514
FXUS63 KGLD 060451
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1051 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD EASTER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND WIND BELOW 15 MPH.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION START MONDAY EVENING, CONTINUES OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
- TUESDAY MORNING, A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE, LEADING TO A LOW
CHANCE OF MINOR IMPACTS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISKS RETURN WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE,
BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS WE APPROACH TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL WARM TO AROUND 70 WITH WINDS LOOKING TO REMAIN UNDER 20
KTS, LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. TOMORROW, AN
850 MB LOW OVER COLORADO WILL CAUSE EASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES CAPPED IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE PICKING UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EVENING. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25-30 KTS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED BETWEEN 0-6Z MONDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT SEE THESE
STRONGER WINDS FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE AT SEEING
OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. ALSO, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
SURFACE LOW SETS UP, WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA MAY BE GUSTING
AROUND 25-30 KTS FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY.
THIS WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THAT AREA.
HOWEVER, THERE IS ONLY ABOUT 50% CONFIDENCE OF BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, SO NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AGAIN. A 500 MB
LOW WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, INTERRUPTING OUR
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE SCATTERED VORTICITY
ACROSS THE AREA, INTRODUCING FORCING INTO THE CWA AROUND 3-9Z
TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED 850 MB LOW WILL HAVE BEEN DRAWING IN
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES IS HOW
FAR SOUTH WILL THE MOISTURE EXPAND. AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY STANDS,
THE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURES LOOKS TO GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. 36. WHERE THIS BETTER MOISTURE SETS UP, POPS INCREASE.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BETTER 850 MB MOISTURE SETS UP.
HOWEVER, PLACES THAT DO GET PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN, WITH
SNOW MIXING IN CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THERE IS A 5% CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN OR ICE PELLETS DURING THE P-TYPE CHANGEOVER. EVEN THOUGH ONLY A
TRACE TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF QPF ARE EXPECTED, PATCHES OF SLICK
ELEVATED SURFACES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. WE COULD ALSO SEE
FOG AND STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO FREEZING FOG
OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THANKFULLY, ANY SLICK PATCHES WILL QUICKLY MELT AWAY AS TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL WARM TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WE SEE SHOULD BE ENDING BEFORE 18Z, AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND EJECTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD TAKE WITH IT
THE BULK OF THE 850 MB MOISTURE OVER THE CWA. THIS LIMITS THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY EVENING, BUT IF ANY MOISTURE
LINGERS, THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL VORTICITY THAT COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO 40, THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
WEDNESDAY, OUR REGION IS MOSTLY IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH A SPLIT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 70S TO 80S. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
(POPS) RANGING FROM 30 TO 60%, INCREASING WEST TO EAST. RAIN IS THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BASED ON
MUCAPE FORECAST OVER THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AROUND 18Z.
ENSEMBLES ARE ALIGNING WELL ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE JET STREAM FOR
WEDNESDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE MORE DIVIDED WITH AROUND HALF PLACING
THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN NEBRASKA WHILE THE OTHER HALF ARE JUST
NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. A MORE SOUTHERLY CENTER OF LOW
WOULD INCREASE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THURSDAY, WE REMAIN IN A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH A DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE
OF AN OVERNIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE HIGH
60S TO 70S.
AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PROPAGATES TOWARDS OUR
REGION, POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASES STARTING THURSDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. POPS RANGE FROM 40-70%
INCREASING WEST TO EAST. RAIN IS THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPE
BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES. MUCAPE OVER THE REGION AND
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION INCREASE CONFIDENCE THAT OUR REGION COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIGHT FOR THE NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES SOUTH. AROUND 14Z WINDS AT KMCK BECOME BREEZING,
REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF. KGLD REMAIN LIGHT
UNTIL LATER, CLOSER TO 19Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...JTL
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