789
FXUS63 KGLD 060827
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY FOR
THOSE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40.
- THERE IS ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING FOG OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE
NEBRASKA BORDER.
- THE AREA IS FORECAST TO HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHER CHANCES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAVE HAD THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THE WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 WHERE THE CENTER OF THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO. THESE AREAS COULD SEE WINDS LOWER TO
AROUND 10 MPH. THIS IS ALSO FORECAST TO HELP KEEP THIS AREA WARMER
IN THE 70S WITH MAYBE SOME 80S POSSIBLE. THIS DOES LEAD TO A TRICKY
SCENARIO WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOES LINE UP WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 60% AND I'M NOT SURE IF IT WOULD
BE FOR MULTIPLE HOURS. SO FOR NOW I'VE HELD OFF ON A RED FLAG
WARNING, BUT THOSE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTIONS
WITH FLAMES. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD ALSO PROBABLY USE EXTRA
CAUTION WITH FLAMES AS WELL DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS, BUT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S UNDER THE HIGHS SHOULD KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 20%.
THE INTERESTING WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND
THE HIGH TO THE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA CONTINUED EASTERLY
FLOW AND OFFSET SOME OF THE DRY AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN AS THE MAIN
BULK OF THE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN EMBEDDED TROUGH.
WITH COLDER AIR STILL MOVING INTO THE AREA, THIS IS FORECAST TO HELP
SATURATE SOME OF THE LOWER LEVELS. AS THE PRIOR DISCUSSION NOTED,
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE, BUT STILL LIMITED BY HOW MUCH 850-700MB
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE AVAILABLE. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT MAYBE SHIFT
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS NOT ONLY
FAVORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION (20-30%), BUT MAYBE
ALSO SOME FREEZING FOG OR MIST. GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
NOW ON THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER MOISTENING. THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, BUT IS UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION.
TUESDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WITH
THE SURFACE LOW STILL ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS. IT SHOULD
ACTUALLY EXPAND A BIT MORE INTO THE AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GETS
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO STABILIZE AROUND
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO CENTRAL
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AND HOW FAR IT MOVES IN. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING MORE LIMITED WITH ANY LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OR FOG DISSIPATING BY THE NOON HOUR. IN THIS CASE,
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S. IF THOSE
AREAS AROUND THE NEBRASKA BORDER CAN REMAIN UNDER FOG OR CLOUD COVER
AS GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE RAP SUGGEST, TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY BE ABLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY IN EITHER CASE AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST.
TOMORROW NIGHT, A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES IS FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH HOW THIS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN AND PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE AREA, BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH DUE TO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. THE CONDITIONS OF INTEREST IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WRAP IN ON THE FRONT SIDE
OF THE LOW. IF SO, SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY SEE FOG
DEVELOP.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
WEDNESDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
AXIS THAT IS SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS. AS ALLUDED TO AT THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION, GUIDANCE STILL IS SPLIT ON HOW FAST
THIS UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS. THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT ONLY IN THE
ENSEMBLE SPREADS, BUT EVEN BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF.
THIS DIFFERENCE IS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE DURING
THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING INTO THE
70S AND WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS MORE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IF
THE UPPER LOW TAKES THE MORE DELAYED/WESTERLY PATH, THEN THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH THE UPPER FORCING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LIKELY BACKED MORE INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IF THE
FASTER SOLUTION PLAYS OUT, THERE IS A CHANCE THE PRECIPITATION FORMS
OUT OF THE AREA OR FOR THOSE JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. IF THE STORMS
FORM IN OUR AREA, THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
LIKELY AS HAIL. THERE IS ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE FORECAST ALONG
WITH 40 KTS OF SHEAR. OTHERWISE, WIND GUSTS AREN'T VERY LIKELY GIVEN
WEAK FLOW AND TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK IS FORECAST TO HAVE THE AREA EITHER
UNDER ZONAL OR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE A
BIT COOLER AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
BEHIND WEDNESDAY SYSTEM WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE
60S. MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST WITH BOTH
SHORTWAVES POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER FLOW AND A CHANCE FOR AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND WRAP
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW LIKE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IS FAVORED PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. SHOULD ENOUGH MOISTURE
WRAP IN, FOG WOULD ALSO BECOME A CONCERN. FREEZING FOG OR PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY UNLIKELY AS DEWPOINTS WOULD LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING IN
SCENARIOS WHERE WE SATURATED ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION OR FOG.
THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MORE STOUT UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE ISSUE REMAINS WHETHER IT WILL SPLIT INTO A
MORE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN UNITED STATES SYSTEM OR IF IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AS A COMBINED SYSTEM. CLOSE TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIGHT FOR THE NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES SOUTH. AROUND 14Z WINDS AT KMCK BECOME BREEZING,
REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF. KGLD REMAIN LIGHT
UNTIL LATER, CLOSER TO 19Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JTL
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