964
FXUS63 KGLD 131741
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1141 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK, HOTTEST ON THU-FRI
WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80'S TO MID 90'S.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY IN
COLORADO, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 15-20% AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
- LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY SPRINKLES AND
VIRGA THIS EVENING.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH LOW PRESSURE SETTING IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW WINDS TO STAY BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY SEEN WINDS AROUND 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WITH THESE SPEEDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO SEE SOME BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS IF THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS TOO SLOW IN BRINGING IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE, SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
DAY.
THIS EVENING, CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO TRY AND PUSH IN BEHIND THE RIDGE AND BRING HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS IS ALSO FORECAST TO BRING A 10% OR LESS CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
STAY UP AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE WHEN THE SURFACE LOW MOVES MORE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S.
THURSDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING INTO AND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. WITH THE
LOW OVER THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO 10-
15 MPH, BUT VARYING IN DIRECTION DEPENDING ON WHAT SIDE OF THE LOW
YOU ARE ON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST. EVEN WITH THE
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO AROUND 90 WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO WINDS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH CONVERGENCE ZONES SETTING UP ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A
30-50 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION, WHICH SHOULD HINDER HOW MANY
STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. WE DO HAVE A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AS DRY MICROBURSTS WILL BE A CONCERNS WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. WITH THIS, THERE COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS THAT REACH 60-70 MPH. AS FOR HAIL, MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY AND HAVE TOO LITTLE INSTABILITY
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH HAIL. FURTHER EAST, THE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT HIGHER (MUCAPE ~1000 J/KG)
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IF A STORM SUSTAINS ITSELF, IT WOULDN'T BE
UNREASONABLE FOR HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN SIZE TO OCCUR. THE OVERALL
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 5-10% WITH A
FEW SPOTTY INSTANCES IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR.
FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BROADENING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL PUT
THE AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH 80S FOR THE WESTERN HALF AND LOW 90S
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IF THE WINDS CAN BE STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR NOW THOUGH, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
BROAD AND WEAKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY GOES ALONG. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF
THE AIR COLUMN. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS WHEN UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING IS FORECAST TO KEEP SHOWERS GENERALLY WEST
OF THE AREA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
***SYNOPSIS***
SATURDAY, A TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND LOOKS
TO DEVELOP A STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME,
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOOKS TO UNDERGO MODERATE TO INTENSE
DEEPENING, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID-LEVEL COOLING. THIS
FEATURE IS FAVORED TO DIG INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THESE TWO TROUGHING FEATURES
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT IS FAVORED TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST REGION SOMETIME
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. MOVING FORWARD, AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY CONTINUE AS
TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST.
***SATURDAY***
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND BROADEN INTO
PORTIONS OF COLORADO, A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS LIKELY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST IN THE MID-80S TO
LOWER-90S. GEFS 850-MB HEIGHT MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES, WITH A LOW IN CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE FEATURES,
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, COULD WORK TOGETHER TO PROVIDE MOISTURE IN THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOME AREAS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS, PARTICULARLY
AREAS EAST OF US-83, HAVE GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE TO
EXPERIENCE DEW POINTS 50 DEGREES OR HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY, A WARM
FRONT MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS KANSAS DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH
A DRYLINE NEAR THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER, THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES ARE IN QUESTION, AS LREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SPREAD OF 60- 70 DEGREES IN WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN SO, SURFACE CAPE
VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA CAN'T BE RULED OUT. GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT 30-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. CONFIDENCE IN A SEVERE EVENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS INCREASED, BUT IS RIGHT
AROUND 10% AT BEST.
***SUNDAY***
SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD, THOUGH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER MAY BE ADDED TO THE MIX. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS FAVORED TO
TAKE PLACE SOMEWHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS. GEFS 850-MB MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS ASSESSMENT, PLACING A LOW ACROSS THIS REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INTRODUCE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE
CWA, AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP, AS
REPRESENTED BY LREF 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE SPREAD IN DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES OF 15-25 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS WEST OF
THE DRYLINE MAY SEE RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE MID-TEENS, WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING CYCLONE. NBM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO HAS A 75-90% CHANCE
OF GUSTS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DRYLINE. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, LREF 90TH
PERCENTILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 2000-2500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UP
TO 40 KTS OF 0- 6 KM SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN. HAZARDS FROM SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO
EXIST REGARDING THE POSITIONING OF THE DRYLINE, CONFIDENCE IN A
RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS ABOUT 20%
AT THIS TIME, WITH ABOUT 10% CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
***MONDAY/TUESDAY***
AS TROUGHING MOVES OVER THE AREA MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO DECREASE A BIT INTO THE UPPER-60S TO UPPER-70S MONDAY, AND
MID-70S TO LOWER-80S TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY, THOUGH LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT, WIDESPREAD RAIN
THAT IS AROUND 0.1 INCHES OR LESS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
FAVOR TROUGHING TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AROUND THIS TIME,
WHICH MAY INDICATE A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES OR HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10000FT AFTER 00Z.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15-25 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BE ALERT FOR SPORADIC GUSTS NEAR 30-35 KTS. OTHERWISE,
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
AROUND 200FT FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS AFTER 02-03Z.
THIS COULD LINGER UNTIL 12Z, ESPECIALLY FOR KMCK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...KAK
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