709
FXUS63 KGLD 280117
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
717 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO AT LEAST EASTERN COLORADO. A 20%
CHANCE OF A ROGUE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO
QUARTERS.
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SOME SNOW MIXING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AND A LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF A SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION.
- FOG PERHAPS DENSE, AND FROST IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POTENTIAL CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. FAVORED TIMEFRAME IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
MID LEVEL TROUGHING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE
TROUGHING ONGOING. THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THIS AFTERNOON A 500MB SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE
FRONT RANGE LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING OFF OF THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING TOWARDS YUMA, KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE (CO) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAP
FORECAST SOUNDS INDICATE UP TO 500 J/KG OF ML AND MUCAPE AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8.0 C/KM AND WIND SHEAR OF 35-45
KNOTS. FAIRLY SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO YESTERDAY OTHER THAN THE
WEAKER CAPE BUT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE IS POSSIBLE IF A STRONG ENOUGH OF AN UPDRAFT CAN
OCCUR. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LANDSPOUT EITHER WITH
DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS AS RAP INDICATES A POTENTIAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS WESTERN KIT CARSON AND MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN
CHEYENNE (CO) BUT THINK THIS THREAT IS VERY SMALL AS I WOULD
LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES. A BIG CAVEAT TO ANY
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS THE CURRENT STRATUS
LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, IF IT REMAINS THEN THE
INSTABILITY WOULD BE EVEN MORE MINIMAL. RAIN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING MAINLY FAVORING THOSE ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 BUT OVERALL NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING
ANY IMPACTS OVERNIGHT.
A CAVEAT TO THIS HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RATE DRIVEN
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALONG A VERY NARROW 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND
AFTER 3AM MOUNTAIN TIME. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO CURRENTLY
BUT ALL OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS YUMA, AND WESTERN DUNDY AND CHEYENNE
(KS). THIS MAY BE A TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT SCENARIO AS WELL
ESPECIALLY IF TEMPERATURES CAN REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER TO HELP
KEEP THE WET BULBING TEMPERATURE A LITTLE WARMER. IF EVERYTHING
CAN COME TOGETHER RIGHT I CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS CAN COME TOGETHER. THE 00Z EFI IS ALSO SHOWING A
SMALL CORRIDOR OF A SHIFT OF TAILS ACROSS EASTERN YUMA COUNTY
WHICH DOES RAISE MY CONCERN A BIT WHICH IS IN THE AREA WHERE 12Z
NAM SHOWS SOME CAPE IN THE 850-800MB LAYER. CONFIDENCE OF A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IS LESS THAN 5% BUT AROUND 20% THAT SOME
OF THE RAIN COULD TRANSITION OVER AS MOST GUIDANCE'S WET BULB
ZERO SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL.
FURTHER SOUTH WE WILL AGAIN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG AND DRIZZLE
FORMATION AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND LOW
LEVELS SATURATE AND WEAK OMEGA DEVELOPS AROUND 850MB. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT QUITE THERE TO PUT FOG INTO THE FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. DESPITE CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES
BEING BELOW 36 DEGREES AM OPTING TO NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH ACTUALLY MAY HELP ISOLATE THE SURFACE
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN WARMER THAN FORECAST.
RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. DUE FOR THE CONCERNS OF THICK
CLOUDS HAVE BROUGHT DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES. I DIDN'T COMPLETELY
TANK THEM AS THEY COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT IF THESE BREAKS DO NOT OCCUR THEN TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE EVEN COOLER AND STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR
HIGHS. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CURRENTLY SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE
TO CAPE AROUND 50-100 J/KG. THE ONE CAVEAT THOUGH IS IF OUTFLOW
CAN EMANATE FROM THIS CONVECTION AND MAKE IT'S OWN MESOSCALE
PRESSURE RISES. IF THIS IS THE CASE, THEN SEVERE WINDS AROUND 60
MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG FLOW AROUND 700MB. THIS
WOULD ALSO RAISE THE CONCERN OF A HABOOB AS NASASPORT CURRENTLY
SHOWS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA STILL ONLY HAVE LESS THAN 2%
0-10CM SOIL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A BIG CAVEAT TO THIS POTENTIAL
HOWEVER IS IF WE STAY SOCKED IN CLOUDS ALL DAY WHICH WOULD
ELIMINATE ANY INSTABILITY AND HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS OVERNIGHT
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETTLE THE DIRT. THIS THREAT IS VERY
CONDITIONAL AND MORE IS PLAYING AGAINST IT THAN FOR IT BUT IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. TUESDAY NIGHT, A
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND IS FORECAST TO HAVE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOW 30S DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. A BIT OF A BETTER
SIGNAL FOR FOG IS SEEN AS WELL AS THE 12 HREF IS SHOWING 40%
PROBABILITIES OF HALF MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN AREAS; DUE TO THIS HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. IF THE FOG DOES DEVELOP THAT COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS WELL. CONVERSELY IF FOG IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO FALL THEN SOME
CONCERN FOR FREEZING FOG MAY PRESENT ITSELF AS WELL. WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS THERE IS CONCERN FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AS HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST TO BE HIGHER DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED FOG CONCERNS.
I DID ADD FROST INTO THE FORECAST BUT MAY ONLY BE CONFINED TO
WHERE FOG DOES NOT FORM AT.
WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEPART THE AREA
TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SOME SHORTWAVES
MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BEING THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
500MB JET STREAK AND POTENT 250MB JET STREAK WHICH IS FORECAST
TO FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS
WELL LEADING TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY
FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JET
STREAKS IN PLAY WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME POTENTIAL HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE STORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 716 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
THURSDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE
FROM 44-87% THURSDAY, WITH THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA ON THE
HIGHER END. RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
DIMINISHES AFTER SUNDOWN, BUT OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 20-65% OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.
WE REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FOR FRIDAY, THOUGH IT IS
WEAKER OVERALL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. POPS OF
25-55% ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA). TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S.
GOING IN TO THE WEEKEND, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RIDGE PATTERN.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 70S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE HIGH TEENS WITH WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE
FOR THE WESTERN CWA. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN RESPONSE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE WEEK, BUT STILL SOMETHING
TO MONITOR FOR AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MONDAY, WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
A ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST
COAST. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GREATLY VARY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM, SO LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO START THIS TAF PERIOD. STILL
WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT GLD BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO ANYTHING OTHER THAN PROB30
AT THIS TIME. STRATUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST
AFTER 06Z WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AND A 40% CHANCE OF LIFR.
STILL CONTINUING TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT MCK
AS WELL. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AFTER 12Z MAY BE THE
MORE FAVORED TIME BUT WANT TO SEE HOW THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION
OFF OF THE FRONT RANGE PROGRESSES BEFORE PUTTING INTO THE TAF.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...TRIGG
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