562
FXUS63 KGLD 241744
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE HUMIDITY IN THE LOW TEENS AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO ~35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
- A FEW NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ~45 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE DURING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN EASTERN CO.
- CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SEVERE STORM IN FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, MAINLY IN NORTON, GRAHAM
AND GOVE COUNTIES.
- A GREATER PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SEE A CONDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, SHOULD SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND IS FORECAST TO
LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS
IN PLACE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES
COULD OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. FRIDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ACROSS COLORADO A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
YUMA, KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE (CO). THIS IS WHERE THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LIES.
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS OF 10,000-13,000 FEET AGL THERE SHOULD BE NO
ISSUE IN WINDS MIXING DOWN AND OVERLAPPING A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE 3 COUNTIES AS HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE FORECAST
TO OCCUR. AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR FROM DUNDY DOWN THROUGH WALLACE COUNTY AS THE LOW DEEPENS
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AFTER 21Z. I OPTED TO NOT
ISSUE FOR THESE COUNTIES DUE TO CONFIDENCE BEING AROUND 60% IN 3
OR MORE HOURS OCCURRING. IF THE LOW CAN SET UP A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST AND WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SOONER THEN A SHORT
LEAD TIME WARNING MAY BE NEEDED AS DRY AIR WOULD INTRUDE
QUICKER. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SOME WEAK 500MB VORTICITY
MAXIMA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVES. VIRGA IS POSSIBLE BUT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY
AIR NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. 00Z
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES INDICATING THAT SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN'T BE RULED
OUT.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH. WIND GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH
ARE MOST LIKELY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 1000 FEET AGL VIA
ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 MPH BUT THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE OF ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AS WELL. IF VIRGA IS
IN PLACE THEN THE CONCERN FOR 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS MIXING DOWN
WITH THE FRONT WITH INCREASE AS WELL. THIS WOULD ALSO RAISE THE
CONCERN FOR BLOWING DUST AND LOCALIZED DUST STORMS SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY; ALTHOUGH THE IMPACTS WOULD BE LESSER
DUE TO THE TIME OF THE DAY.
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY, BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG SIGNAL FOR
STRATUS IS SEEN FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
OMEGA WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENTLY
THE FAVORED AREA FOR LIGHT RAIN IS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A CHILLIER DAY IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
IF CLOUD COVER IS THICK ENOUGH THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES TO WARM. MOISTURE RETURN IS THEN FORECAST TO
OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES AS
WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF A SURFACE
LOW. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS SMALL AND CONDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
DECATUR TO GOVE COUNTY LINE AS SYNOPTIC FORCING INCREASES AHEAD
OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH. A LOT OF MESOSCALE FACTORS SUCH AS DRY
LINE LOCATION AND IF EARLIER DAY RAINFALL AND STRATUS POTENTIAL
CAN INTERFERE WITH THE ENVIRONMENT. SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE RANGING FROM 900-1600 J/KG DEPENDENT ON THE
QUALITY OF MOISTURE PRESENT, STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 35- 45 KNOTS WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS ARE ALSO SEEN AS WELL WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT SPLITTING OF CELLS. AM NOTICING A CAP AROUND 700MB
WHICH WOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND IF STORMS EVEN OCCUR AT ALL.
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FORMING IS AROUND 10% AND SEVERE WEATHER IS
LESS THAN 5% CURRENTLY. ECMWF DOES INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN
THE AREA WHICH WOULD SERVE AS LIFT BUT IS CURRENTLY THE OUTLIER
AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
SUNDAY, OUR REGION STARTS OFF UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S AND LOWS IN THE
30S TO 40S. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON POPS RANGING FROM 75-97% INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. POPS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN RANGING FROM
30-60% OVERNIGHT.
WE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS AS CAPE IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION,
BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE CAPE
WILL BE. ECMWF SHOWS 400-1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
SUNDAY, WHILE THE GFS HAS NO CAPE OVER OUR CWA. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SPECIFICS DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT, BUT WE COULD SEE SMALL
HAIL IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM.
BY MONDAY, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. THIS PLACES OUR REGION
IN A MORE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. AS THE LOW PROPAGATES EAST,
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING
AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. POPS RANGE FROM 25-50% FOR
THE NORTHWEST CWA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW BASED WEAK
FORCING AND OVERALL LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHETHER STORMS FORM OR
NOT, WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN MONDAY AS A JET STREAK SETS UP OVER
OUR CWA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 25-40
MPH POSSIBLE. THE NORTHEAST CWA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE
HIGHER END OF WIND GUSTS.
TUESDAY'S FORECAST HAS CHANGED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. WINDS HAVE
BACKED DOWN OVERALL, WITH MAX WIND GUSTS FORECAST AROUND 25 MPH
FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES FOR THE
NORTHWEST CWA ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 20S. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE DECREASING BASED ON THIS LATEST RUN OF THE NBM, BUT STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE NORTHWEST CWA HAS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POPS AROUND 30% DUE TO SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A JET STREAK. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC HAZARDS AT THIS TIME, BUT THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE IN EASTERN COLORADO, SO WE COULD
SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM.
WEDNESDAY ON, WE COULD SEE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AROUND THE WEST COAST MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA.
ENSEMBLES ARE CURRENTLY IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW. WHERE THIS SETS UP WILL DETERMINE OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT BASED ON INCREASING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, WE WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS (~1,000 FT AGL) ARE ANTICIPATED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND SUNRISE (~11-14Z SAT)
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. S WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS BY MID-AFTERNOON (~21Z) AND REMAIN
BREEZY WELL INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT (BEGINNING ~06Z) AS A SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH IN CO EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST KS. LIGHT/
VARIABLE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED, PERSISTING A FEW
HOURS AT MOST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE TO 15-25
KNOTS AN HOUR OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE (~11-14Z SAT) AND
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE MORNING.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS (~1,000 FT AGL) ARE ANTICIPATED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND SUNRISE (~11-13Z SAT)
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. ENE-E
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS BY MID-
AFTERNOON (~21Z) AND FURTHER STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO ~35 KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING (~03Z) AND BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE ~06Z AS A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN CO EXTENDS
EASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED, PERSISTING A FEW HOURS AT MOST.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N OR NE AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS AN
HOUR OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE (~11-14Z SAT) AND REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THE MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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