713
FXUS63 KGLD 231958
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
158 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO,
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND KANSAS COUNTIES BORDERING BOTH
COLORADO AND NEBRASKA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO AROUND
10% AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35 MPH.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND BORDERING
COUNTIES IN KANSAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
AN UPPER LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET WILL MEANDER AROUND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES AND VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. HOWEVER, EVEN IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS, VERY DRY LOW
AND MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS TO ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS, WHERE IT DOES OCCUR. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE UPDRAFTS AND MUCAPE OF 100
J/KG OR LESS, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THAT BEING SAID,
STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE GUST WITH
DCAPE FORECAST TO BE 500-1000 J/KG BOTH DAYS.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TODAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL REACH THE 15% THRESHOLD BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND BY MID
AFTERNOON THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE VALUES OF 5-10%.
DISCRIMINATOR FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE WIND SPEEDS.
MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO NORTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT, ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS TO 25-35
MPH. THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THAT FEATURE IN COLORADO, POSSIBLY TIED TO AN EVER SO SUBTLE
WIND MAX COMING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING MOSTLY CAPTURES WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY TO REACH THE 25 MPH CRITERIA FOR 3 HOURS, WITH THE SOLE
EXCEPTION OF SHERMAN AND WALLACE COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
WHICH WILL SEE THE WIND INCREASES TOWARD MID AFTERNOON AS
MENTIONED. SO PLAN ON ADDING THOSE TWO COUNTIES. GAVE SOME
THOUGHT TO GREELEY COUNTY AS WELL, BUT THE HIGHER WINDS DO NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY NOT REACH THE 3 HOUR
CRITERIA THERE BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER ABOUT 22Z.
A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TURN SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
(ROUGHLY WEST OF A WRAY, COLORADO, TO SCOTT CITY, KANSAS, LINE).
THIS IS THE SAME AREA THAT WILL SEE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SOMEWHAT LATER ONSET OF THE
STRONGER WINDS, MAINLY AFTER 20Z, MAY LIMIT ONLY THE WESTERN
AREAS TO 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY COLORADO,
THOUGH THE BORDER COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WILL BE VERY
CLOSE AS WELL. WITH MULTIPLE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN
EFFECT, WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON COMPLICATING MATTERS WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS FOR FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
SUNDAY, OUR REGION STARTS OFF UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO
40S. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON POPS
RANGING FROM 75-97% INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. POPS WILL START
TO DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN RANGING FROM 30-60% OVERNIGHT.
WE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS AS CAPE IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION, BUT
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE CAPE WILL BE.
ECMWF SHOWS 400-1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY,
WHILE THE GFS HAS NO CAPE OVER OUR CWA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS
DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT, BUT WE COULD SEE SMALL HAIL IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM.
BY MONDAY, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. THIS PLACES OUR REGION IN A MORE
ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. AS THE LOW PROPAGATES EAST, SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AFTERNOON CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. POPS RANGE FROM 25-50% FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW BASED WEAK FORCING AND OVERALL LIMITED
INSTABILITY. WHETHER STORMS FORM OR NOT, WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN
MONDAY AS A JET STREAK SETS UP OVER OUR CWA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE NORTHEAST CWA IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHER END OF WIND GUSTS.
TUESDAY'S FORECAST HAS CHANGED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. WINDS HAVE
BACKED DOWN OVERALL, WITH MAX WIND GUSTS FORECAST AROUND 25 MPH FOR
THE NORTHWEST CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES FOR THE NORTHWEST
CWA ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 20S. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
DECREASING BASED ON THIS LATEST RUN OF THE NBM, BUT STILL SOMETHING
TO MONITOR.
THE NORTHWEST CWA HAS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POPS AROUND 30% DUE TO SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH AND
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A JET STREAK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SPECIFIC HAZARDS AT THIS TIME, BUT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AROUND 100
J/KG OF CAPE IN EASTERN COLORADO, SO WE COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM.
WEDNESDAY ON, WE COULD SEE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AROUND THE WEST COAST MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA.
ENSEMBLES ARE CURRENTLY IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE LOW. WHERE THIS SETS UP WILL DETERMINE OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, BUT BASED ON INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WE WILL LIKELY
SEE INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION AND
POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. CEILINGS, IF ANY, ARE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO HIGH-
BASED DIURNAL CUMULUS AT OR ABOVE ~12,000 FT AGL. BREEZY/20-30
KNOT NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 8-13
KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY, AT
THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013-027.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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