256
FXUS63 KGLD 070524 AAD
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1124 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 40 THIS AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (< 15%) FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING
FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR THE KS-NE BORDER AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING.
- THE AREA IS FORECAST TO HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHER CHANCES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A MODEST W TO NW FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH THE TRI-STATE
AREA SITUATED BETWEEN TWO DISTINCT (NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM)
BRANCHES OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.
TODAY: CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST ASSOC/W A
SIZABLE THERMAL GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MODEST, NEAR-STATIONARY LEE CYCLONE OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70'S AT
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE WARM SECTOR (850 MB TEMPS 16 TO 18C)
IN GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 50'S AND LOWER 60'S IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WHERE 20-30 KNOT EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REINFORCE/MAINTAIN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS (850 MB TEMPS 4 TO
7C). CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN
GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE RH READINGS WILL
BRIEFLY BOTTOM-OUT ~10% AND BREEZY (20-30 MPH) SW WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 40 MPH.
TONIGHT: BREEZY E WINDS WILL ENVELOPE MUCH OF THE GOODLAND CWA
THIS EVENING AS THE LEE CYCLONE MEANDERS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CO. BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER /CIRRUS/ IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CEILINGS
/STRATUS/ OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT KS BORDER COUNTIES WHERE A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL EXIST AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS VIA THE GFS, HRRR AND RAP ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF
PRECIPITATION. IF LIGHT PRECIP WERE TO DEVELOP IN FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NORTH OF HWY 36), WHERE THE ICE NUCLEATION
ZONE IS UNLIKELY TO BE SATURATED AND SURFACE WETBULB
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 30-31F ARE POSSIBLE SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE (~09-12Z TUE), THEN.. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM
30-40F, WARMEST SOUTH.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AT 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN FAR-REMOVED FROM
THE TRI-STATE AREA AS IT TRACKS E-ESE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES (TONIGHT), CENTRAL TX (TUE) AND
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY (TUE NIGHT). WITH AN INCREASINGLY
HOMOGENOUS AIRMASS / DECREASING BAROCLINICITY AND ABSENT UPPER
FORCING, THE MODEST LEE CYCLONE IN VICINITY OF THE CO-KS WILL
WEAKEN INTO A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CO AND FAR
WESTERN KS. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM ~70F (NORTH) TO ~80F
(SOUTH).. WITH BREEZY (~20-30 MPH) S TO SSW WINDS CONFINED EAST
AND SOUTH OF GOODLAND.. AND OVERNIGHT (WED MORNING) LOWS IN THE
MID-UPPER 40'S.
WED-WED NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUE EVE-NIGHT THEN
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER ON WED. A MODEST COLD FRONT
ASSOC/W THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW IN FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH FOCUSED UPPER FORCING PASSING WELL NORTH OF TRI-
STATE AREA.. AND GUIDANCE INDICATING VERY WEAK (~5-10 KNOT)
LOW- LEVEL FLOW (THUS, WEAK CONVERGENCE) IN VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASSOC/W A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ IN CENTRAL KS
COULD POTENTIALLY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SW-NE OR W-E ORIENTED STALLED FRONT
DURING THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME, MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS UNCLEAR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
THURSDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST IN A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW WITH A DEEPENING LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S TO 80S. WE START TO SEE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, FAVORING THE EASTERN CWA. THERE ARE AROUND
1000 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) AROUND 50-60% OVERNIGHT FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA.
CONDITIONS ARE COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN
THE 60S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. AROUND
200 J/KG OF CAPE IS FORECAST AS WELL AS WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AND PROPAGATE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. ENSEMBLES ARE
CURRENTLY IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW.
WHERE THIS SETS UP WILL DETERMINE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
BUT BASED ON INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE
FORCING, WE WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. KGLD WILL SEE CEILINGS DROPPING TO AROUND 2,000
FEET AGL 13-15Z. KMCK WILL START SEEING MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
0930Z, DETERIORATING TO IFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
11-13Z. CONDITIONS LOOK TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 13Z, BUT IT
COULD BE UNTIL ABOUT NOON THAT VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
ALL NIGHT TONIGHT, KGLD COULD (20% CHANCE) SEE WEAK SHOWERS
LEADING TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL. ICING CONDITIONS WILL BE A NOTABLE
HAZARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
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