011
FXUS63 KGLD 141707
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1107 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS GENERALLY OF
40-60 MPH WITH A MAX OF 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BLOWING DUST WITH VISIBILITY BELOW A MILE MAY OCCUR
WITH THESE WINDS.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT IS
STEADILY BEING PUSHED OUT BY AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. WITH THE LOW SETTING IN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA, WINDS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 5-15 MPH. THIS SHOULD
STEADILY SPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE STILL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25-35 MPH FOR THE EAST
BEFORE NOON AND FOR THE WEST LATE IN THE EVENING DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICK THE LOW MOVES IN. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE STRONGER WINDS
SHOULD COME FROM STORMS TODAY.
WITH THE LOW IN THE AREA, SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONES ARE
FORECAST TO SET UP IN THE AREA. AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND SOME
700-500MB MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN ON TRACK TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD START AS EARLY AS 12PM MT, BUT
ARE MORE LIKELY BETWEEN 3PM-8PM MT. THE COVERAGE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE HIGHER
MOISTURE. OVERALL, NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST
SEEING NOTHING TO MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL AROUND 0.5-1.5
INCHES AND WIND GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 40-60 MPH. THE WIND
GUSTS LOOK TO BE MORE LIKELY IN THE FORM OF MICROBURSTS DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THE MAX POTENTIAL
WITH THE WINDS STILL APPEARS TO BE 70 MPH, WITH MOST IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED 40-60 MPH RANGE. AN ASSOCIATED CONCERN REMAINS
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST SHOULD A STRONG OUTFLOW DEVELOP
AND BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE. BE ALERT AS BLOWING DUST WITH
VISIBILITY BELOW A MILE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE HAIL,
STORMS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER WITH BOTH THE DRY AIR
AND SLIGHT ANTI- CYCLONIC CURVE IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS. BUT
STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN ISOLATED AND/OR MOVE EAST INTO HIGHER
INSTABILITY MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL. TWO INCHES
SEEMS TO BE THE MAXIMUM SHOULD A SUPERCELL BE ABLE TO GET GOING
WITH THOSE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE (ALBEIT
STILL A LOW CHANCE).
TONIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND
NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAGNATING AND BROADENING AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON. WITH THE SUPPORT WAINING, SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO BE MORE FROM THE
NORTH, WHICH WOULD ALLOW NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TO POTENTIALLY COOL INTO THE 40S WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE
50S. DRIER AIR SHOULD ALSO PUSH IN.
FOR FRIDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY ZONAL WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH, LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
WITH THE DRY AIR. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE
UPPER 80S AND 90S. AS FOR STORMS, THE DAYTIME HOURS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON, EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB
IS FORECAST TO RETURN IN THE UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH
MAYBE A SHORTWAVE AND THE AREA BEING IN THE WRAP AROUND SIDE OF THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO HELP FIRE OFF A FEW STORMS. SHOWERS ARE MORE
LIKELY FOR THOSE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 DUE TO THE FORECAST LACK OF
INSTABILITY. FOR THOSE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY FOR MUCAPE TO REACH 1500-2500 J/KG. THIS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LARGE HAIL, THOUGH THE MAIN LIMITER WOULD BE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS WHICH WOULD FAVOR PULSE STORMS.
STILL SHOULD A STORMS SUSTAIN ITSELF, BE ALERT THAT HAIL COULD REACH
2 INCHES OR LARGER. THE WIND AND TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW
DUE TO WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP.
SATURDAY, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW OVER AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS ALSO SHOULD PUT THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH ENOUGH
FOR SOME POTENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. THESE FACTORS
SHOULD COMBINE TO GIVE THE AREA CHANCES FOR STORMS LATER IN THE DAY.
DURING THE DAY, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO OUT OF THE EAST
UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PICK UP TO BE
AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ABOVE THE HIGH TEENS.
IN REGARDS TO THE STORMS, THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW SETS UP SOME CONVERGENCE ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
TRI-STATE BORDER AREA. WITH MUCAPE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1500-3000
J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM, WE SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO FIRE UP. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH SHEAR WE WILL HAVE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SURFACE LOW
POSITION, WE COULD HAVE SHEAR CLOSER TO 25 KTS IN THE STORM
ENVIRONMENT (WHICH WOULD FAVOR LOWER END PULSE) OR 45 KTS OF SHEAR
IN THE STORM ENVIRONMENT (WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF SUPERCELLS). THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THE LOW POSITIONING IS IT
COULD MOVE THE STORMS INITIATION ZONES OUT OF THE AREA. FOR NOW,
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THAT WOULD
MAINLY MOVE NORTH OF I-70 AND IN EASTERN COLORADO. ALL HAZARDS
ARE POSSIBLE, WITH HAIL CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE THE MOSTLY
LIKELY THREAT DUE TO THE POTENTIALLY HIGH INSTABILITY. TORNADOES
ARE HINDERED A BIT BY POTENTIALLY HIGH LCLS WHILE WIND IS
HINDERED BY OVERALL WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE AIR COLUMN (THOUGH
CLUSTERING MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS FROM THEIR OWN
COLD POOL). STORMS WOULD LIKELY START AROUND 2-4PM MT AND END
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THEY COULD LAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT, AGAIN MAINLY FOR NORTH OF I- 70.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
***SYNOPSIS***
BROAD TROUGHING LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FAVORED TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
KANSAS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS FLOW. THIS SURFACE LOW MAY
PERSIST IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN GOING INTO MONDAY REGARDING
WHERE THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED. GEFS AND EC 500-MB
HEIGHT MEAN- SPREAD GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WEST REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE TROUGH MAY STILL MOVE IN
OVERHEAD AS SOON AS MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE DIVERGENT
BETWEEN DETERMINISTICS AND ENSEMBLES BY WEDNESDAY.
***SUNDAY***
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY, WITH CONTINUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, WITH
THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF COLORADO,
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD INTRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
A DRYLINE. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE DRYLINE
WILL SET UP, AS NOTED BY THE 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE SPREAD IN DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 10-20 DEGREE RANGE. WHAT
CAN BE SAID IS THAT AREAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE COULD EXPERIENCE LOW TO
MID TEEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH), WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S OUT
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. WHAT MAKES THIS SCENARIO ABOUT THE DRYLINE
INTERESTING IS THAT THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING IN COLORADO MAY ALLOW
SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND IN THE FORM OF A HOOK IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AS SUCH, WE MAY SEE A SCENARIO WHERE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS) RECEIVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS, AS OPPOSED TO A
TYPICAL SCENARIO WHERE THE DRYLINE IS ORIENTED NORTH-TO-SOUTH.
REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WIND GUSTS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS ARE FORECAST IN THE 30-45
MPH RANGE. NBM GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO,
SUGGESTING A 50-80% CHANCE ACROSS THIS ZONE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL
EXCEED 30 MPH. CONSIDERING THAT RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID-
TEENS ARE POSSIBLE, STRONGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY EXIST FROM THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED BEHIND THE DRYLINE
IS AROUND 30%, AS WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO EXCEED CRITERIA BY AT
LEAST 5-10 MPH, AND RH VALUES HAVE A 50% CHANCE OR BETTER TO
FALL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ACCORDING TO LREF
GUIDANCE.
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, LREF GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING A
50-70% CHANCE FOR DEW POINTS IN THE 50S OR HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR, AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS-27 CORRIDOR. A
REASONABLE MAXIMUM FOR CAPE VALUES LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2500 J/KG EAST
OF THE DRYLINE, WITH A REASONABLE RANGE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.
FURTHER, GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN LINE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 50-60 KTS. AGAIN, LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND SEEM TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY HAZARDS FROM STRONGER STORMS, WITH TORNADOES LESS LIKELY
DUE TO STORMS BEING HIGHER-BASED. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OUT
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY AROUND 15%.
***MONDAY-WEDNESDAY***
AGAIN, MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES DIVERGENT BY MONDAY, THOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW APPEARS FAVORED BASED ON GEFS AND EC 500-MB
HEIGHT MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD BE CAUSED BY TROUGHING THAT
REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. GENERALLY, THIS COULD FAVOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES, BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE DROPS HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS LOW AS THE LOWER-60S. THIS MAY BE DUE TO MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW FROM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SLIGHTLY EAST, ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO
COME INTO THE AREA, OR TROUGHING MOVING IN OVERHEAD. EVEN SO, NBM
GUIDANCE DOES STILL HAVE 75TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND
90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY, WITH THE COOLER
CONDITIONS MUCH MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY. REGARDLESS, FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, WITH NBM 48 HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
TOTALS AROUND 0.1 INCHES FROM ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE DIVERGENT, THOUGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS THE INDICATION OF TROUGHING ACROSS A WIDE PORTION OF THE
UNITED STATES. DETERMINISTICS ARE FAIRLY UNCERTAIN ON THE PLACEMENT.
IF TROUGHING CAN REMAIN TO THE WEST, CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MAY BE EXPERIENCED. HOWEVER, TROUGHING OVERHEAD MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES.
THAT BEING SAID, BE ALERT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 50KTS. THE
ISOLATED COVERAGE ONLY GIVES EACH TERMINAL A 20% CHANCE OF
SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM, WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR THE STRONG
WINDS. BUT IF ONE DOES OCCUR, IT COULD BE VERY SUDDEN. IF STRONG
WINDS ALSO OCCUR, BLOWING DUST WITH VISIBILITY BELOW A MILE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT SHOULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE ABSENCE OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
10KTS OR LESS, EXCEPT FOR A FEW 15-20KT INSTANCES THROUGH 20Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...KAK
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