787
FXUS63 KGLD 252258
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
458 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE TRI-STATE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
KANSAS IS MOST AT-RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO THUNDERSTORM
LOCATION AND COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ASHORE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT WILL PROGRESS E ACROSS THE
4-CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES (SUN) AND CENTRAL PLAINS (SUN NIGHT).
AN ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST CO ON SUNDAY
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS THEN NE ACROSS CENTRAL-
NORTHEAST KANSAS SUN EVE/NIGHT.. ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A COOL, SHALLOW AIRMASS /INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE/
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST KS. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
COOL, SHALLOW AIRMASS.. THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT MODIFIES AND
RECEDES NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.. WILL BE CENTRAL TO
VIRTUALLY ALL IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST, AS IT WILL BE
A KEY FACTOR DETERMINING THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE LEE CYCLONE..
AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR.. SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH-
RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ATOP THE COOL, SHALLOW AIRMASS
IN PLACE OVER NORTHWEST KS BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOON (~12-18Z),
ALBEIT TO VARYING DEGREES (COVERAGE VARIES FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL
AND RUN- TO-RUN). ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL TEND TO REINFORCE THE
COOL, SHALLOW AIRMASS.. DELAYING IT'S MODIFICATION AND NORTHWARD
RECESSION. 18Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM NEST SUGGEST TWO
POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONCERN FROM A SEVERE CONVECTION STANDPOINT:
(1) NORTHEAST CO, WHERE THE COOLER AIRMASS IS FAR SHALLOWER
/LIKELY TO MIX-OUT/ AND A NARROW PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR MAY
EXTEND NORTHWARD ALONG THE HWY 385 CORRIDOR AND (2) LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND, ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE COOLER
AIRMASS, WHERE A PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY RESIDE
FOR A PERIOD DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH AREAS COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE ISOLATED/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL HAZARDS, THOUGH.. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST-TO-EAST SUN
EVENING/NIGHT.. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD MISSOURI.
MON-MON NIGHT: EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE 4-CORNERS AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE THE REGION LATE MON
EVE/NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TUESDAY MORNING, WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS IN
THIS FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
MEANDERING TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY SOME PRECIPITATION. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE
FORECAST REGION, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-70S.
ADDITIONALLY, NBM GUIDANCE FAVORS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
REGION TUESDAY, AND SUGGESTS UP TO A 65% CHANCE FOR OVER 0.1 INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE MID-60S TO
LOWER-70S, AND UP TO A 55% CHANCE FOR OVER 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ALL AREAS IN THE FORECAST REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE
LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG, BUT AT LEAST A
1 IN 3 CHANCE THAT CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AS SUCH, SHOWERS, AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER DAY.
GOING INTO THURSDAY, THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE
MOVED OFF INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH WEDNESDAY'S SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM STILL EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME
TIME, A SPLIT FLOW LOOKS TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES, PRODUCING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
THESE TWO SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MAY SLIGHTLY MERGE TOGETHER, ALLOWING
TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOL, WET
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER-50S TO LOWER-60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND A 50% CHANCE OR
GREATER OF RAINFALL OVER 0.1 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ACCORDING TO NBM GUIDANCE. ONCE AGAIN, LREF GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST CAPE WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS, BUT LIKELY LESS THAN
ABOUT 300 J/KG. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY MAY ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO WARM UP A LITTLE BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S.
PRECIPITATION MAY STILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME, THOUGH CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR LOWER AT LESS THAN 20%.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO IFR THIS EVENING
(AFTER SUNSET) AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
N TO NNE WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS W/GUSTS TO ~25 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
THE NE AND DECREASE TO 12-17 KNOTS THIS EVENING, FURTHER
DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE E AND SE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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