950
FXUS63 KGLD 232255
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
455 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT / 8 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE BORDERING
KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM-OUT AROUND
15% AND NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND BORDERING
COUNTIES IN KANSAS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM-OUT
AROUND 10% AND SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS (VIRGA) HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD 60 MPH WIND
GUSTS AND SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH BLOWING DUST
THIS AFTERNOON, PROMPTING SEVERAL DUST STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ABATE
BY SUNSET AS HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/VIRGA PROGRESS EAST INTO CENTRAL
KS.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT KS BORDER
COUNTIES DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON, WHERE RH READINGS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 15%. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW (BREEZY 20-30 MPH S WINDS) MAY NOT FULLY BECOME
ESTABLISHED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN
DURATION. HIGH-BASED SHOWERS, PERHAPS A FEW DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES, ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS
THE HWY 283 CORRIDOR (GRAHAM/NORTON COUNTIES) BETWEEN ~7 AM AND
NOON MDT (~13-18Z), AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHWEST KS.
EVEN IF THIS IS THE CASE, ACTIVITY WOULD QUICKLY PROGRESS EAST
OF THE GOODLAND CWA, INTO CENTRAL KS. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS VIA BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM NEST SUGGEST A MESSY STORM
MODE / POOR ORGANIZATION AT ONSET. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND,
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE GOODLAND CWA APPEARS TO BE VERY
LIMITED IN SCOPE/MAGNITUDE, I.E. MARGINAL SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GOODLAND CWA DURING THE MID-LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
SUNDAY, OUR REGION STARTS OFF UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S AND LOWS IN THE
30S TO 40S. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON POPS RANGING FROM 75-97% INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. POPS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN RANGING FROM
30-60% OVERNIGHT.
WE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS AS CAPE IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION,
BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE CAPE
WILL BE. ECMWF SHOWS 400-1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
SUNDAY, WHILE THE GFS HAS NO CAPE OVER OUR CWA. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SPECIFICS DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT, BUT WE COULD SEE SMALL
HAIL IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM.
BY MONDAY, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. THIS PLACES OUR REGION
IN A MORE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. AS THE LOW PROPAGATES EAST,
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING
AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. POPS RANGE FROM 25-50% FOR
THE NORTHWEST CWA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW BASED WEAK
FORCING AND OVERALL LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHETHER STORMS FORM OR
NOT, WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN MONDAY AS A JET STREAK SETS UP OVER
OUR CWA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 25-40
MPH POSSIBLE. THE NORTHEAST CWA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE
HIGHER END OF WIND GUSTS.
TUESDAY'S FORECAST HAS CHANGED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. WINDS HAVE
BACKED DOWN OVERALL, WITH MAX WIND GUSTS FORECAST AROUND 25 MPH
FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES FOR THE
NORTHWEST CWA ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 20S. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE DECREASING BASED ON THIS LATEST RUN OF THE NBM, BUT STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE NORTHWEST CWA HAS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POPS AROUND 30% DUE TO SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A JET STREAK. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC HAZARDS AT THIS TIME, BUT THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE IN EASTERN COLORADO, SO WE COULD
SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM.
WEDNESDAY ON, WE COULD SEE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AROUND THE WEST COAST MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA.
ENSEMBLES ARE CURRENTLY IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW. WHERE THIS SETS UP WILL DETERMINE OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT BASED ON INCREASING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, WE WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. CEILINGS, IF ANY, ARE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO HIGH-
BASED DIURNAL CUMULUS AT OR ABOVE ~10,000 FT AGL. BREEZY/20-30
KNOT NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013-027.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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