561
FXUS63 KGLD 252057
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
257 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE TRI-STATE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
KANSAS IS MOST AT-RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO THUNDERSTORM
LOCATION AND COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST WHICH IS DELAYING THE COLD
FRONT AND KEEPING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO A LITTLE LONGER. DUE TO THE DELAY IN THE
FRONT, THE CONCERN FOR STRONGER GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR HIGHER HAS
DECREASED DUE TO LESS OF A SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO TAKE ON AN INTERESTING SHAPE AS IT WILL SLOWLY
LEAK INTO THE AREA WITH EASTERN COLORADO BEING THE MOST FAVORED
FOR THE COOLEST CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR FREEZING AGAIN. RAINFALL POTENTIAL
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FAVORING EASTERN AND NORTHER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG
THE FRONT AND WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO POOL UP.
INTO SATURDAY RAIN OR A LEAST A LIGHT DRIZZLE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS
THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ESSENTIALLY TURNING INTO A DRY LINE. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS
OCCURS WILL DICTATE IF WE HAVE A SEVERE STORM THREAT OR NOT
ACROSS DECATUR, NORTON, SHERIDAN, GRAHAM AND GOVE COUNTIES. MOST
GUIDANCE HAS THE DRY LINE SETTING UP JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT THE 18Z RRFS DOES HAVE IT LYING BACK CLOSER TO IN
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 25 AND HIGHWAY 83. IF THE RRFS SCENARIO DOES PAN
OUT THEN SUPERCELLS AND SPLITTING CELLS WOULD OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS. WITH STRAIGHT LINE
HODOGRAPHS IN PLACE EVEN IF STORMS WOULD DEVELOP JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ANY RIGHT MOVING STORM WOULD FAVOR A
SW TRACK DUE TO BUNKERS STORM MOTION VECTORS BUT WOULD MOVE VERY
SLOWLY AROUND 10-15 MPH. SO THERE COULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE A
STORM COULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
OCCUR IS AROUND 20% AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, RAINFALL AND OR DRIZZLE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE
PUSHES TO THE WEST AND THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS TURNS WINDS
TO THE EAST PROVIDING AN UPSLOPE FLOW. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS
ABOUT DENSE FOG AS WELL DURING THIS TIME BUT IF THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL IS GREAT ENOUGH THAT MAY BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THE FOG.
DUE TO THIS WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF INTEREST. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND
MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ALTHOUGH THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE IS TILL A LITTLE IN
QUESTION. A STOUT SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SUBTLE
500MB DIFFLUENCE FAVORING EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FULLY OVERCOME SOME CAPPING SEEN IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE TWO AREAS
THAT HAVE MY ATTENTION. THE FIRST IS THE MORE CONDITIONAL BUT
POTENTIALLY MORE IMPACTFUL AREA ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THIS IS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST AND
WHERE A MORE VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO LIE AT. LARGE
TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WOULD ALL BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. ALSO CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
STRONG TORNADO IN THIS AREA WITH ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND STORMS
AT HIGHER RISK OF BEING SURFACE BASED. A 2ND AREA OF FOCUS IS
ACROSS THE WEST AND ESSENTIALLY THE REST OF THE AREA WHERE A
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING THE LIFT
NEEDED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS,
DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
AS WELL. THERE ARE A FEW FAILURE POINTS TO THIS EVENT WITH THE
AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS POTENTIALLY
STABILIZING THE ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF
MOISTURE QUALITY, IF MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LESSER SUCH AS DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THEN STORMS MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AREA. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FORMING
IS AROUND 60-70% WITH SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING AROUND 50-60% AT
THIS TIME. THE FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER STARTS AROUND
1PM SUNDAY WITH THE PEAK TIME FROM 3-7PM MT BEFORE THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT COMES TO AN END AROUND 9-10PM MT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TUESDAY MORNING, WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS IN
THIS FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
MEANDERING TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY SOME PRECIPITATION. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE
FORECAST REGION, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-70S.
ADDITIONALLY, NBM GUIDANCE FAVORS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
REGION TUESDAY, AND SUGGESTS UP TO A 65% CHANCE FOR OVER 0.1 INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE MID-60S TO
LOWER-70S, AND UP TO A 55% CHANCE FOR OVER 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ALL AREAS IN THE FORECAST REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE
LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG, BUT AT LEAST A
1 IN 3 CHANCE THAT CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AS SUCH, SHOWERS, AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER DAY.
GOING INTO THURSDAY, THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE
MOVED OFF INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH WEDNESDAY'S SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM STILL EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME
TIME, A SPLIT FLOW LOOKS TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES, PRODUCING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
THESE TWO SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MAY SLIGHTLY MERGE TOGETHER, ALLOWING
TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOL, WET
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER-50S TO LOWER-60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND A 50% CHANCE OR
GREATER OF RAINFALL OVER 0.1 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ACCORDING TO NBM GUIDANCE. ONCE AGAIN, LREF GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST CAPE WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS, BUT LIKELY LESS THAN
ABOUT 300 J/KG. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY MAY ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO WARM UP A LITTLE BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S.
PRECIPITATION MAY STILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME, THOUGH CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR LOWER AT LESS THAN 20%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO IFR THIS EVENING
(AFTER SUNSET) AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
N TO NNE WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS W/GUSTS TO ~25 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
THE NE AND DECREASE TO 12-17 KNOTS THIS EVENING, FURTHER
DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE E AND SE DURING THE LATE MORNING, REMAINING LIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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