927
FXUS63 KGLD 070759
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (30%) FOR FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE FOR COUNTIES NEAR THE NE BORDER AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING.
- THE AREA IS FORECAST TO HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHER CHANCES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
- LOW CHANCE (<10%) FOR EITHER DRY LIGHTNING OR A SEVERE STORM
ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 157 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE AREA UNDER BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. WITH THIS,
WINDS HAVE STILL BEEN FROM THE EAST AT 15-25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
35 MPH. WINDS SHOULD LOWER TO 5-15 MPH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE
SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND BROADENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PULLS EAST. MEANWHILE, THE EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO NEAR 30 IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME, TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY BEEN COOLING WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. THIS WILL STILL GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE FOR FREEZING FOG
CLOSE TO SUNRISE, ALONG WITH MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING MIST
WITH A 850-700MB JUST UPSTREAM OF THE AREA. CHANCES REMAIN AROUND
30% FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER AND LOWER QUICKLY THE
FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO AS THE INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER AND HIGH BASED
SPRINKLES MAY BE ENOUGH TO MIX THE FOG OUT OR KEEP THE DEWPOINT
SPREAD CLOSER TO 5-7 DEGREES. BE ALERT FOR MAYBE A FEW SLICK SPOTS,
THOUGH THE RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE MOST OF THE
HAZARDS.
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IS FORECAST TO SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR AND
PRECIP CHANCES END AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES PUSH THE MOISTURE EAST.
AREAS THAT CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 70S, WHILE THOSE WHO REMAIN CLOUD COVERED FOR MOST OF THE DAY
MAY ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
TONIGHT, THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS IT DOES SO, THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH EAST AND INTO THE AREA. THIS IS FORECAST
TO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH
FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE SKIES SHOULD BE A BIT CLEARER
SHORT OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS, THE WINDS MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S.
WEDNESDAY, MOST GUIDANCE NOW FAVORS THE UPPER LOW TO PUSH THROUGH
FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS FORECAST
TO PUSH THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SOMEWHAT QUICKLY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM TRIBUNE, KS TO HILL CITY, KS BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT A BIT. THIS UNFORTUNATELY LIMITS THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE CONFINED ROUGHLY TO THE CITIES ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
LINE. THE ONLY BENEFIT IS THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAVE ALSO
LOWERED FOR THE AREA, THOUGH IS STILL NOT ZERO. THERE ARE STILL
ABOUT 15% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A FEW DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
THAT HAVE THE LINE PULLED FARTHER WEST, AFFECTING MORE OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THE FRONT AND DRY AIR BEING
PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY
LIGHTNING. WHILE NOT A GREAT CHANCE, GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT SOME
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO PUSH IN BEHIND FROM THE WEST. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP BEHIND THE LINE, IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND
COULD POSE A FIRE THREAT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD IN THE 70S WITH MAYBE A FEW 60S FURTHER NORTH
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10-
25 MPH.
TOMORROW NIGHT, A MIX OF CLEAR AND CLOUDY SKIES IS FORECAST WITH THE
HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. WITH A LITTLE COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS LIGHTENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER AWAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S WITH NORTHER PARTS OF THE AREA
NEARING OR REACHING FREEZING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS WITH THE AREA INITIALLY UNDER ZONAL
FLOW THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT TIMING WILL ALLOW
THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE EVENT THE 80S IN THE SOUTH
BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT THE TROUGH MAY PUSH IN A BIT FASTER, BUT THAT WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO INCREASE THE WINDS A BIT AND LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER A LINGERING
SURFACE LOW WHICH WOULD KEEP THE WINDS AROUND 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO START IN THE 30S BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH FROM THURSDAY. THEY THEN SHOULD
WARM THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE 50S, WITH BOTH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CAPPING THE TEMPERATURES. AS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION ITSELF, THE FRONT AND COLDER AIR ARE FORECAST TO
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY EARLY FRIDAY.
REINFORCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO KEEP CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. FOG
WILL ALSO BECOME A POSSIBILITY IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE AREA IS ACTUALLY FORECAST TO HAVE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AROUND 60%, WITH THE MAIN INHIBITOR BEING IF THE FRONT
PUSHES TOO FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AS THE
UPPER TROUGH HAS MORE OF A EASTERLY TRACK.
THE WEEKEND REMAINS INTERESTING, BUT UNCLEAR AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGHING AND/OR CUTOFF LOWS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THE ISSUE IS HOW THESE
FEATURES INTERACT AND ADVANCE EAST VARY IN ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. FOR NOW, AS LONG AS THE UPPER SYSTEMS DON'T
DIP TOO FAR SOUTH, THE AREA SHOULD HAVE MULTIPLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 80S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. AS
FOR EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW MUCH, IT'S A LITTLE TOO VARIABLE TO PIN
DOWN RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. KGLD WILL SEE CEILINGS DROPPING TO AROUND 2,000
FEET AGL 13-15Z. KMCK WILL START SEEING MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
0930Z, DETERIORATING TO IFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
11-13Z. CONDITIONS LOOK TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 13Z, BUT IT
COULD BE UNTIL ABOUT NOON THAT VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
ALL NIGHT TONIGHT, KGLD COULD (20% CHANCE) SEE WEAK SHOWERS
LEADING TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL. ICING CONDITIONS WILL BE A NOTABLE
HAZARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
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