148
FXUS63 KGLD 212005
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
205 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10% AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH ARE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A DRY LINE LOCATED IN THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER AREA.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN THURSDAY FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
TODAY, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 80S AND LOW 90S UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
MOVING OVER THE PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS WITH FEW GUSTS DUE TO
WEAK FLOW FORECAST ALOFT. THE MAIN THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY IS
A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH A DRYLINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
ARAPAHOE, CO TO NORTON, KS. IF THE DRYLINE IS ABLE TO HELP IGNITE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS, THEY WOULD LIKELY FORM BETWEEN 1-4PM MT AND MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE EAST. SEVERE HAZARDS ARE UNLIKELY, BUT WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST WHILE AN UPPER LOW
PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE HEIGHT
GRADIENTS WHILE ALSO DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW AND INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS. THE INCREASE IN WINDS SHOULD BE MODEST, BUT ENOUGH TO
KEEP SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH. WITH THE
WINDS HELPING TO MIX THE LOW LEVELS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE 50S WITH MAYBE A FEW 40S.
WEDNESDAY, THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE HAZARDS,
THOUGH THE FORECAST POSITIONING OF THE DRYLINE IS LOWERING THE
CHANCES FOR BOTH DUST AND FIRE. AS NOTED BY THE PRIOR SHIFT AND IN
CONTRAST TO 24 HOURS AGO, THE DRYLINE IS NOW FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 59 AND HIGHWAY 385 IN COLORADO. THERE ARE STILL SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT COULD BE AS FAR EAST AS
HIGHWAY 83, BUT THE CONSENSUS IS GENERALLY IN EASTERN COLORADO. WITH
THIS PLACEMENT, THE DRY AIR WOULD THEN BE CONFINED TO EASTERN
COLORADO AND BE A LITTLE SLOWER IN HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES IN. STILL,
THE DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ENOUGH TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. COMBINING THIS WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45
MPH AS BOTH THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL TROUGHS DEEPEN, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WILL SLIGHTLY LOWER OF A CHANCE,
PARTS OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN ENOUGH
DRY AIR TO HAVE RH DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. WITH ALL OF THIS, HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEPENDING ON STORM
ACTIVITY, AREAS MAY NOT SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FULLY RECOVER UNTIL
LATE IN THE EVENING. AS SUCH, THE WARNING LASTS INTO THE EVENING. AS
FOR THE DUST THREAT, THE THREAT IS NOW 20% OR LESS THAT THERE WOULD
BE MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTORS ARE THAT THE
SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE TOO LIGHT AROUND 20-30 MPH (NOT ALLOWING MUCH
DUST TO LOFT) AND THAT THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE OVER MIXED (ALLOWING
DUST TO JUST LOFT AND NOT CONCENTRATE. THE BEST AREA RIGHT NOW LOOKS
TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON, NE TO GRINNELL, KS.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THE FORECAST STILL HAS STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THESE STORMS
DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD BE PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS THAT DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD DISSIPATE THE STORMS SOMEWHAT QUICKLY. IN
THIS CASE, THERE MAY BE AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF LARGE HAIL WHEN STORMS
FIRST FORM, BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE WOULD BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 65-70 MPH
AS STORMS DECAY. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT AND WE HAVE MORE MOISTURE,
THEN ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2.5" WOULD BE
THE MAIN HAZARD, BUT WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AND MAYBE A TORNADO OR
TWO COULD ALSO FORM. I AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS,
SO WIND IS THE CURRENT MAIN THREAT. THESE STORMS SHOULD EITHER
DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 10PM CT.
THURSDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
AFTER IS PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL BE AFTER IT PASSES THE AREA AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHETHER THE MAIN TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OR
DEEPEN AND DRAG THROUGH MORE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NOW, THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THE TROUGH DEEPENING ENOUGH FOR THE LOW TO
DEEPEN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT TIGHT. WITH THIS, WINDS OF 15-25 MPH FROM THE NORTH ARE
FORECAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TEENS AGAIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AGAIN, THE THING THAT COULD CHANGE THIS IS HOW DEEP THE LOW
GETS. IF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND WE GET MORE OF AN OPEN
SURFACE WAVE, WINDS COULD BE LOWER AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS A
LITTLE LESS LIKELY. OVERALL, THE CHANCE IS ABOUT 65% THAT WE SEE
MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT COOLER IN THE 70S WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH, BUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE UNLIKELY.
FRIDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS FROM AN UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THAT THEN WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS, THIS IS FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY THE
SAME AS THURSDAY IN THE 70S WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5-15 MPH, BUT COULD REACH 25 MPH
GUST 35 MPH IN EASTERN COLORADO, CLOSER TO THE FORECAST LOW. IF THE
LOW DOES TRACK NEAR/THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY, SOME STORMS
MAY DEVELOP AND TRY AND PUSH EAST DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR IS
IN PLACE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD APPEARS FAIRLY CONSISTENT. SATURDAY, OUR REGION
IS FORECAST IN A DEEP TROUGHING PATTERN WITH A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST IN
THE 60S TO 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). CONVECTIVE FORCING IS MARGINAL FOR
SUNDAY, BUT WITH 500 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST FOR THE AREA, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM.
BY MONDAY, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE PLACING OUR REGION IN A MORE ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S FOR TUESDAY. AS
THE LOW PROPAGATES EAST, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH OUR
AREA BRINGING AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM AROUND 20-40% FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA.
CURRENTLY, CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW, THROUGH CONFIDENCE
DECREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE THAT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10-12Z AND LOWERS CEILINGS TO
AROUND 200-500FT. OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES OR HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE
10000FT ARE FORECAST. BE ALERT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT
AFTER 03Z, ESPECIALLY AT KMCK. WINDS AROUND 200-400FT ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-40 KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ001>003-
013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...KAK
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