147
FXUS63 KGLD 072338
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE AREA IS FORECAST TO HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHER CHANCES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE LINE IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS. IF STORMS DEVELOP, HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CAMS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE
AREA, THOUGH THE NAMNEST INITIATES AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER, AND
THUS FURTHER NORTH, COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS, LEAVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A HILL CITY TO
TRIBUNE LINE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEAK INSTABILITY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 500
J/KG, THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AT
AROUND 30-40KTS AT 21Z AND INCREASING TO 40-50KTS BY 00Z IF AN
UPDRAFT IS STILL IN THE AREA AT THAT TIME. FURTHER WEST, THERE
WILL BE A WINDOW FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
WESTERN KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO BETWEEN
16-23Z WHERE WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10%. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS STAY BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS WITH PEAK MEAN GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH AND
PERHAPS A SPORADIC GUST TO 25 MPH AROUND MID AFTERNOON WITH
DEEPEST MIXING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT,
BUT CAMS ARE MOSTLY DRY WITH NBM POPS DRIVEN BY THE SLIGHTLY
WETTER, AND PROBABLY OVERDONE, ECMWF. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE WARMEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE
UPPER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE, COOLING TO THE UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER AREA.
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH EMBEDDED WEAK WAVES COMING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BY
THE AFTERNOON IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
25-35KTS. BEST COMBINATION OF THOSE PARAMETERS WILL BE IN
EASTERN AREAS WHERE COULD SEE A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM WITH
HAIL BEING THE MAIN RISK. BETTER MOISTURE, DEW POINTS IN THE
50S, WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER, WHERE THE
OLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. MAY SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER
CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT IN EASTERN AREAS AS A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT IN CENTRAL KANSAS. MEAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE 0.10" TO 0.25" GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83,
AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.
ZONAL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO CALIFORNIA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL KEEP THE AREA MOIST WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THE OLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THOSE STORMS WILL BE MOVING NORTH WITH THE MEAN WIND
POTENTIALLY INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70, WHERE THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE COOLER AND MORE STABLE CAUSING STORMS TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN. THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON
FRIDAY, MAINLY WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION, WHICH WILL IMPACT
STORM CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY (70S), THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY (50S) DUE TO CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN EMERGE ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW, WILL SEE A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SATURDAY WILL SEE THE BEST COMBINATION
OF LIFT, INSTABILTY AND SHEAR FOR A SEVERE WEATHER RISK. WEAK
TO PERHAPS MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST (90TH PERCENTILES
ARE ABOVE 1500 J/KG) ALONG WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE SEVERE RISK ON SUNDAY IS MORE UNCERTAIN, AS MOST MODELS
SUGGESTING THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SWEPT EAST OF THE AREA WITH
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS. TIMING IS
THE MAIN UNCERTAINLY AS ECMWF SHOWS THAT THE INSTABILITY AXIS
MAY LINGER IN EASTERN AREAS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
DRYING TAKES PLACE. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WILL BE WATCHING FOR
THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY FORECAST, SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON TUESDAY, MAINLY
IN COLORADO, WITH A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO,
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE AND LITTLE TO NO
SNOW. MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TRENDS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY (HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S, PERHAPS
A FEW 80S), THEN COOLING OFF BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (50S). LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT, COOLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
KGLD AND KMCK. WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. KMCK IS FORECAST TO SEE GUSTY WINDS RETURN
AROUND 6Z. IF THE GUSTS DO NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE, LLWS AT
200-400 FEET AGL WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 45 KTS, UNTIL
ABOUT 13-15Z. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR BOTH SITES, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA
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