711
FXUS63 KGLD 271728
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1128 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO AT LEAST EASTERN COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
ISOLATED STORMS WILL PERSIST IN SHERIDAN, GOVE AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS A FEW HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES EAST. OTHERWISE, THE AREA REMAINS SATURATED AT THE SURFACE
AND WILL SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
AFTER 09Z, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THE FOG, THOUGH THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ERODE AND MAY PERSIST UNTIL THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS IN
COLORADO VEER TO NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE 22-00Z. ONE OF THOSE MAY DRIFT INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF KIT CARSON COUNTY DURING THAT TIME. MUCAPE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED, LESS THAN 500 J/KG, SO DESPITE THE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS. AN EMBEDDED WEAK WAVE IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY EVENING AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE LOCATIONS, BUT THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH A WEAKENING WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS IN A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE,
WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWS IN THE 30S. MAY
SEE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
***SYNOPSIS***
TROUGHING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGHING WILL TO MOVE IN
OVERHEAD THURSDAY, AND POTENTIALLY LAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA, AND REMAINING TO THE NORTH
OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO BECOME A BIT MORE DIVERGENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SATURDAY,
SPECIFICALLY REGARDING WHEN THE TROUGHING OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OUT
AND BE REPLACED BY RIDGING ABOVE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS LEANING
TOWARD RIDGING REPLACING THE TROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON, AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
***WEDNESDAY***
WITH TROUGHING FAVORED TO THE WEST OF THE CWA, CONDITIONS MAY
WARM SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY, WITH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER-60S. IN ADDITION, WITH THE INCOMING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE, THERE MAY BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY, THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF YUMA AND
KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO, WITH AROUND A 40-45% CHANCE OF
RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BE FROM SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS, AS LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS
OVER A 90% CHANCE FOR CAPE (INSTABILITY) TO BE PRESENT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A 75% CHANCE THAT THIS CAPE IS LESS THAN 200
J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LREF 500-MB WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT
RANGE, STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE.
HOWEVER, THE LOWER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WOULD INDICATE THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS.
***THURSDAY/FRIDAY***
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO COOL A LITTLE BIT THURSDAY AS
TROUGHING MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
IN THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S THURSDAY. A MINOR RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA FRIDAY THAT SLIGHTLY INCREASES TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER-50S TO
UPPER-60S. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BOTH DAYS, WITH
UP TO A 50% CHANCE THAT OVER 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPERIENCED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.
THURSDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE PROBABLE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS, WITH AT LEAST A 2 OUT OF 3 CHANCE FOR CAPE TO BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT A 90% CHANCE OR BETTER THAT IT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 200 J/KG. WITH 500-MB WINDS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 35 KTS,
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. THESE
PARAMETERS ARE EVEN LOWER ON FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD INDICATE LIGHT
RAIN AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED WEAKER SHOWERS.
***SATURDAY/SUNDAY***
AGAIN, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE REGARDING THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN SATURDAY, THOUGH RIDGING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
MID-60S TO LOWER- 70S, AND LOWER TO UPPER-70S RESPECTIVELY.
PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY, THOUGH BECOMES MUCH
LESS LIKELY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR
ON SATURDAY IS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS, AND IS AS HIGH AS A 50% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE LREF.
HOWEVER, THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT RAIN, AS THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 25% CHANCE OR LESS FOR OVER
0.1 INCHES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY, WITH RIDGING FULLY FAVORED OVERHEAD ACCORDING TO 500-MB
MEAN HEIGHT GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
STRATUS IS SLOWLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR OR NEAR MVFR
CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THIS TAF
PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR GLD. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING FOR GLD AROUND 02Z. DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS
ON THE COVERAGE OF IT DUE TO THE LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF MCK FOR NOW DUE TO
THE STRATUS LOWERING CONFIDENCE SOME AS WELL AND HAVE SOME
CONCERNS IF MCK WILL EVEN BE AFFECTED. STRATUS IS AGAIN FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF LIFR AS WELL FOR EACH
TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...TRIGG
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