705
FXUS63 KGLD 250519
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ~45 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE DURING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN EASTERN CO.
- CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SEVERE STORM IN FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, MAINLY IN NORTON, GRAHAM
AND GOVE COUNTIES.
- A GREATER PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SEE A CONDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, SHOULD SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 802 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND HUMIDITY IS INCREASING,
THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
HAS ENDED. REMAIN AWARE THAT A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY: BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT (ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, NEAR-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
SASKATCHEWAN) WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER
SOUTH, OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, A UNIDIRECTIONAL /WESTERLY/ FLOW
ALOFT REGIME WILL PREVAIL. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, A BROAD LEE
CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CO AT 21Z WILL SLOWLY TRACK
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN KS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (BETWEEN CHADRON AND
ALLIANCE AT 21Z) WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST CO THIS EVENING AND EAST-CENTRAL CO TONIGHT. FURTHER
EAST, IN NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE, THE BROAD LEE CYCLONE
WILL BLOCK/DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL MID-LATE SAT MORNING
(~12-18Z). A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS (45-55 MPH
GUSTS) MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN EASTERN CO THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS (VIRGA) CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ON THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL PROGRESS E TOWARD YUMA/KIT
CARSON COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
DCAPE (~1300 J/KG), 50-60 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
AND DEEP INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.. ANY HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING -LOCALLY- STRONG
WINDS. IN STARK CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY (WHEN HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
WERE EXTENSIVE IN AREA/COVERAGE, 50X50 MI OR ~2500 SQUARE
MILES), A LARGE/CONSOLIDATED COLD POOL IS UNLIKELY. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY (~100-500 J/KG MUCAPE) AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS IN VICINITY OF THE LEE CYCLONE COULD
FACILITATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KS AND
SOUTHWEST NE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE (~12-15Z) SAT
MORNING, THOUGH.. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS VIA CURRENT
AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM NEST ARE LESS THAN
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GOODLAND CWA
SATURDAY MORNING -AND- AFTERNOON. WHILE A VERY LOW CONDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SEVERE STORM WILL EXIST IN FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MAINLY GRAHAM/NORTON) DURING THE
AFTERNOON, HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED
THAT DEEP CONVECTION, IF ANY, WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED EAST OF
THE GOODLAND CWA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL MOVE ASHORE THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST (SAT EVE-
NIGHT) AND PROGRESS E ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES (SUN)
AND CENTRAL PLAINS (SUN NIGHT). AN ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE WILL
DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST CO (SUN) AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS (SUN NIGHT). GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A COOLER AIRMASS /
INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST KS
WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
~09-18Z SUN MORNING.. AND THAT THE REINFORCED COOLER AIRMASS
WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE IN SOUTHEAST CO.. LENDING
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL/
DEVELOPMENT, COVERAGE, MODE AND EVOLUTION DURING THE DAY ON SUN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
STARTING OFF THE WORK WEEK, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP IN
EASTERN KANSAS AND THERE IS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. OUR REGION IS IN A MOSTLY SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES, SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE AROUND 30-40% FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOST
LIKELY, BUT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD INITIATE A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHETHER STORMS FORM OR NOT, WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN
MONDAY AS A JET STREAK SETS UP OVER OUR CWA. WINDS ARE FORECAST FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE I-
70 CORRIDOR.
TUESDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH
A JET STREAK OVERHEAD. THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM
YESTERDAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST AROUND 30 MPH FOR THE NORTHWEST
CWA AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (RH) ARE FORECAST IN THE 20S. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS DO NOT ALIGN WITH THE LOWEST RH VALUES, SO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL FOR TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-50% DUE TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND JET
SUPPORT ALOFT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC HAZARDS AT THIS TIME, BUT
SPORADIC, WEAK CAPE PRESENT IN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR EASTERN
COLORADO. IF A THUNDERSTORM IS ABLE TO FORM, HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY ON, WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
CWA REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH JET SUPPORT AND PASSING
SHORTWAVES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARDS EACH TERMINAL AND WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO THE NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT STRATUS WILL IMPACT EACH TERMINAL WITH IFR CEILINGS. MCK IS
FORECAST TO BE SOCKED IN IFR CONDITIONS FROM 14Z THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO IMPACT MCK AS WELL
SATURDAY MORNING BUT IS A BIT MORE CONDITIONAL FOR GLD. STRATUS
IS FORECAST TO RETURN AT GLD AS WELL SATURDAY EVENING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG/RHOADES
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...TRIGG
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