816
FXUS63 KGLD 270519
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN SHERIDAN, GOVE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS AT 19
UTC WILL TRACK ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES (THIS EVENING)
AND ADJOINING HIGH PLAINS (TONIGHT). AN ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CO-NM-OK BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ALONG/NEAR THE KS-OK BORDER TOWARD LIBERAL, KS THIS
EVENING THEN ENE-NE ACROSS CENTRAL-NORTHEAST KS TONIGHT.. ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A COOL, SHALLOW AIRMASS
/INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE/ EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST KS. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS COOL, SHALLOW AIRMASS (AND
EXTENT TO WHICH IT MODIFIES AND RECEDES NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON) REMAINS CENTRAL TO VIRTUALLY ALL IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF
THE FORECAST, AS IT WILL BE A KEY FACTOR DETERMINING THE
PRECISE TRACK OF THE LEE CYCLONE.. AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WARM SECTOR. ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING EFFECTIVELY
REINFORCED THE COOL, SHALLOW AIRMASS.. RESULTING IN A
CONSIDERABLE (300+ J/KG) POOL OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER
WESTERN KS.. A POOL UNLIKELY TO BE DISLODGED BY A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE, WHICH WILL NOW VERY LIKELY ASSUME
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK (I.E. THE COOL, NEAR HOMOGENOUS AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN KS WILL CONFINE/HOLD THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER
SOUTH). SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS VIA CURRENT AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM NEST CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANY
APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
CONFINED TO NORTHEAST CO, WHERE THE COOLER AIRMASS IS FAR
SHALLOWER /LIKELY TO MIX-OUT/ AND A NARROW PORTION OF THE WARM
SECTOR WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS YUMA COUNTY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD (~22-01 UTC).. UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NE AND
N. DURING THIS BRIEF PERIOD, INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL
(~100-500 J/KG MLCAPE), AT BEST.. MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT UPDRAFTS
MAY STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE (LET ALONE UTILIZE) 60-70 KT OF
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND, EXPECT A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY SURFACE BASED
UPDRAFTS IN NORTHEAST CO BETWEEN ~22-01 UTC. A SHORT 'WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY' FOR ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST OVER NORTHWEST
KS LATER THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS ON THE E-ENE PERIPHERY OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING 850 MB LOW.
MON-TUE NIGHT: EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
EPISODIC CLOUD COVER / SHOWER CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
PROGRESSIVE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES AND/OR CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A STRENGTHENING W-WSW UPPER
LEVEL JET OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, 4-CORNERS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
***SYNOPSIS***
TROUGHING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGHING WILL TO MOVE IN
OVERHEAD THURSDAY, AND POTENTIALLY LAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA, AND REMAINING TO THE NORTH
OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO BECOME A BIT MORE DIVERGENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SATURDAY,
SPECIFICALLY REGARDING WHEN THE TROUGHING OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OUT
AND BE REPLACED BY RIDGING ABOVE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS LEANING
TOWARD RIDGING REPLACING THE TROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON, AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
***WEDNESDAY***
WITH TROUGHING FAVORED TO THE WEST OF THE CWA, CONDITIONS MAY
WARM SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY, WITH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER-60S. IN ADDITION, WITH THE INCOMING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE, THERE MAY BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY, THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF YUMA AND
KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO, WITH AROUND A 40-45% CHANCE OF
RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BE FROM SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS, AS LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS
OVER A 90% CHANCE FOR CAPE (INSTABILITY) TO BE PRESENT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A 75% CHANCE THAT THIS CAPE IS LESS THAN 200
J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LREF 500-MB WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT
RANGE, STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE.
HOWEVER, THE LOWER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WOULD INDICATE THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS.
***THURSDAY/FRIDAY***
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO COOL A LITTLE BIT THURSDAY AS
TROUGHING MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
IN THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S THURSDAY. A MINOR RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA FRIDAY THAT SLIGHTLY INCREASES TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER-50S TO
UPPER-60S. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BOTH DAYS, WITH
UP TO A 50% CHANCE THAT OVER 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPERIENCED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.
THURSDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE PROBABLE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS, WITH AT LEAST A 2 OUT OF 3 CHANCE FOR CAPE TO BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT A 90% CHANCE OR BETTER THAT IT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 200 J/KG. WITH 500-MB WINDS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 35 KTS,
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. THESE
PARAMETERS ARE EVEN LOWER ON FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD INDICATE LIGHT
RAIN AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED WEAKER SHOWERS.
***SATURDAY/SUNDAY***
AGAIN, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE REGARDING THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN SATURDAY, THOUGH RIDGING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
MID-60S TO LOWER- 70S, AND LOWER TO UPPER-70S RESPECTIVELY.
PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY, THOUGH BECOMES MUCH
LESS LIKELY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR
ON SATURDAY IS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS, AND IS AS HIGH AS A 50% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE LREF.
HOWEVER, THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT RAIN, AS THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 25% CHANCE OR LESS FOR OVER
0.1 INCHES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY, WITH RIDGING FULLY FAVORED OVERHEAD ACCORDING TO 500-MB
MEAN HEIGHT GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK, RESULTING IN MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL VLIFR. AFTER 12Z, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THE FOG, THOUGH THE LOW CEILINGS
MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-21Z BEFORE FINALLY RETURNING TO VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...024
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