402
FXUS63 KGLD 261911
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST CO AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST KS ~2-4 PM MDT AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, SOME SEVERE, ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT MDT.
- THE RELATIVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTH OF OAKLEY, KS
WHERE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 BY EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOVE
NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 18-19Z. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WILL FOLLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE AREA AS AN OPEN WAVE. IT WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z IN AREAS THAT MANAGE TO SEE
SOME CLEARING AFTER THE MORNING PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WHEN AND WHERE THAT CLEARING WILL OCCUR,
BUT MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THAT BY 21Z AREAS WEST OF A WRAY,
COLORADO, TO SCOTT CITY, KANSAS, LINE WILL BE FREE OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING (500-1000 J/KG). AS THE LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RETREAT EASTWARD, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, BY 00-03Z. PEAK INSTABILITY OCCURS DURING THAT
TIME RANGE AT 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX, FROM 40-50 KTS AT 21Z TO
50-60 KTS AFTER 00Z. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE, THE MAGNITUDE TO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD MORE
THAN COMPENSATE, AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT. MODELS SHOW DISCRETE CELLS AND UPDRAFT
HELICITY MAXIMA PRIMARILY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL AREA IN
YUMA COUNTY WHERE CONVERGENCE NEAR A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MAY
ALSO PLAY A ROLE. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS (AND PERHAPS
BLOWING DUST IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE MORNING
PRECIPITATION), AND A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELL,
THOUGH THE STP (SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER) IS LESS THAN 1,
SUGGESTING RELATIVELY WEAK TORNADOES. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS
WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS. IF THEY PERSIST LONGER OR FURTHER WEST,
INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
COLORADO AND AREAS FURTHER SOUTH IN KANSAS WHERE CLEARING SEEMS
MORE CERTAIN. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT, BUT A COLD WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY 12Z
WHICH IS NOT A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR FOG.
MONDAY THE AREA WILL BE POST FRONTAL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS,
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. THE DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE SWEPT WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO NO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REESTABLISHED OVER THE
PLAINS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAINLY TO COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH THOSE CHANCES
TRYING TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE,
WITH NBM AND REFS MEANS SHOWING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH,
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST (60S) BUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
THE WEST (70S) DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR, THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY (60S). LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, THEN LOW 30S MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, WHEN A FROST OR FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
***SYNOPSIS***
TROUGHING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGHING WILL TO MOVE IN OVERHEAD THURSDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY LAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA, AND REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO BECOME A BIT MORE DIVERGENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN SATURDAY, SPECIFICALLY REGARDING WHEN THE TROUGHING
OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OUT AND BE REPLACED BY RIDGING ABOVE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD RIDGING REPLACING THE TROUGH
SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON, AND LASTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
***WEDNESDAY***
WITH TROUGHING FAVORED TO THE WEST OF THE CWA, CONDITIONS MAY WARM
SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY, WITH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER-60S. IN ADDITION, WITH THE INCOMING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE,
THERE MAY BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES
IN COLORADO, WITH AROUND A 40-45% CHANCE OF RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.1
INCHES OF RAIN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE FROM SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS, AS LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS OVER A 90% CHANCE FOR CAPE
(INSTABILITY) TO BE PRESENT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 75% CHANCE THAT
THIS CAPE IS LESS THAN 200 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LREF 500-MB
WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE, STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
BECOMING SEVERE. HOWEVER, THE LOWER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WOULD
INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED TO SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS.
***THURSDAY/FRIDAY***
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO COOL A LITTLE BIT THURSDAY AS TROUGHING
MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER-50S TO
MID-60S THURSDAY. A MINOR RETURN FLOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FRIDAY THAT SLIGHTLY
INCREASES TEMPERATURES, THOUGH FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED
IN THE UPPER-50S TO UPPER-60S. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
BOTH DAYS, WITH UP TO A 50% CHANCE THAT OVER 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPERIENCED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY. THURSDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE PROBABLE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH AT LEAST A 2 OUT OF 3 CHANCE FOR CAPE TO BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT A 90% CHANCE OR BETTER THAT IT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 200 J/KG. WITH 500-MB WINDS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 35 KTS,
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. THESE PARAMETERS
ARE EVEN LOWER ON FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD INDICATE LIGHT RAIN AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED WEAKER SHOWERS.
***SATURDAY/SUNDAY***
AGAIN, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE REGARDING THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
SATURDAY, THOUGH RIDGING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED. THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID-60S TO LOWER-
70S, AND LOWER TO UPPER-70S RESPECTIVELY. PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE
TO HANG AROUND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
SATURDAY, THOUGH BECOMES MUCH LESS LIKELY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY IS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS, AND IS AS HIGH AS A 50% CHANCE
ACCORDING TO THE LREF. HOWEVER, THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT
RAIN, AS THE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 25% CHANCE OR LESS
FOR OVER 0.1 INCHES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY, WITH RIDGING FULLY FAVORED OVERHEAD ACCORDING TO 500-MB MEAN
HEIGHT GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
GLD: ONGOING IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT-LIVED, AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL
RAPIDLY RETURN AFTER SUNSET AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE-ESE AND
MODESTLY INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE.
BREEZY, 15-25 KNOT NNW WINDS WILL FOLLOW, AFTER SUNRISE, AND
PERSIST INTO MON AFTERNOON.
MCK: ONGOING IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SHORT WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, DETERIORATION TO LIFR IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
AFTER SUNSET. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR-MVFR MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE
MONDAY MORNING, NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME ESE OR E AND MODESTLY INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE. BREEZY, 15-25 KNOT NW
WINDS WILL FOLLOW, AFTER SUNRISE, AND PERSIST INTO MON
AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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