516
FXUS63 KGLD 132155
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
355 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK, HOTTEST ON THU-FRI
WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80'S TO MID 90'S.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY IN
COLORADO, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 15-20% AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
- LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY SPRINKLES AND
VIRGA THIS EVENING.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH LOW PRESSURE SETTING IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW WINDS TO STAY BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY SEEN WINDS AROUND 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WITH THESE SPEEDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO SEE SOME BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS IF THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS TOO SLOW IN BRINGING IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE, SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
DAY.
THIS EVENING, CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO TRY AND PUSH IN BEHIND THE RIDGE AND BRING HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS IS ALSO FORECAST TO BRING A 10% OR LESS CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
STAY UP AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE WHEN THE SURFACE LOW MOVES MORE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S.
THURSDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING INTO AND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. WITH THE
LOW OVER THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO 10-
15 MPH, BUT VARYING IN DIRECTION DEPENDING ON WHAT SIDE OF THE LOW
YOU ARE ON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST. EVEN WITH THE
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO AROUND 90 WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO WINDS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH CONVERGENCE ZONES SETTING UP ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A
30-50 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION, WHICH SHOULD HINDER HOW MANY
STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. WE DO HAVE A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AS DRY MICROBURSTS WILL BE A CONCERNS WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. WITH THIS, THERE COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS THAT REACH 60-70 MPH. AS FOR HAIL, MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY AND HAVE TOO LITTLE INSTABILITY
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH HAIL. FURTHER EAST, THE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT HIGHER (MUCAPE ~1000 J/KG)
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IF A STORM SUSTAINS ITSELF, IT WOULDN'T BE
UNREASONABLE FOR HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN SIZE TO OCCUR. THE OVERALL
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 5-10% WITH A
FEW SPOTTY INSTANCES IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR.
FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BROADENING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL PUT
THE AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH 80S FOR THE WESTERN HALF AND LOW 90S
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IF THE WINDS CAN BE STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR NOW THOUGH, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
BROAD AND WEAKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY GOES ALONG. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF
THE AIR COLUMN. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS WHEN UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE
OVERALL LACK OF FORCING IS FORECAST TO KEEP SHOWERS GENERALLY WEST
OF THE AREA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
***SYNOPSIS***
BROAD TROUGHING LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
IS FAVORED TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
KANSAS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS FLOW. THIS SURFACE LOW MAY PERSIST
IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN GOING INTO MONDAY REGARDING WHERE THE
INCOMING TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED. GEFS AND EC 500-MB HEIGHT MEAN-
SPREAD GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST
REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE TROUGH MAY STILL MOVE IN OVERHEAD AS SOON AS
MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE DIVERGENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTICS AND
ENSEMBLES BY WEDNESDAY.
***SATURDAY***
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
FAVORED TO ESTABLISH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA, WITH APPROXIMATELY SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE MOISTURE IN THIS
RETURN TO NUDGE INTO THE CWA. ACCORDING TO LREF GUIDANCE, MOST OF
THE AREA HAS AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 40, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283
HAVE A 50% CHANCE OR BETTER TO EXPERIENCE DEW POINTS ABOVE 50.
HIGHER END SCENARIOS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO UPPER 50 DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES AS FAR WEST AS THE KANSAS-27 CORRIDOR. CAPE
VALUES (A MEASURE OF INSTABILITY) MAY HAVE A REASONABLE MAXIMUM OF
ABOUT 2000 J/KG, THOUGH MOST SCENARIOS SHOW 750-1500 J/KG BEING THE
MOST LIKELY RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHICH
COULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. CONSIDERING
THE HIGHER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BE EXPERIENCED, STORMS WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED (2 KM OR HIGHER), LIMITING THE TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER, STRONGER STORMS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS AND
POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
SATURDAY ARE ABOUT 15-20%, THE LIMITING FACTORS BEING HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLAY FOR STORMS TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF.
***SUNDAY***
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY, WITH CONTINUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, WITH
THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF COLORADO,
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD INTRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
A DRYLINE. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE DRYLINE
WILL SET UP, AS NOTED BY THE 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE SPREAD IN DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 10-20 DEGREE RANGE. WHAT
CAN BE SAID IS THAT AREAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE COULD EXPERIENCE LOW TO
MID TEEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH), WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S OUT
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. WHAT MAKES THIS SCENARIO ABOUT THE DRYLINE
INTERESTING IS THAT THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING IN COLORADO MAY ALLOW
SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND IN THE FORM OF A HOOK IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AS SUCH, WE MAY SEE A SCENARIO WHERE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS) RECEIVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS, AS OPPOSED TO A
TYPICAL SCENARIO WHERE THE DRYLINE IS ORIENTED NORTH-TO-SOUTH.
REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WIND GUSTS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS ARE FORECAST IN THE 30-45
MPH RANGE. NBM GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO,
SUGGESTING A 50-80% CHANCE ACROSS THIS ZONE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL
EXCEED 30 MPH. CONSIDERING THAT RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID-
TEENS ARE POSSIBLE, STRONGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY EXIST FROM THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED BEHIND THE DRYLINE
IS AROUND 30%, AS WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO EXCEED CRITERIA BY AT
LEAST 5-10 MPH, AND RH VALUES HAVE A 50% CHANCE OR BETTER TO
FALL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ACCORDING TO LREF
GUIDANCE.
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, LREF GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING A
50-70% CHANCE FOR DEW POINTS IN THE 50S OR HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR, AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS-27 CORRIDOR. A
REASONABLE MAXIMUM FOR CAPE VALUES LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2500 J/KG EAST
OF THE DRYLINE, WITH A REASONABLE RANGE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.
FURTHER, GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN LINE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 50-60 KTS. AGAIN, LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY HAZARDS FROM STRONGER STORMS, WITH TORNADOES LESS LIKELY
DUE TO STORMS BEING HIGHER-BASED. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OUT
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY AROUND 15%.
***MONDAY-WEDNESDAY***
AGAIN, MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES DIVERGENT BY MONDAY, THOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW APPEARS FAVORED BASED ON GEFS AND EC 500-MB
HEIGHT MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD BE CAUSED BY TROUGHING THAT
REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. GENERALLY, THIS COULD FAVOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES, BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE DROPS HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS LOW AS THE LOWER-60S. THIS MAY BE DUE TO MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW FROM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SLIGHTLY EAST, ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO
COME INTO THE AREA, OR TROUGHING MOVING IN OVERHEAD. EVEN SO, NBM
GUIDANCE DOES STILL HAVE 75TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND
90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY, WITH THE COOLER
CONDITIONS MUCH MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY. REGARDLESS, FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, WITH NBM 48 HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
TOTALS AROUND 0.1 INCHES FROM ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE DIVERGENT, THOUGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS THE INDICATION OF TROUGHING ACROSS A WIDE PORTION OF THE
UNITED STATES. DETERMINISTICS ARE FAIRLY UNCERTAIN ON THE PLACEMENT.
IF TROUGHING CAN REMAIN TO THE WEST, CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MAY BE EXPERIENCED. HOWEVER, TROUGHING OVERHEAD MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES OR HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10000FT AFTER 00Z.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15-25 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BE ALERT FOR SPORADIC GUSTS NEAR 30-35 KTS. OTHERWISE,
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
AROUND 200FT FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS AFTER 02-03Z.
THIS COULD LINGER UNTIL 12Z, ESPECIALLY FOR KMCK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...KAK
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