930
FXUS63 KGLD 261655
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST CO AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST KS ~2-4 PM MDT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, SOME SEVERE, ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT MDT.
- THE RELATIVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTH OF OAKLEY, KS
WHERE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 BY EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOVE
NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 18-19Z. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WILL FOLLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE AREA AS AN OPEN WAVE. IT WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z IN AREAS THAT MANAGE TO SEE
SOME CLEARING AFTER THE MORNING PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WHEN AND WHERE THAT CLEARING WILL OCCUR,
BUT MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THAT BY 21Z AREAS WEST OF A WRAY,
COLORADO, TO SCOTT CITY, KANSAS, LINE WILL BE FREE OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING (500-1000 J/KG). AS THE LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RETREAT EASTWARD, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, BY 00-03Z. PEAK INSTABILITY OCCURS DURING THAT
TIME RANGE AT 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX, FROM 40-50 KTS AT 21Z TO
50-60 KTS AFTER 00Z. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE, THE MAGNITUDE TO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD MORE
THAN COMPENSATE, AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT. MODELS SHOW DISCRETE CELLS AND UPDRAFT
HELICITY MAXIMA PRIMARILY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL AREA IN
YUMA COUNTY WHERE CONVERGENCE NEAR A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MAY
ALSO PLAY A ROLE. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS (AND PERHAPS
BLOWING DUST IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE MORNING
PRECIPITATION), AND A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELL,
THOUGH THE STP (SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER) IS LESS THAN 1,
SUGGESTING RELATIVELY WEAK TORNADOES. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS
WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS. IF THEY PERSIST LONGER OR FURTHER WEST,
INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
COLORADO AND AREAS FURTHER SOUTH IN KANSAS WHERE CLEARING SEEMS
MORE CERTAIN. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT, BUT A COLD WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY 12Z
WHICH IS NOT A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR FOG.
MONDAY THE AREA WILL BE POST FRONTAL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS,
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. THE DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE SWEPT WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO NO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REESTABLISHED OVER THE
PLAINS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAINLY TO COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH THOSE CHANCES
TRYING TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE,
WITH NBM AND REFS MEANS SHOWING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH,
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST (60S) BUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
THE WEST (70S) DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR, THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY (60S). LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, THEN LOW 30S MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, WHEN A FROST OR FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUESDAY MORNING, WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORED TO LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MEANDERING TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY SOME
PRECIPITATION. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE FORECAST REGION, WITH HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-70S. ADDITIONALLY, NBM
GUIDANCE FAVORS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION TUESDAY,
AND SUGGESTS UP TO A 65% CHANCE FOR OVER 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE
MID-60S TO LOWER-70S, AND UP TO A 55% CHANCE FOR OVER 0.1
INCHES OF RAIN IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ALL AREAS IN THE FORECAST REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF CAPE
GREATER THAN 500 J/KG, BUT AT LEAST A 1 IN 3 CHANCE THAT CAPE
WILL BE PRESENT. AS SUCH, SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER DAY.
GOING INTO THURSDAY, THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE
MOVED OFF INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH WEDNESDAY'S
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM STILL EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
AT THE SAME TIME, A SPLIT FLOW LOOKS TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES, PRODUCING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THESE TWO SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MAY SLIGHTLY
MERGE TOGETHER, ALLOWING TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVERHEAD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. COOL, WET CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH THIS
PATTERN, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-60S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, AND A 50% CHANCE OR GREATER OF RAINFALL OVER 0.1 INCHES
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACCORDING TO NBM GUIDANCE. ONCE
AGAIN, LREF GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST CAPE WILL BE PRESENT BOTH
DAYS, BUT LIKELY LESS THAN ABOUT 300 J/KG. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY MAY
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO WARM UP A LITTLE BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-60S TO
LOWER-70S. PRECIPITATION MAY STILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR LOWER AT LESS
THAN 20%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
GLD: ONGOING IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT-LIVED, AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL
RAPIDLY RETURN AFTER SUNSET AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE-ESE AND
MODESTLY INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE.
BREEZY, 15-25 KNOT NNW WINDS WILL FOLLOW, AFTER SUNRISE, AND
PERSIST INTO MON AFTERNOON.
MCK: ONGOING IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SHORT WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, DETERIORATION TO LIFR IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
AFTER SUNSET. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR-MVFR MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE
MONDAY MORNING, NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME ESE OR E AND MODESTLY INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE. BREEZY, 15-25 KNOT NW
WINDS WILL FOLLOW, AFTER SUNRISE, AND PERSIST INTO MON
AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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