172
FXUS63 KGLD 221716
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1116 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10% AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH ARE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A DRY LINE LOCATED IN THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER AREA.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT, MAINLY ALONG THE STATE
BORDERS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CONSEQUENTIAL CHANGES NOTED ON
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. DRY LINE REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN 19-21Z THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY IN THE
COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER AREA, PERHAPS A BIT WEST INTO
COLORADO. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW THROUGH
ABOUT 00-01Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. ENVIRONMENT FAVORS HIGH-BASED
STORMS AT AROUND 12KFT, WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG. SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD, WITH BLOWING DUST AND LOCALIZED DUST STORMS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE DOWNDRAFT. THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE LITTLE, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION AT THE GROUND, WITH
A RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING ACTING AS A TRIGGER FOR WILDFIRES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT DRY FUELS. MAIN AREA TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE
STORMS WILL BE COLORADO AND EAST TO ABOUT HIGHWAY 25, WITH AREAS
FURTHER EAST LESS LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS AS THE STORMS WEAKEN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR WEST OF THE DRY LINE WHICH WILL SET UP IN
COLORADO BY LATE IN THE MORNING AND PERHAPS MAKE IT AS FAR EAST
AS HIGHWAY 27 BY 21Z. EAST OF THE DRY LINE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE MARGINAL AS FAR AS MEETING 15% CRITERIA
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY, BUT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
COMMON, AND THERE IS AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING AS
WELL. SO, WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FAIRLY DECENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS, BLOWING DUST AND LOCALIZED
DUST STORMS, AND DRY LIGHTNING. THERE IS NO SURFACE FOCUSING
MECHANISM ON THURSDAY, SO THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, ALTHOUGH CAMS DO SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT
FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SHOWERS AND STORMS
DIMINISH AND WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DESPITE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
(HIGHS IN THE 70S), AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO
NEAR 10% IN THE ENTIRE AREA. WIND GUSTS ARE STRONGEST IN THE
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, AND BY THE TIME OF LOWEST HUMIDITY MEAN GUSTS ARE ONLY
AROUND 20 MPH (OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS). FOR
THIS REASON DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH THERE IS THE DRY LIGHTNING TO CONSIDER AND THAT MAY
BE A HEDGE FACTOR IN FAVOR OF ONE.
FRIDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS FROM AN UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THAT THEN WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS, THIS IS FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY THE
SAME AS THURSDAY IN THE 70S WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5-15 MPH, BUT COULD REACH 25 MPH
GUST 35 MPH IN EASTERN COLORADO, CLOSER TO THE FORECAST LOW. IF THE
LOW DOES TRACK NEAR/THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY, SOME STORMS
MAY DEVELOP AND TRY AND PUSH EAST DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR IS
IN PLACE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD APPEARS FAIRLY CONSISTENT. SATURDAY, OUR REGION
IS FORECAST IN A DEEP TROUGHING PATTERN WITH A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST IN
THE 60S TO 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). CONVECTIVE FORCING IS MARGINAL FOR
SUNDAY, BUT WITH 500 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST FOR THE AREA, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM.
BY MONDAY, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE PLACING OUR REGION IN A MORE ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S FOR TUESDAY. AS
THE LOW PROPAGATES EAST, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH OUR
AREA BRINGING AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM AROUND 20-40% FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA.
CURRENTLY, CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW, THROUGH CONFIDENCE
DECREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES
WITH EITHER CLEAR SKIES OR CLOUDS ABOVE 7500FT. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR STORMS AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 19-01Z, THOUGH THE
CHANCE IS AROUND 15%. BE ADVISED THAT STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH HAIL AROUND AN INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH. STORMS ALSO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP OVER THE KGLD TERMINAL. THIS
EVENING, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH SPEEDS AROUND
40-50 KTS AT 200-400 FEET. WINDS SHOULD LOWER AND SHIFT TO OUT
OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND A FRONT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS
WELL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
KSZ001>004.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ252>254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
NEZ079>081.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM
CDT/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024/KAK
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...KAK
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