816
FXUS63 KGLD 271915
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO AT LEAST EASTERN COLORADO.
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SOME SNOW MIXING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AND A LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF A SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION.
- FOG PERHAPS DENSE, AND FROST IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POTENTIAL CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. FAVORED TIMEFRAME IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
MID LEVEL TROUGHING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE
TROUGHING ONGOING. THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THIS AFTERNOON A 500MB SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE
FRONT RANGE LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING OFF OF THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING TOWARDS YUMA, KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE (CO) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAP
FORECAST SOUNDS INDICATE UP TO 500 J/KG OF ML AND MUCAPE AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8.0 C/KM AND WIND SHEAR OF 35-45
KNOTS. FAIRLY SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO YESTERDAY OTHER THAN THE
WEAKER CAPE BUT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE IS POSSIBLE IF A STRONG ENOUGH OF AN UPDRAFT CAN
OCCUR. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LANDSPOUT EITHER WITH
DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS AS RAP INDICATES A POTENTIAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS WESTERN KIT CARSON AND MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN
CHEYENNE (CO) BUT THINK THIS THREAT IS VERY SMALL AS I WOULD
LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES. A BIG CAVEAT TO ANY
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THE CURRENT STRATUS
LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, IF IT REMAINS THEN THE
INSTABILITY WOULD BE EVEN MORE MINIMAL. RAIN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING MAINLY FAVORING THOSE ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 BUT OVERALL NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING
ANY IMPACTS OVERNIGHT.
A CAVEAT TO THIS HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RATE DRIVEN
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALONG A VERY NARROW 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND
AFTER 3AM MOUNTAIN TIME. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO CURRENTLY
BUT ALL OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS YUMA, AND WESTERN DUNDY AND CHEYENNE
(KS). THIS MAY BE A TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT SCENARIO AS WELL
ESPECIALLY IF TEMPERATURES CAN REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER TO HELP
KEEP THE WET BULBING TEMPERATURE A LITTLE WARMER. IF EVERYTHING
CAN COME TOGETHER RIGHT I CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS CAN COME TOGETHER. THE 00Z EFI IS ALSO SHOWING A
SMALL CORRIDOR OF A SHIFT OF TAILS ACROSS EASTERN YUMA COUNTY
WHICH DOES RAISE MY CONCERN A BIT WHICH IS IN THE AREA WHERE 12Z
NAM SHOWS SOME CAPE IN THE 850-800MB LAYER. CONFIDENCE OF A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IS LESS THAN 5% BUT AROUND 20% THAT SOME
OF THE RAIN COULD TRANSITION OVER AS MOST GUIDANCE'S WET BULB
ZERO SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL.
FURTHER SOUTH WE WILL AGAIN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG AND DRIZZLE
FORMATION AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND LOW
LEVELS SATURATE AND WEAK OMEGA DEVELOPS AROUND 850MB. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT QUITE THERE TO PUT FOG INTO THE FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. DESPITE CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES
BEING BELOW 36 DEGREES AM OPTING TO NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH ACTUALLY MAY HELP ISOLATE THE SURFACE
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN WARMER THAN FORECAST.
RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. DUE FOR THE CONCERNS OF THICK
CLOUDS HAVE BROUGHT DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES. I DIDN'T COMPLETELY
TANK THEM AS THEY COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT IF THESE BREAKS DO NOT OCCUR THEN TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE EVEN COOLER AND STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR
HIGHS. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CURRENTLY SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE
TO CAPE AROUND 50-100 J/KG. THE ONE CAVEAT THOUGH IS IF OUTFLOW
CAN EMANATE FROM THIS CONVECTION AND MAKE IT'S OWN MESOSCALE
PRESSURE RISES. IF THIS IS THE CASE, THEN SEVERE WINDS AROUND 60
MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG FLOW AROUND 700MB. THIS
WOULD ALSO RAISE THE CONCERN OF A HABOOB AS NASASPORT CURRENTLY
SHOWS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA STILL ONLY HAVE LESS THAN 2%
0-10CM SOIL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A BIG CAVEAT TO THIS POTENTIAL
HOWEVER IS IF WE STAY SOCKED IN CLOUDS ALL DAY WHICH WOULD
ELIMINATE ANY INSTABILITY AND HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS OVERNIGHT
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETTLE THE DIRT. THIS THREAT IS VERY
CONDITIONAL AND MORE IS PLAYING AGAINST IT THAN FOR IT BUT IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. TUESDAY NIGHT, A
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND IS FORECAST TO HAVE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOW 30S DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. A BIT OF A BETTER
SIGNAL FOR FOG IS SEEN AS WELL AS THE 12 HREF IS SHOWING 40%
PROBABILITIES OF HALF MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN AREAS; DUE TO THIS HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. IF THE FOG DOES DEVELOP THAT COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS WELL. CONVERSELY IF FOG IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO FALL THEN SOME
CONCERN FOR FREEZING FOG MAY PRESENT ITSELF AS WELL. WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS THERE IS CONCERN FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AS HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST TO BE HIGHER DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED FOG CONCERNS.
I DID ADD FROST INTO THE FORECAST BUT MAY ONLY BE CONFINED TO
WHERE FOG DOES NOT FORM AT.
WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEPART THE AREA
TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SOME SHORTWAVES
MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BEING THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
500MB JET STREAK AND POTENT 250MB JET STREAK WHICH IS FORECAST
TO FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS
WELL LEADING TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY
FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JET
STREAKS IN PLAY WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME POTENTIAL HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE STORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
***SYNOPSIS***
TROUGHING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGHING WILL TO MOVE IN
OVERHEAD THURSDAY, AND POTENTIALLY LAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA, AND REMAINING TO THE NORTH
OF THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO BECOME A BIT MORE DIVERGENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SATURDAY,
SPECIFICALLY REGARDING WHEN THE TROUGHING OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OUT
AND BE REPLACED BY RIDGING ABOVE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS LEANING
TOWARD RIDGING REPLACING THE TROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON, AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
***WEDNESDAY***
WITH TROUGHING FAVORED TO THE WEST OF THE CWA, CONDITIONS MAY
WARM SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY, WITH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER-60S. IN ADDITION, WITH THE INCOMING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE, THERE MAY BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY, THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF YUMA AND
KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO, WITH AROUND A 40-45% CHANCE OF
RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BE FROM SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS, AS LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS
OVER A 90% CHANCE FOR CAPE (INSTABILITY) TO BE PRESENT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A 75% CHANCE THAT THIS CAPE IS LESS THAN 200
J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LREF 500-MB WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT
RANGE, STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE.
HOWEVER, THE LOWER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WOULD INDICATE THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS.
***THURSDAY/FRIDAY***
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO COOL A LITTLE BIT THURSDAY AS
TROUGHING MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
IN THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S THURSDAY. A MINOR RETURN FLOW MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA FRIDAY THAT SLIGHTLY INCREASES TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER-50S TO
UPPER-60S. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BOTH DAYS, WITH
UP TO A 50% CHANCE THAT OVER 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPERIENCED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.
THURSDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE PROBABLE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS, WITH AT LEAST A 2 OUT OF 3 CHANCE FOR CAPE TO BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT A 90% CHANCE OR BETTER THAT IT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 200 J/KG. WITH 500-MB WINDS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 35 KTS,
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. THESE
PARAMETERS ARE EVEN LOWER ON FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD INDICATE LIGHT
RAIN AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED WEAKER SHOWERS.
***SATURDAY/SUNDAY***
AGAIN, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE REGARDING THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN SATURDAY, THOUGH RIDGING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
MID-60S TO LOWER- 70S, AND LOWER TO UPPER-70S RESPECTIVELY.
PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY, THOUGH BECOMES MUCH
LESS LIKELY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR
ON SATURDAY IS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS, AND IS AS HIGH AS A 50% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE LREF.
HOWEVER, THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT RAIN, AS THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 25% CHANCE OR LESS FOR OVER
0.1 INCHES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY, WITH RIDGING FULLY FAVORED OVERHEAD ACCORDING TO 500-MB
MEAN HEIGHT GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
STRATUS IS SLOWLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR OR NEAR MVFR
CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THIS TAF
PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR GLD. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING FOR GLD AROUND 02Z. DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS
ON THE COVERAGE OF IT DUE TO THE LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF MCK FOR NOW DUE TO
THE STRATUS LOWERING CONFIDENCE SOME AS WELL AND HAVE SOME
CONCERNS IF MCK WILL EVEN BE AFFECTED. STRATUS IS AGAIN FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF LIFR AS WELL FOR EACH
TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...TRIGG
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