141
FXUS63 KGLD 151158
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
ISSUED AT 657 AM MDT THU MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A FAIRLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW SETS UP, AS AN 850 MB
LOW STALLS OUT NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS IS HELPING SET UP A
310K ISOTHERMIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
BOUNDARY RUNS PRETTY PARALLEL TO U.S. 24 AND IS CAUSING THESE LATE
NIGHT STORMS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, BUT
SMALL HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS SHOULD
END BY 9Z.
TODAY, THE LOW LOOKS TO DIFFUSE A BIT, AND WORK TO KEEP WINDS PRETTY
MILD. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND 90 IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND CLOSE TO 100 IN THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL
DRIVE RH VALUES INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE CWA, BUT ONCE
AGAIN, WINDS WILL BE WEAK, MINIMIZING AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE CONVECTION THREAT FOR FRIDAY IS BEING A BIT SQUIRRELLY STILL. A
WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO ENTER THE CWA AROUND 21Z,
ALLOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA.
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE,
POTENTIALLY JUST VIRGA AND DRY LIGHTNING, WHICH IS THE BIGGEST FIRE
WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY. THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS STILL
LOOKING MORE LIKE AN OVERNIGHT THREAT.
AROUND 3-9Z, THE 500 MB VORTICITY FROM THE SHORTWAVE PEAKS AS THE
310K BOUNDARY TIGHTENS UP AGAIN THANKS TO WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE STORMS FIRE, WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG A LINE AROUND
MCCOOK, NE TO CHEYENNE WELLS, CO. SPECIFIC LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY
IS STILL IN FLUX, SO BE PREPARED FOR THIS INITIATION ZONE TO CHANGE.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS, POTENTIALLY AROUND 2
INCHES BASED ON ANALOG DATA.
THE THREAT WINDOW FOR THESE STORMS STARTS AROUND 3Z AND LASTS UNTIL
AROUND 12Z, BUT ONCE STORMS START THEY ONLY LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
CWA FOR ABOUT 4-6 HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IF THESE
STORMS WILL EVEN FORM. AS IT STANDS THERE IS ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE
THESE OVERNIGHT STORMS FORM. IF THEY DO FORM, THEY COULD DIMINISH
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY IS BECOMING A MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND LOW TO MID 90S IN THE EASTERN CWA. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
THE 20S, MINIMIZING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH EAST GUST IN THE 20-30 KTS RANGE.
THE MAIN CONVECTION LOOKS TO FIRE IN EASTERN COLORADO FROM A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS PRESENTING MORE AS A VORTICITY AXIS.
STORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA AROUND 21Z AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AROUND THIS SAME TIME, SOME CAMS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME
DRYLINE INITIATION IN THE CENTRAL CWA. THESE STORMS LOOK TO PEAK
AROUND 22-4Z IN THE CWA, BEFORE EXITING BY 6Z. ALL HAZARDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, INCLUDING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES,
WINDS OF 70 MPH, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THE STRONG WINDS MAY
ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DUST, LEADING TO LOCALIZED BROWNOUT CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF ANOTHER WAVE OF STORMS BEHIND THE FIRST
WAVE, PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA 2-8Z, IF THEY DO
FORM. HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE SIMILAR, BUT LESS INTENSE
THAN THE FIRST WAVE. THIS MEANS HAIL UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES, WINDS IN
THE 60 MPH RANGE, AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF TORNADO.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT AND CAUSE THE SATURDAY
STORMS TO BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ONCE THE STORMS EXIT, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND LOW 60S IN THE EASTERN CWA, WHERE STORMS
DON'T COOL THE ENVIRONMENT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
SUNDAY, OUR REGION IS IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A
DIGGING TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO A
SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE FORECAST IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS
WILL SET OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) UP FOR A MULTI-HAZARD DAY
WITH CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-70 AND
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTH OF I-70. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC) HAS MOST OF OUR AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A DAY 4 15%
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS, LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS THE
MAIN CONCERNS BASED ON STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING IN AMPLE
MOISTURE, STRONG INSTABILITY AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL WILL
ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED.
MOVING ON TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES DROP TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE MID 80S TO UPPER 90S. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
(POPS) SOUTH OF I-70 ARE LESS THAN 10%. WITH THE REGION OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THERE IS CONCERN FOR LIGHTNING AHEAD OF STORMS
AS AN IGNITION SOURCE. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES ARE
IN THE 30S TO 80S, SO IF ANY FIRES START, THEY WILL LIKELY GROW AND
SPREAD RAPIDLY.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AS THE EASTERN CWA IS
OUTLOOKED FOR A DAY 5 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. OUR REGION IS
FORECAST TO BE IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. SIMILAR CONCERNS TO SUNDAY OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT
IT IS. POPS ARE THE HIGHEST FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA RANGING FROM
20-55%.
WE COULD HAVE A FEW HOURS OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE HIGH
TEENS WITH GFDI VALUES OF 80-110+ FOR THE MOST OF THE CWA. WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY IS COOLER IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S. MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
TUESDAY IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN CWA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RIDGE
PATTERN, SO EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE
70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 AM MDT THU MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE
FOR STORMS THAT MAY WORK INTO THE GLD TERMINAL VERY LATE IN THE
PERIOD AROUND THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
MAIN SIGNAL FOR STORMS MAY BE SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS FOR BOTH
GLD AND MCK. WINDS VEER THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM
WNW TO THE ENE WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING TO AROUND 20KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
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