706
FXUS63 KGLD 122238
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK, HOTTEST ON THU-FRI
WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80'S TO MID 90'S.
- MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME,
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (BELOW ~25 MPH) APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR.
- VERY LOW (5-10%) CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 (NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES)
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY MAY 14.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
OVERVIEW: A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS (WED-WED NIGHT) AND
MS RIVER VALLEY (THU-THU NIGHT).. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST (LATE TONIGHT) TRACKS ENE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES (WED-WED NIGHT) AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/
MANITOBA (THU-THU NIGHT). MEANWHILE, A SOUTHERN STREAM (OR
SUBTROPICAL) JET IN THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC WILL EXTEND ENE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THU-THU
NIGHT.
THROUGH TONIGHT: NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PEAKED ~8-10 AM MDT
(14-16Z) THIS MORNING WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS ~35-43 MPH, EXCEPT AT
HILL CITY.. WHERE WINDS PEAKED SLIGHTLY LATER (~11 AM MDT) AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER (48 MPH AT 1705Z). WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY (AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NEBRASKA),
DECREASING TO ~15 MPH W/GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
(~22Z) THEN BECOMING EASTERLY AND WEAKENING TO 5-10 MPH AROUND
SUNSET (02-03Z). LIGHT E WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSE OR S BY
SUNRISE, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PROGRESSES SSE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT (WED MORNING)
LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 40'S.
WED-WED NIGHT: A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WILL RETURN DURING THE
DAY AS THE MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT REORIENTS/TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO RENEWED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS /LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT/ IN CO. MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CO-
KS BORDER. EXPECT HIGHS ~81-85F AND MINIMUM RH READINGS ~20-25%
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, EXCEPT IN RED WILLOW, DECATUR
AND NORTON COUNTIES WHERE RH MAY BOTTOM-OUT ~15-20%. SSE TO S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH W/GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY LATE
MORNING IN EASTERN CO AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN KS/NE. IN EASTERN
CO AND NEARBY KANSAS BORDER COUNTIES, SSE TO S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH W/GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
BETWEEN ~5-8 PM MDT (~23-02Z). BASICALLY, THE BREEZIEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN LOCATIONS WHERE RH IS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN AT/ABOVE 20% AND THE LOCATIONS WITH THE LOWEST RH ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS AT/BELOW 25 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING (~5-8P MDT). BREEZY S TO SE WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO WED NIGHT, THEN WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND SUNRISE AS A BROAD LEE TROUGH IN CO EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER
WESTERN KS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT (THU MORNING) LOWS IN THE 50'S.
THU-THU NIGHT: NOTICEABLY WARMER/DRIER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BROAD LEE TROUGH (OR WEAK, BAGGY
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
IN THIS PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS ~89-96F.. MINIMUM RH ~10-20% AND
LIGHT (5-15 MPH) W TO NW WINDS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA/DAY.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING MAY FOSTER SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO ~30 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST CO WHERE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT. LIGHT WINDS ARE -THE- LIMITING FACTOR, THE -ONLY-
FACTOR PREVENTING WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY.
CONVECTION: THERE IS A VERY LOW (5-10%) CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ALONG/EAST OF HWY 283 (NORTON/
GRAHAM COUNTIES) LATE THU AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
DRYLINE, OR.. EASTERN FRINGE OF THE WEAK, BAGGY SURFACE LOW..
WILL BE IN CENTRAL KS (EAST OF THE GOODLAND CWA). AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT-WED
MORNING WILL ERODE THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND 'STEAMROLL' A
ZONAL /WESTERLY/ FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT
TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES (WED NIGHT) AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA (THU-THU NIGHT).. PLACING THE TRI-STATE
AREA ON THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE /ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE/ OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET (EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS). AT THE SAME TIME, THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL
BE WELL-NORTH/FAR-REMOVED FROM CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET (EXTENDING ENE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS). ALL OF THIS IS
TO SAY THAT, UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE IN SHORT SUPPLY /
ABSENT FROM CENTRAL-WESTERN KS, AND.. EVEN IF THE DRYLINE IS IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GOODLAND CWA, IT'S FAR FROM CLEAR THAT
MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAP RESIDING ATOP RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. IF SEVERE WEATHER IS TO BE HAD IN WESTERN
KS, IT WOULD PROBABLY BE IN THE FORM OF BRIEF/LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND ASSOC/W VIRGA EMANATING FROM SEEMINGLY INNOCUOUS HIGH-
BASED CU WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
***SYNOPSIS***
FRIDAY MORNING, APPROXIMATELY ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED TO EXIST AT
500- MB OVER THE CWA, WITH A WEAK, BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH FEATURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST, PRODUCING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW MAY KEEP SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY,
BUT DEEPENING OF THE LOW ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES LOOKS TO DEVELOP A STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE UNITED STATES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOOKS TO UNDERGO
MODERATE TO INTENSE DEEPENING, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID-LEVEL
COOLING. THIS FEATURE IS FAVORED TO DIG INTO PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THESE TWO
TROUGHING FEATURES MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVE WEATHER DURING
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS FAVORED TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST
REGION SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
MOVES IN OVERHEAD. MOVING FORWARD, AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY
CONTINUE AS TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST.
***FRIDAY***
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO
SLIGHT COOLING FROM THURSDAY, THOUGH HOT CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
TO REMAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-80S TO MID-90S. DRY
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY, WITH FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH)
IN THE LOW TO MID- TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY TO MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS, SPECIFICALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET
CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD IN THIS ZONE, WITH THE HIGHER END OF
THIS RANGE IN NORTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY, THE LREF
IS IN SUPPORT OF LOWER RH VALUES IN EASTERN COLORADO, WITH
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA IN A 50-70% CHANCE FOR RH BELOW 15%.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS HAZARD TO OCCUR,
AND THAT IS THAT WIND GUSTS LOOK TO DROP OFF AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DRIER CONDITIONS IS INCREASING,
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED IS ONLY AROUND
10-15% CONSIDERING THE WEAKENING WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
***SATURDAY***
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND BROADEN INTO
PORTIONS OF COLORADO, A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS LIKELY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST IN THE MID-80S TO
LOWER-90S. GEFS 850-MB HEIGHT MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES, WITH A LOW IN CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE FEATURES,
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, COULD WORK TOGETHER TO PROVIDE MOISTURE IN THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOME AREAS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS, PARTICULARLY
AREAS EAST OF US-83, HAVE GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE TO
EXPERIENCE DEW POINTS 50 DEGREES OR HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY, A WARM
FRONT MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS KANSAS DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH
A DRYLINE NEAR THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER, THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES ARE IN QUESTION, AS LREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SPREAD OF 60- 70 DEGREES IN WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN SO, SURFACE CAPE
VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA CAN'T BE RULED OUT. GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT 30-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. CONFIDENCE IN A SEVERE EVENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS INCREASED, BUT IS RIGHT
AROUND 10% AT BEST.
***SUNDAY***
SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD, THOUGH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER MAY BE ADDED TO THE MIX. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS FAVORED TO
TAKE PLACE SOMEWHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS. GEFS 850-MB MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS ASSESSMENT, PLACING A LOW ACROSS THIS REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INTRODUCE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE
CWA, AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP, AS
REPRESENTED BY LREF 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE SPREAD IN DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES OF 15-25 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS WEST OF
THE DRYLINE MAY SEE RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE MID-TEENS, WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING CYCLONE. NBM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO HAS A 75-90% CHANCE
OF GUSTS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DRYLINE. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, LREF 90TH
PERCENTILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 2000-2500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UP
TO 40 KTS OF 0- 6 KM SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN. HAZARDS FROM SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO
EXIST REGARDING THE POSITIONING OF THE DRYLINE, CONFIDENCE IN A
RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS ABOUT 20%
AT THIS TIME, WITH ABOUT 10% CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
***MONDAY/TUESDAY***
AS TROUGHING MOVES OVER THE AREA MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO DECREASE A BIT INTO THE UPPER-60S TO UPPER-70S MONDAY, AND
MID-70S TO LOWER-80S TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY, THOUGH LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT, WIDESPREAD RAIN
THAT IS AROUND 0.1 INCHES OR LESS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
FAVOR TROUGHING TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AROUND THIS TIME,
WHICH MAY INDICATE A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM A FEW TRANSIENT WISPS OF CIRRUS, CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING EASTERLY AND WEAKENING TO 8-13 KNOTS
AROUND SUNSET (02-03Z). LIGHT E WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSE OR S
BY SUNRISE (~12Z WED) AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, AT/NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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