000
FXUS63 KGLD 230630
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1230 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS COUNTIES BORDERING BOTH COLORADO AND NEBRASKA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10% AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 25 TO 35 MPH.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND BORDERING
COUNTIES IN KANSAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
AN UPPER LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET WILL MEANDER AROUND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES AND VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR OCCASIONAL PRECIPIATION CHANCES.
HOWEVER, EVEN IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS, VERY DRY LOW AND MID
LEVELS WILL LIMIT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS,
WHERE IT DOES OCCUR. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THE
HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE UPDRAFTS AND MUCAPE OF 100 J/KG OR
LESS, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THAT BEING SAID, STILL
WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE GUST WITH
DCAPE FORECAST TO BE 500-1000 J/KG BOTH DAYS.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TODAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL REACH THE 15% THRESHOLD BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND BY MID
AFTERNOON THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE VALUES OF 5-10%.
DISCRIMINATOR FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE WIND SPEEDS.
MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT OCCURING THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO NORTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT, ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS TO 25-35
MPH. THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THAT FEATURE IN COLORADO, POSSIBLY TIED TO AN EVER SO SUBTLE
WIND MAX COMING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CURRRENT
RED FLAG WARNING MOSTLY CAPTURES WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY TO REACH THE 25 MPH CRITERIA FOR 3 HOURS, WITH THE SOLE
EXCEPTION OF SHERMAN AND WALLACE COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
WHICH WILL SEE THE WIND INCREASES TOWARD MID AFTERNOON AS
MENTIONED. SO PLAN ON ADDING THOSE TWO COUNTIES. GAVE SOME
THOUGHT TO GREELEY COUNTY AS WELL, BUT THE HIGHER WINDS DO NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY NOT REACH THE 3 HOUR
CRITERIA THERE BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER ABOUT 22Z.
A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TURN SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA (ROUGHLY WEST OF A WRAY, COLORADO, TO SCOTT CITY, KANSAS,
LINE). THIS IS THE SAME AREA THAT WILL SEE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
35 MPH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SOMEWHAT LATER ONSET OF THE
STRONGER WINDS, MAINLY AFTER 20Z, MAY LIMIT ONLY THE WESTERN
AREAS TO 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY COLORADO,
THOUGH THE BORDER COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WILL BE VERY
CLOSE AS WELL. WITH MULTIPLE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN
EFFECT, WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON COMPLICATING MATTERS WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS FOR FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
SATURDAY, MOST OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DOESN'T NEAR THE AREA, SATURDAY SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH THE AREA
SLIGHTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH IN THE UPPER WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS LONG AS
TEMPERATURES DON'T GET TOO HIGH, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE UNLIKELY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER TEENS OR
HIGHER. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW 25 MPH,
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE WEST THAT
COULD GUST TO 35 MPH. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA IN THE WRAP AROUND
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. CHANCES WILL INCREASE IF ONE OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVES MOVES NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA. THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WHILE
FORECAST PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS, THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MUCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8 C/KM, SUGGESTING SOME INSTABILITY. THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR
IS THE 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AROUND 45 KTS WHICH WOULD HELP
SUPERCELLS DEVELOP. IF THEY DID DEVELOP LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY, OUR REGION STARTS OFF UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO
40S. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM 50-90%, WITH THE NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) ON THE HIGHER SIDE. WE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS AS
CAPE FORECAST OVER THE REGION, BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH AND WHERE THE CAPE WILL BE. ECMWF SHOWS 400-1000 J/KG OF CAPE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY, WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE SPORADIC CAPE
OVER THE EASTERN CWA MAXING OUT AROUND 300 J/KG. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SPECIFICS DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT, BUT WE COULD SEE SMALL HAIL IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM.
BY MONDAY, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. THIS PLACES OUR REGION IN A MORE
ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. AS THE LOW PROPAGATES EAST, SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AFTERNOON CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. POPS RANGE FROM 20-40% FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW BASED ON LACK OF FORCINGS. WHETHER
STORMS FORM OR NOT, WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN MONDAY AS A JET STREAK
SETS UP OVER OUR CWA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF
25-40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE NORTHEAST CWA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE
HIGHER END OF WIND GUSTS.
OVERALL, TUESDAY'S FORECAST IS DRIER COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES AND POPS ARE TRENDING DOWN
WHILE WINDS HAVE SWITCHED DIRECTIONS AND GONE UP. RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE HIGH TEENS TO 20S AND WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH
FOR THE WESTERN CWA. WE COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER IN
SUBSEQUENT RUNS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON, WE COULD SEE A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AROUND THE WEST COAST MOVES
TOWARDS OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT
AND THIS BEING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED VIRGA/SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORIES, THOUGH
MAY SEE SOME BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS IF ONE MANAGES TO PASS NEARBY
(LESS THAN 20% CHANCE).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED VIRGA/SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORIES, THOUGH
MAY SEE SOME BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS IF ONE MANAGES TO PASS NEARBY
(LESS THAN 20% CHANCE).
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7
PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013-027.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7
PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK/RHOADES
AVIATION...024
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