPLE WAVES,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOME WHAT STABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S. NEITHER A DEEP TROUGH OR REDEVELOPING RIDGE ARE FORECAST
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH OUR TEMPERATURES SWING. THE ONE THING
THAT COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND KEEP US A BIT COOLER IS IF
PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO FORM WITH THESE WAVES. WE CURRENTLY HAVE
CHANCES THROUGH MANY DAYS OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, MOST CHANCES
ARE LESS THAN 30% DUE TO BOTH HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND DRY AIR FORECAST
TO BE PERSISTENT NEAR THE SURFACE.
IN REGARDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY, THE FIRST MAJOR TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY HAS QUITE THE 500MB SPREAD
ON ENSEMBLES. THE DIFFERENCE IS WHETHER IT PUSHES THROUGH AS A
FASTER, MORE CONCENTRATED SYSTEM OR PULLS BACK AND LEADS TO OUR
UPSTREAM FLOW BEING MORE BROAD AND PERSISTENT TROUGHING. IN THE
FASTER SOLUTION, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE A BIT HIGHER WITH
BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND TEMPERATURES MAY FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ORGANIZED SHOT OF COLD AIR. IN THE
BROADER SOLUTION, THE MID-WEEK WOULD STILL HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, BUT WEAKER AND BROADER FORCING WOULDN'T LIKELY AMOUNT TO
MUCH WITH DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THE GEFS IS MORE 50/50 SPLIT
WHILE THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FAVORS THE FASTER SOLUTION. FOR NOW, AM
LEAVING THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
THOUGH I FEAR WE'LL BE DRIER GIVEN HOW THE SEASON HAS GONE SO FAR.
WE COULD ALSO THEN SEE SOME ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IF THE DRIER SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT.
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE NEXT MAJOR WAVES ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS UPPER LOWS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS WOULD DEVELOP BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
HIGH AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS, THE AREA WOULD SHIFT TO LOWER
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BETWEEN THIS PROVIDING SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION, ANY PRECIPITATION WE GET PRIOR WILL HELP MOISTEN
THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW THESE SYSTEMS TO HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRODUCING RAIN FOR THE AREA WITH LESS DRY AIR TO OVERCOME.
THE BIGGEST ISSUE/UNCERTAINTY IS THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW. IF IT
BECOMES MORE BACKED OR SLOWER AS SOME ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE
SUGGESTING, THIS COULD LEAD TO A DISJOINTED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE BAJA LOW WOULD PROBABLY
TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH SIMILAR TO EARLIER SYSTEMS THIS SEASON TO
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION. WHEREAS A COMBINED SYSTEM WOULD
TRACK THE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS AND HELP BRING FORCING TO
THE AREA WITHOUT COMPLETELY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY. SNOW
MAY MIX IN AT NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY LOWER TO NEAR
FREEZING, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST WITH PREVAILING
WARM CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FAIRLY
VARIABLE, FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FAVOR AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. TOMORROW DURING THE MIDDAY, WINDS WILL BE MORE
EASTERLY AND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS ARE FORECAST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
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