160
FXUS63 KGLD 281829
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1229 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN COLORADO,
WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UP
TO QUARTER SIZED.
- PATCHY TO DENSE FOG, POTENTIALLY FREEZING FOG, AND FROST IS
FORECAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE LIKE TODAY'S STORM POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A 500 MB
TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH A HIGH OVER MEXICO IS
LEADING TO AN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED WAVES. THIS IS
CAUSING WAVES OF VORTICITY TO FREQUENTLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION,
INCLUDING IN THE MIDDAY TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DURING THE MIDDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THESE
SHOWERS, AND AN ISOLATED STRIKE OF LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, A FEW
STORMS LOOK TO FIRE NEAR NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE. THESE STORMS LOOK
TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE DUE TO A LACK OF CAPE AND MODERATELY WEAK
SHEAR. THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE HAIL IF AN
ISOLATED CELL CAN TAP INTO A LOCALIZED WELL OF CAPE. THESE STORMS
LOOK TO QUICKLY FALL APART NEAR THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER.
TONIGHT, WITH THE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS, FOG LOOKS LIKELY. AS IT
STANDS, PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA, BUT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GRINNELL, KS
TO YUMA, CO ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE VISIBILITY DROP TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF A MILE. ADDITIONALLY, THIS AREA COULD SEE PATCHY FREEZING
FOG AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. SLICK SPOTS,
ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES, ARE POSSIBLE. FROST IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH
MAY DAMAGE OR KILL VEGETATION.
TOMORROW, THE FOG SHOULD BE LIFTING BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60. CONVECTION TOMORROW LOOKS TO START
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AROUND THE U.S. 36/34 AREA, WEST OF KS 25.
ONCE AGAIN, THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AND HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, STRATIFORM RAIN
LOOKS TO DOMINATE AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THANKFULLY,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY MORNING, MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST A
TRACE OF PRECIPITATION AND LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF GOODLAND, KS
POTENTIALLY RECEIVING A COUPLE TENTHS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 716 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
THURSDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE
FROM 44-87% THURSDAY, WITH THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA ON THE
HIGHER END. RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
DIMINISHES AFTER SUNDOWN, BUT OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 20-65% OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.
WE REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FOR FRIDAY, THOUGH IT IS
WEAKER OVERALL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. POPS OF
25-55% ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA). TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S.
GOING IN TO THE WEEKEND, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RIDGE PATTERN.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 70S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE HIGH TEENS WITH WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE
FOR THE WESTERN CWA. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN RESPONSE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE WEEK, BUT STILL SOMETHING
TO MONITOR FOR AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MONDAY, WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
A ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST
COAST. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GREATLY VARY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM, SO LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
KGLD WILL BREAK FREE OF THE MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 19Z, BUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY (15% CHANCE) OCCUR BEFORE CONDITION
IMPROVE. THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM COLORADO AND DROP THE AIRPORT BACK TO
MVFR. THIS CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END BY 0Z, FOLLOWED
BY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR FOG TO
IMPACT KGLD TOMORROW MORNING AND MORE STORMS TOMORROW ARE
POSSIBLE.
KMCK WILL HOLD ONTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL CLOSER TO 22Z. WE
ARE EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS TO IMPACT KMCK BEFORE THEN,
POTENTIALLY DROPPING THE AIRPORT TO IFR. WINDS LOOK TO LARGELY
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF VFR THIS
EVENING BEFORE FOG MOVES IN. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS IFR
VISIBILITIES, BUT THIS COULD EASILY DROP TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS.
THIS COULD ALSO BE FREEZING FOG, LEADING TO RAPID ICING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
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