041
FXUS63 KGLD 140806
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
206 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK, HOTTEST ON THU-FRI WHEN
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80'S TO MID 90'S.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY,
AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY MAY ALSO HAVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A 500 MB RIDGE, SOME LIGHT
VORTICITY IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES TO APPEAR ON RADAR. THESE
ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VIRGA, BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY REACH
THE GROUND IN EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS
GUSTY AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. THESE WINDS WILL WORK TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S.
TODAY, A SHORTWAVE 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW AN 850 MB LOW TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME WAA
BEFORE A DIFFUSED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CWA. THE WAA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE INTO THE LOW 90S. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE
RH VALUES INTO THE TEENS, WITH EASTERN COLORADO SEEING LOW TEEN RH
VALUES. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20-23 KTS RANGE FOR THIS DRY
AREA. THERE IS 75% CONFIDENCE THAT BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN YUMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY 50%
CONFIDENCE RED FLAG CRITERIA IS HIT. THIS LACK OF CONFIDENCE IS
PREVENTING US FROM ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY. IT'S ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT THE FRONT AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO A
LIGHTNING-FIRE THREAT AND CHAOTIC, SHIFTY WINDS.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE
AROUND 19-21Z NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. HAIL
AND WIND LOOK TO BE THE HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS. THE HAIL THREAT
LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA. IF
A SUPERCELL CAN FORM FREE OF ANY COMPETITION FROM OTHER UPDRAFTS, IT
WOULD LIKELY TAKE A MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY COURSE AND COULD PRODUCE
UP TO 2 INCH HAIL. MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA, AND WOULD BE EXITING THE CWA AS IT
HITS ITS STRIDE.
AS FAR AS THE WIND THREAT, WE ARE LOOKING AT GENERAL GUSTS BEING IN
THE 40-60 MPH RANGE, BUT GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THESE
WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PREVIOUS DAYS, WE ARE
WORRIED ABOUT BLOWING DUST, EVEN A WALL OF DUST, LEADING TO
LOCALIZED BROWNOUT CONDITIONS. MOST LIKELY THREAT TIMING WILL BE
BETWEEN 21-1Z. STORMS LOOK TO EXIT THE CWA AROUND 1-3Z.
TONIGHT, A FAIRLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW SETS UP, AS THE 850 MB LOW
STALLS OUT NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE LOW STALLING OUT WILL SET
UP A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S.
FRIDAY, WE LOOK TO GET SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL EASTERLY RETURN FLOW AS
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEAKENS AND BROADENS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
WARM TO AROUND 90, ONCE AGAIN DRIVING RH VALUES INTO THE LOW TEENS.
THANKFULLY, THE DIFFUSING LOW NEAR THE CWA WILL PREVENT ANY 25 MPH
GUSTS FROM OCCURRING, SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
THE CONVECTION THREAT FOR FRIDAY IS A BIT OF AN UNKNOWN AT THIS
POINT, BUT IT'S LOOKING MORE LIKE AND OVERNIGHT THREAT. AROUND 0-6Z,
500 MB VORTICITY FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INVIGORATE ANOTHER
WEAK 850 MB LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS
TO FIRE NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AND MOVE EAST. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS, POTENTIALLY OVER 2 INCHES BASED ON
ANALOG DATA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 2,000-3,000 J/KG CAPE, EBWD AROUND
50 KTS, AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OVER 8 C/KM. A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE, ELIMINATING THE TORNADIC THREAT.
HOWEVER, BESIDES THE INVERSION, NEARLY ALL OTHER SOUNDING PARAMETERS
SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS IS IMPORTANT IF THE STORMS OCCUR
AROUND SUNSET, AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY NOT HAVE SET UP YET.
THE THREAT WINDOW FOR THESE STORMS STARTS AROUND 0Z AND LASTS UNTIL
AROUND 12Z, BUT ONCE STORMS START THEY ONLY LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
CWA FOR ABOUT 4-6 HOURS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
***SYNOPSIS***
BROAD TROUGHING LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
IS FAVORED TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
KANSAS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS FLOW. THIS SURFACE LOW MAY PERSIST
IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN GOING INTO MONDAY REGARDING WHERE THE
INCOMING TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED. GEFS AND EC 500-MB HEIGHT MEAN-
SPREAD GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST
REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE TROUGH MAY STILL MOVE IN OVERHEAD AS SOON AS
MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE DIVERGENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTICS
AND ENSEMBLES BY WEDNESDAY.
***SATURDAY***
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
FAVORED TO ESTABLISH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA, WITH APPROXIMATELY SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE MOISTURE IN THIS
RETURN TO NUDGE INTO THE CWA. ACCORDING TO LREF GUIDANCE, MOST OF
THE AREA HAS AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 40, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283
HAVE A 50% CHANCE OR BETTER TO EXPERIENCE DEW POINTS ABOVE 50.
HIGHER END SCENARIOS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO UPPER 50 DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES AS FAR WEST AS THE KANSAS-27 CORRIDOR. CAPE
VALUES (A MEASURE OF INSTABILITY) MAY HAVE A REASONABLE MAXIMUM OF
ABOUT 2000 J/KG, THOUGH MOST SCENARIOS SHOW 750-1500 J/KG BEING THE
MOST LIKELY RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHICH
COULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. CONSIDERING
THE HIGHER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BE EXPERIENCED, STORMS WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED (2 KM OR HIGHER), LIMITING THE TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER, STRONGER STORMS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS AND
POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
SATURDAY ARE ABOUT 15-20%, THE LIMITING FACTORS BEING HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLAY FOR STORMS TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF.
***SUNDAY***
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY, WITH CONTINUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, WITH
THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF COLORADO,
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD INTRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
A DRYLINE. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE DRYLINE
WILL SET UP, AS NOTED BY THE 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE SPREAD IN DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 10-20 DEGREE RANGE. WHAT
CAN BE SAID IS THAT AREAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE COULD EXPERIENCE LOW TO
MID TEEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH), WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S OUT
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. WHAT MAKES THIS SCENARIO ABOUT THE DRYLINE
INTERESTING IS THAT THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING IN COLORADO MAY ALLOW
SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND IN THE FORM OF A HOOK IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AS SUCH, WE MAY SEE A SCENARIO WHERE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS) RECEIVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS, AS OPPOSED TO A
TYPICAL SCENARIO WHERE THE DRYLINE IS ORIENTED NORTH-TO-SOUTH.
REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WIND GUSTS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS ARE FORECAST IN THE 30-45
MPH RANGE. NBM GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO,
SUGGESTING A 50-80% CHANCE ACROSS THIS ZONE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL
EXCEED 30 MPH. CONSIDERING THAT RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID-
TEENS ARE POSSIBLE, STRONGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY EXIST FROM THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED BEHIND THE DRYLINE
IS AROUND 30%, AS WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO EXCEED CRITERIA BY AT
LEAST 5-10 MPH, AND RH VALUES HAVE A 50% CHANCE OR BETTER TO
FALL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ACCORDING TO LREF
GUIDANCE.
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, LREF GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING A
50-70% CHANCE FOR DEW POINTS IN THE 50S OR HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR, AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS-27 CORRIDOR. A
REASONABLE MAXIMUM FOR CAPE VALUES LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2500 J/KG EAST
OF THE DRYLINE, WITH A REASONABLE RANGE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.
FURTHER, GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN LINE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 50-60 KTS. AGAIN, LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY HAZARDS FROM STRONGER STORMS, WITH TORNADOES LESS LIKELY
DUE TO STORMS BEING HIGHER-BASED. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OUT
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY AROUND 15%.
***MONDAY-WEDNESDAY***
AGAIN, MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES DIVERGENT BY MONDAY, THOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW APPEARS FAVORED BASED ON GEFS AND EC 500-MB
HEIGHT MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD BE CAUSED BY TROUGHING THAT
REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. GENERALLY, THIS COULD FAVOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES, BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE DROPS HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS LOW AS THE LOWER-60S. THIS MAY BE DUE TO MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW FROM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SLIGHTLY EAST, ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO
COME INTO THE AREA, OR TROUGHING MOVING IN OVERHEAD. EVEN SO, NBM
GUIDANCE DOES STILL HAVE 75TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND
90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY, WITH THE COOLER
CONDITIONS MUCH MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY. REGARDLESS, FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, WITH NBM 48 HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
TOTALS AROUND 0.1 INCHES FROM ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE DIVERGENT, THOUGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS THE INDICATION OF TROUGHING ACROSS A WIDE PORTION OF THE
UNITED STATES. DETERMINISTICS ARE FAIRLY UNCERTAIN ON THE PLACEMENT.
IF TROUGHING CAN REMAIN TO THE WEST, CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MAY BE EXPERIENCED. HOWEVER, TROUGHING OVERHEAD MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
KGLD AND KMCK. LLWS AT 200-400 FEET AGL FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
40-45 KTS WILL ALSO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 12-13Z. GUSTS IN THE
25-30 KTS RANGE WILL BECOME MORE INFREQUENT AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. TOMORROW, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND MAY INITIATE SOME LIGHT STORMS AND CAUSE SOME SHIFTY
WINDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...CA
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