322
FXUS63 KGLD 122126
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
326 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK, HOTTEST ON THU-FRI
WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80'S TO MID 90'S.
- MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME,
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (BELOW ~25 MPH) APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR.
- VERY LOW (5-10%) CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 (NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES)
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY MAY 14.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING A
FEW HOURS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS. HRRR AND NAMNEST IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE BETWEEN 12-15Z,
THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH, BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MAY SEE SOME BLOWING DUST AND MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AS WELL WITH THE WIND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 20%, PERHAPS 15-20% IN NORTHEAST
PART OF THE AREA AROUND MCCOOK, BUT WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS
NOT EXPECTING TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA (15% RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND GUSTS OF 25 MPH) FOR THE REQUIRED 3 HOUR MINIMUM TO WARRANT
A HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
IN COLORADO TO THE MIDDLE 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HEIGHTS RISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA AT 00Z/THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE WITH A WEAK WAVE RIDING UP THE RIDGE
AXIS IN THE AFTERNOON AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE ANY PROGRESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON, STRONGEST IN COLORADO, WHERE GUSTS OF 20-25KTS ARE
FORECAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL BE AROUND 20% ONCE
AGAIN, SO MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN COLORADO WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WIND
DIRECTIONS LACK A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT SO MAY BE
DIFFICULT FOR LOWER DEW POINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BE REALIZED
AND CONFIDENCE IS LACKING FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
***SYNOPSIS***
FRIDAY MORNING, APPROXIMATELY ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED TO EXIST AT 500-
MB OVER THE CWA, WITH A WEAK, BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH FEATURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST, PRODUCING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE LOW MAY KEEP SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF THE
NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY, BUT DEEPENING OF THE LOW
ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES LOOKS TO
DEVELOP A STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LOOKS TO UNDERGO MODERATE TO INTENSE DEEPENING, ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW TO MID-LEVEL COOLING. THIS FEATURE IS FAVORED TO DIG INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
THESE TWO TROUGHING FEATURES MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVE WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS FAVORED TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST
REGION SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
MOVES IN OVERHEAD. MOVING FORWARD, AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY CONTINUE AS
TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST.
***FRIDAY***
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO SLIGHT
COOLING FROM THURSDAY, THOUGH HOT CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-80S TO MID-90S. DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY, WITH FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH) IN THE LOW TO MID-
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE
A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS, SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO WHERE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST IN
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-70% CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS TO MEET CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD IN THIS ZONE, WITH
THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE IN NORTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE LREF IS IN SUPPORT OF LOWER RH VALUES IN
EASTERN COLORADO, WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA IN A 50-70% CHANCE
FOR RH BELOW 15%. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS
HAZARD TO OCCUR, AND THAT IS THAT WIND GUSTS LOOK TO DROP OFF AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DRIER CONDITIONS
IS INCREASING, CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED IS
ONLY AROUND 10-15% CONSIDERING THE WEAKENING WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
***SATURDAY***
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND BROADEN INTO PORTIONS OF
COLORADO, A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST IN THE MID-80S TO LOWER-90S. GEFS 850-MB
HEIGHT MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, WITH A LOW IN CENTRAL
MEXICO. THESE FEATURES, ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, COULD WORK TOGETHER TO PROVIDE MOISTURE IN THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOME AREAS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS, PARTICULARLY AREAS
EAST OF US-83, HAVE GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE DEW
POINTS 50 DEGREES OR HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY, A WARM FRONT MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS KANSAS DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH A DRYLINE NEAR
THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THESE FEATURES ARE IN QUESTION, AS LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SPREAD OF 60- 70 DEGREES IN WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN SO, SURFACE CAPE VALUES UP
TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
30-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. CONFIDENCE IN A SEVERE EVENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS INCREASED, BUT IS RIGHT
AROUND 10% AT BEST.
***SUNDAY***
SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD, THOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY BE
ADDED TO THE MIX. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS FAVORED TO TAKE PLACE
SOMEWHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
GEFS 850-MB MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT, PLACING A LOW ACROSS THIS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY INTRODUCE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE CWA, AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE. HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP, AS REPRESENTED BY
LREF 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE SPREAD IN DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OF
15-25 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS WEST OF THE DRYLINE MAY
SEE RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE MID-TEENS, WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING CYCLONE. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST
OF EASTERN COLORADO HAS A 75-90% CHANCE OF GUSTS MEETING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
DRYLINE. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, LREF 90TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 2000-2500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE CAN'T BE RULED OUT. GFS
AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UP TO 40 KTS OF 0- 6 KM
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN.
HAZARDS FROM SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. WHILE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO EXIST REGARDING THE
POSITIONING OF THE DRYLINE, CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING
BEING NEEDED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS ABOUT 20% AT THIS TIME, WITH
ABOUT 10% CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
***MONDAY/TUESDAY***
AS TROUGHING MOVES OVER THE AREA MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
DECREASE A BIT INTO THE UPPER-60S TO UPPER-70S MONDAY, AND MID-70S
TO LOWER-80S TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY, THOUGH LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT, WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT IS AROUND 0.1
INCHES OR LESS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO FAVOR TROUGHING TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AROUND THIS TIME, WHICH MAY INDICATE A
CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM A FEW TRANSIENT WISPS OF CIRRUS, CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. AT 16Z THIS MORNING, WINDS WERE FROM THE
NNE-NE AT 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS. NE WINDS WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, DECREASING TO
15-20 KNOTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
(18-19Z), 10-15 KNOTS W/GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
(~22Z), THEN BECOMING EASTERLY AND WEAKENING TO 8-13 KNOTS
AROUND SUNSET (02-03Z). LIGHT E WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSE OR S
BY SUNRISE (~12Z WED) AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, AT/NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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