315
FXUS63 KGLD 231816
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1216 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO,
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND KANSAS COUNTIES BORDERING BOTH
COLORADO AND NEBRASKA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO AROUND
10% AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35 MPH.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND BORDERING
COUNTIES IN KANSAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
AN UPPER LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET WILL MEANDER AROUND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES AND VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. HOWEVER, EVEN IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS, VERY DRY LOW
AND MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS TO ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS, WHERE IT DOES OCCUR. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE UPDRAFTS AND MUCAPE OF 100
J/KG OR LESS, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THAT BEING SAID,
STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE GUST WITH
DCAPE FORECAST TO BE 500-1000 J/KG BOTH DAYS.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TODAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL REACH THE 15% THRESHOLD BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND BY MID
AFTERNOON THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE VALUES OF 5-10%.
DISCRIMINATOR FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE WIND SPEEDS.
MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO NORTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT, ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS TO 25-35
MPH. THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THAT FEATURE IN COLORADO, POSSIBLY TIED TO AN EVER SO SUBTLE
WIND MAX COMING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING MOSTLY CAPTURES WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY TO REACH THE 25 MPH CRITERIA FOR 3 HOURS, WITH THE SOLE
EXCEPTION OF SHERMAN AND WALLACE COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
WHICH WILL SEE THE WIND INCREASES TOWARD MID AFTERNOON AS
MENTIONED. SO PLAN ON ADDING THOSE TWO COUNTIES. GAVE SOME
THOUGHT TO GREELEY COUNTY AS WELL, BUT THE HIGHER WINDS DO NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY NOT REACH THE 3 HOUR
CRITERIA THERE BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER ABOUT 22Z.
A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TURN SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
(ROUGHLY WEST OF A WRAY, COLORADO, TO SCOTT CITY, KANSAS, LINE).
THIS IS THE SAME AREA THAT WILL SEE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SOMEWHAT LATER ONSET OF THE
STRONGER WINDS, MAINLY AFTER 20Z, MAY LIMIT ONLY THE WESTERN
AREAS TO 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY COLORADO,
THOUGH THE BORDER COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WILL BE VERY
CLOSE AS WELL. WITH MULTIPLE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN
EFFECT, WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON COMPLICATING MATTERS WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS FOR FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
SATURDAY, MOST OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DOESN'T NEAR THE AREA, SATURDAY SHOULD BE A MILD DAY
WITH THE AREA SLIGHTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IN THE UPPER
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS LONG AS TEMPERATURES DON'T GET
TOO HIGH, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER TEENS OR HIGHER. WINDS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW 25 MPH, BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME SPOTS CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE WEST THAT COULD
GUST TO 35 MPH. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA IN THE WRAP AROUND
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. CHANCES WILL INCREASE IF ONE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVES NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA. THE FAVORED
AREA WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. WHILE FORECAST PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE IN THE
COMING DAYS, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MUCAPE AROUND 1500-2000
J/KG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM, SUGGESTING SOME
INSTABILITY. THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR IS THE 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 45 KTS WHICH WOULD HELP SUPERCELLS DEVELOP. IF
THEY DID DEVELOP LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY, OUR REGION STARTS OFF UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S AND LOWS IN THE
30S TO 40S. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM 50-90%, WITH THE
NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) ON THE HIGHER SIDE. WE COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORMS AS CAPE FORECAST OVER THE REGION, BUT MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE CAPE WILL BE.
ECMWF SHOWS 400-1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY,
WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE SPORADIC CAPE OVER THE EASTERN CWA MAXING
OUT AROUND 300 J/KG. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT, BUT WE COULD SEE SMALL HAIL IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM.
BY MONDAY, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. THIS PLACES OUR REGION
IN A MORE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. AS THE LOW PROPAGATES EAST,
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING
AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. POPS RANGE FROM 20-40% FOR
THE NORTHWEST CWA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW BASED ON LACK OF
FORCINGS. WHETHER STORMS FORM OR NOT, WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN
MONDAY AS A JET STREAK SETS UP OVER OUR CWA. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE NORTHEAST
CWA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHER END OF WIND GUSTS.
OVERALL, TUESDAY'S FORECAST IS DRIER COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES AND POPS ARE TRENDING
DOWN WHILE WINDS HAVE SWITCHED DIRECTIONS AND GONE UP. RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST IN THE HIGH TEENS TO 20S AND WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO
35 MPH FOR THE WESTERN CWA. WE COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IF MODELS CONTINUE
TO TREND DRIER IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON, WE
COULD SEE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AROUND
THE WEST COAST MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND THIS BEING NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. CEILINGS, IF ANY, ARE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO HIGH-
BASED DIURNAL CUMULUS AT OR ABOVE ~12,000 FT AGL. BREEZY/20-30
KNOT NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 8-13
KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY, AT
THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013-027.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK/RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page