626
FXUS63 KGLD 262146
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
346 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT MDT.
- AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL, LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST CO UNTIL ~7 PM MDT.
- AN ELEVATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER TO GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST KS THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS AT 19
UTC WILL TRACK ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES (THIS EVENING)
AND ADJOINING HIGH PLAINS (TONIGHT). AN ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CO-NM-OK BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ALONG/NEAR THE KS-OK BORDER TOWARD LIBERAL, KS THIS
EVENING THEN ENE-NE ACROSS CENTRAL-NORTHEAST KS TONIGHT.. ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A COOL, SHALLOW AIRMASS
/INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE/ EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST KS. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS COOL, SHALLOW AIRMASS (AND
EXTENT TO WHICH IT MODIFIES AND RECEDES NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON) REMAINS CENTRAL TO VIRTUALLY ALL IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF
THE FORECAST, AS IT WILL BE A KEY FACTOR DETERMINING THE
PRECISE TRACK OF THE LEE CYCLONE.. AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WARM SECTOR. ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING EFFECTIVELY
REINFORCED THE COOL, SHALLOW AIRMASS.. RESULTING IN A
CONSIDERABLE (300+ J/KG) POOL OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER
WESTERN KS.. A POOL UNLIKELY TO BE DISLODGED BY A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE, WHICH WILL NOW VERY LIKELY ASSUME
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK (I.E. THE COOL, NEAR HOMOGENOUS AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN KS WILL CONFINE/HOLD THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER
SOUTH). SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS VIA CURRENT AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM NEST CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANY
APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
CONFINED TO NORTHEAST CO, WHERE THE COOLER AIRMASS IS FAR
SHALLOWER /LIKELY TO MIX-OUT/ AND A NARROW PORTION OF THE WARM
SECTOR WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS YUMA COUNTY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD (~22-01 UTC).. UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NE AND
N. DURING THIS BRIEF PERIOD, INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL
(~100-500 J/KG MLCAPE), AT BEST.. MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT UPDRAFTS
MAY STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE (LET ALONE UTILIZE) 60-70 KT OF
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND, EXPECT A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY SURFACE BASED
UPDRAFTS IN NORTHEAST CO BETWEEN ~22-01 UTC. A SHORT 'WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY' FOR ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST OVER NORTHWEST
KS LATER THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS ON THE E-ENE PERIPHERY OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING 850 MB LOW.
MON-TUE NIGHT: EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
EPISODIC CLOUD COVER / SHOWER CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
PROGRESSIVE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES AND/OR CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A STRENGTHENING W-WSW UPPER
LEVEL JET OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, 4-CORNERS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
***SYNOPSIS***
TROUGHING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGHING WILL TO MOVE IN OVERHEAD THURSDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY LAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA, AND REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO BECOME A BIT MORE DIVERGENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN SATURDAY, SPECIFICALLY REGARDING WHEN THE TROUGHING
OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OUT AND BE REPLACED BY RIDGING ABOVE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD RIDGING REPLACING THE TROUGH
SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON, AND LASTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
***WEDNESDAY***
WITH TROUGHING FAVORED TO THE WEST OF THE CWA, CONDITIONS MAY WARM
SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY, WITH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER-60S. IN ADDITION, WITH THE INCOMING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE,
THERE MAY BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES
IN COLORADO, WITH AROUND A 40-45% CHANCE OF RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.1
INCHES OF RAIN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE FROM SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS, AS LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS OVER A 90% CHANCE FOR CAPE
(INSTABILITY) TO BE PRESENT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 75% CHANCE THAT
THIS CAPE IS LESS THAN 200 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LREF 500-MB
WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE, STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
BECOMING SEVERE. HOWEVER, THE LOWER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WOULD
INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED TO SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS.
***THURSDAY/FRIDAY***
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO COOL A LITTLE BIT THURSDAY AS TROUGHING
MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER-50S TO
MID-60S THURSDAY. A MINOR RETURN FLOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FRIDAY THAT SLIGHTLY
INCREASES TEMPERATURES, THOUGH FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED
IN THE UPPER-50S TO UPPER-60S. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
BOTH DAYS, WITH UP TO A 50% CHANCE THAT OVER 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPERIENCED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY. THURSDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE PROBABLE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH AT LEAST A 2 OUT OF 3 CHANCE FOR CAPE TO BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT A 90% CHANCE OR BETTER THAT IT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 200 J/KG. WITH 500-MB WINDS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 35 KTS,
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. THESE PARAMETERS
ARE EVEN LOWER ON FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD INDICATE LIGHT RAIN AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED WEAKER SHOWERS.
***SATURDAY/SUNDAY***
AGAIN, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE REGARDING THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
SATURDAY, THOUGH RIDGING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED. THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID-60S TO LOWER-
70S, AND LOWER TO UPPER-70S RESPECTIVELY. PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE
TO HANG AROUND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
SATURDAY, THOUGH BECOMES MUCH LESS LIKELY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY IS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS, AND IS AS HIGH AS A 50% CHANCE
ACCORDING TO THE LREF. HOWEVER, THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT
RAIN, AS THE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 25% CHANCE OR LESS
FOR OVER 0.1 INCHES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY, WITH RIDGING FULLY FAVORED OVERHEAD ACCORDING TO 500-MB MEAN
HEIGHT GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
GLD: ONGOING IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO MVFR DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT-LIVED, AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL
RAPIDLY RETURN AFTER SUNSET AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE-ESE AND
MODESTLY INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE.
BREEZY, 15-25 KNOT NNW WINDS WILL FOLLOW, AFTER SUNRISE, AND
PERSIST INTO MON AFTERNOON.
MCK: ONGOING IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SHORT WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, DETERIORATION TO LIFR IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
AFTER SUNSET. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR-MVFR MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE
MONDAY MORNING, NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME ESE OR E AND MODESTLY INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE. BREEZY, 15-25 KNOT NW
WINDS WILL FOLLOW, AFTER SUNRISE, AND PERSIST INTO MON
AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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