538
FXUS63 KGLD 222253
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
453 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10% AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH ARE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A DRY LINE LOCATED IN THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER AREA.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT, MAINLY ALONG THE STATE
BORDERS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN DURING THE MORNINGS THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
A DRYLINE HAS TAKEN SHAPE AROUND LIMON, COLORADO AND IS FORECAST TO
PUSH EAST TO THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRYLINE REMAINS THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION AS
BEHIND IT WILL HAVE THE WORST OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WHILE AHEAD OF IT REMAINS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARDS THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, WHILE JUST AHEAD OF IT
IS FORECAST TO HAVE VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THIS HAS LOWERED
THE CHANCE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO HAVE MULTIPLE HOURS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A
CHANCE SO THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. TILL THE WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS SETUP THOUGH, EXPECT SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS
(AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS YEAR).
IN REGARD TO THE STORMS, CHANCES HAVE LOWERED TO ABOUT 25% THAT WE
SEE STORMS AND/OR THAT THEY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION OR SEVERE HAZARDS. WHILE WE ARE MORE MOIST AT THE
SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, THE
LAYER BETWEEN 850-500MB IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY DRY. THIS IS
FORECAST TO HINDER STORMS DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE BY ENTRAINING
DRY AIR. EVEN IF A STORM DOES FORM, ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY
EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE SURFACE. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP AND HOLD TOGETHER, THEY WOULD BE IN A FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT OF 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
8.5-9.0 C/KM. COMBINING THIS WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS COULD
ALLOW A STORM TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, MAYBE UP TO 2.00". THERE COULD
ALSO BE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WITH THE DRY LOW-MID LEVELS
ALLOWING FOR EVAPORATIVE ENHANCEMENT. TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY WITH
HIGH LCLS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
TONIGHT, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AND LOWER TO AROUND 10-15 MPH AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE
40 WITH THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR FORECAST TO BE BACK A BIT FROM
THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THURSDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
AFTER IT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL BE AFTER IT PASSES THE AREA AS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHETHER THE MAIN TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OR DEEPEN
AND DRAG THROUGH MORE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST
REFLECTS THE TROUGH DEEPENING ENOUGH FOR THE LOW TO DEEPEN JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT TIGHT.
WITH THIS, WINDS OF 15-25 MPH FROM THE NORTH ARE FORECAST WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH FOR COUNTIES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70. WITH THE DRY AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM, RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TEENS AGAIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH THIS, HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER AND
EASTERN COLORADO. IF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND WE GET MORE OF
AN OPEN SURFACE WAVE, WINDS COULD BE LOWER AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS A
LITTLE LESS LIKELY FOR THOSE IN NW KANSAS. OVERALL, THE CHANCE IS
ABOUT 80% THAT WE SEE MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT COOLER IN THE 60S
70S WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THE OTHER THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TOMORROW IS SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. WHILE TOO DRY FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OR A HAIL THREAT, THESE SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE A FEW WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH AS THEY DECAY. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL HAZARD IS DRY LIGHTNING IF A CELL COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
WHAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY THERE IS TO BRIEFLY BECOME A STORM.
FRIDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS FROM AN UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THAT THEN WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS, THIS IS FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY THE
SAME AS THURSDAY IN THE 70S WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5-15 MPH, BUT COULD REACH 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN EASTERN COLORADO, CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
LOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO YET MORE CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, BUT A BIT MORE LIMITED IN AERIAL COVERAGE. IF THE LOW
DOES TRACK NEAR/THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY, SOME STORMS MAY
DEVELOP AND TRY AND PUSH EAST DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR IS IN
PLACE.
SATURDAY, MOST OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DOESN'T NEAR THE AREA, SATURDAY SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH THE AREA
SLIGHTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH IN THE UPPER WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS LONG AS
TEMPERATURES DON'T GET TOO HIGH, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE UNLIKELY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER TEENS OR
HIGHER. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW 25 MPH,
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE WEST THAT
COULD GUST TO 35 MPH. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA IN THE WRAP AROUND
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. CHANCES WILL INCREASE IF ONE OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVES MOVES NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA. THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WHILE
FORECAST PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS, THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MUCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8 C/KM, SUGGESTING SOME INSTABILITY. THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR
IS THE 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AROUND 45 KTS WHICH WOULD HELP
SUPERCELLS DEVELOP. IF THEY DID DEVELOP LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
ONE FINAL THING TO NOTE, THE COOLER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO GET TO FREEZING STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY, THE MIX OF CLOUDS, WIND, AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA ABOVE FREEZING. THAT BEING SAID, THOSE ALONG THE
COLORADO AND NEBRASKA BORDER COULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S CLOSE TO SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
SUNDAY, OUR REGION STARTS OFF UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO
40S. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM 50-90%, WITH THE NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) ON THE HIGHER SIDE. WE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS AS
CAPE FORECAST OVER THE REGION, BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH AND WHERE THE CAPE WILL BE. ECMWF SHOWS 400-1000 J/KG OF CAPE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY, WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE SPORADIC CAPE
OVER THE EASTERN CWA MAXING OUT AROUND 300 J/KG. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SPECIFICS DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT, BUT WE COULD SEE SMALL HAIL IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM.
BY MONDAY, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. THIS PLACES OUR REGION IN A MORE
ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. AS THE LOW PROPAGATES EAST, SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AFTERNOON CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. POPS RANGE FROM 20-40% FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW BASED ON LACK OF FORCINGS. WHETHER
STORMS FORM OR NOT, WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN MONDAY AS A JET STREAK
SETS UP OVER OUR CWA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF
25-40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE NORTHEAST CWA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE
HIGHER END OF WIND GUSTS.
OVERALL, TUESDAY'S FORECAST IS DRIER COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES AND POPS ARE TRENDING DOWN
WHILE WINDS HAVE SWITCHED DIRECTIONS AND GONE UP. RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE HIGH TEENS TO 20S AND WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH
FOR THE WESTERN CWA. WE COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER IN
SUBSEQUENT RUNS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON, WE COULD SEE A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AROUND THE WEST COAST MOVES
TOWARDS OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT
AND THIS BEING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH SITES
WITH EITHER CLOUDS ABOVE 10000FT OR CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z. AROUND THAT TIME A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AND
SWITCH WINDS TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WINDS MAY LOWER TO 15 KTS.
BE ALERT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH WINDS AROUND 300FT
INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS. KMCK HAS THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A STORM AFTER 1
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
KSZ001>004.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ252>254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
NEZ079>081.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM
CDT/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...KAK
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