303
FXUS63 KGLD 152024
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR STORMS TO FORM THAT MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL TONIGHT.
- SATURDAY-MONDAY, MORE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, AND
WILL GENERALLY FAVOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE THE AREA UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH
A SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLES REGION. THIS HAS LED TO WINDS
BEING FROM THE NORTH AT 15 MPH, GUSTING 25 MPH. WHILE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN BRIEF AND SPORADIC SO FAR. WITH THIS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, NO RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO LOWER AS WE GET LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING AS THE LOW BROADENS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 90S. WE HAVE HAD A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE WRAP
AROUND SIDE OF THE LOW IN GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 9 C/KM. HOWEVER, WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON THE LOWER SIDE, THEY HAVE NOT REALLY BEEN ABLE TO
SUSTAIN OR HAVE PRECIPITATION REACH THE GROUND. THIS COULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT
NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE.
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FIRE UP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE PALMER DIVIDE. EITHER THESE STORMS MAY
MAKE IT TO THE AREA OR SEND OUTFLOW THAT COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO. IF THERE ARE STORMS, THEY SHOULD MAKE
THEIR WAY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS THEY DO SO, THEY WOULD MOVE INTO
AN ENVIRONMENT WITH BETTER INSTABILITY CLOSER TO 1000-2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE INSTEAD OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG. WITH THIS, A FEW INSTANCES OF
HAIL NEARING AN INCH IN DIAMETER WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE SAVING GRACE
IS THAT THE DRY AIR AND OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY PREVENT
STORMS FROM FORMING AT ALL. THERE IS ABOUT AN 80% CHANCE THESE
STORMS DON'T DEVELOP AND WE MAYBE JUST HAVE A FEW HIGH SHOWERS PASS
THROUGH. IF STORMS DID FORM, THE SEVERE WEATHER WOULD FAVOR
GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO OUT OF THE EAST
AROUND 10 MPH.
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MORE IMPACTFUL DAY OF THE
FORECAST. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HELP DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. WITH IT, AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO
FORM NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BRINGS IN MOISTURE. WITH THIS, STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND PUSH EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG HIGHWAY 40 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL IF THERE
ARE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING FROM CONVECTION DURING THE
PRIOR NIGHT. WHILE LESS LIKELY TO FORM, THESE STORMS WOULD PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST IF THEY DID FORM. INITIATION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12-
2PM MT, PEAK AROUND 3-7PM MT / 4-8PM CT, AND END AROUND 9-11PM CT.
AS FOR THE HAZARDS, ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND
30-45 KTS ALLOWING FOR BOTH CLUSTER/LINEAR AND SUPERCELL MODES.
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IS THE QUESTIONS WITH THE RRFS AND HRRR
FAVORING AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE WHILE THE NAM 3K HAS CLOSER TO
3000-3500 J/KG. EITHER WOULD ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL, BUT THE LOWER
VALUES WOULD FAVOR A MAX CLOSER TO 2.0-2.5 INCHES WHILE THE HIGHER
VALUES WOULD FAVOR 3+ INCHES WITH SUPERCELLS. IN EITHER CASE, LINEAR
OR CLUSTER STORMS WOULD FAVOR HAIL AROUND 0.5-2.0 INCHES. FOR
TORNADOES, GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
MORPH TO SUPPORT SOME TORNADOES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES. STILL, THE LCL'S OF THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE
RATHER HIGH AROUND 6000-10000FT WHICH WILL HAMPER DEVELOPMENT A
LITTLE. QLCS TORNADOES ARE MORE LIKELY, WITH ONE TO TWO QUICK SPIN
UPS FORECAST. IF WE CAN GET A SUPERCELL AHEAD OF THE LINE, IT
WOULDN'T BE UNREASONABLE FOR A TORNADO TO FORM THEN AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, THIS EVENT WOULD BE MORE OF A HAIL AND WIND EVENT.
SPEAKING OF WIND, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH OUTPUTS
SUGGESTING MAX WIND GUSTS OF 70-90 MPH. WITH WINDS AROUND 700-500MB
REACHING 55-60 KTS AND CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR VECTORS OF 50-70KTS, IT
WOULDN'T BE UNREASONABLE FOR A FEW GUSTS TO 80-85 MPH. MOST OF THE
WINDS SHOULD FALL IN THE 50-70 MPH RANGE, EVEN WITH THE LINE OF
STORMS. IT IS JUST IF THE LINE SURGES OR WE GET A WELL DEVELOPED
SUPERCELL, THE STRONGER WINDS MAY COME INTO PLAY. THE WIND IS MORE
LIKELY AFTER 4-5 PM MT. IN REGARDS TO AREAS, COUNTIES ALONG THE
NEBRASKA BORDER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER AND
THE HIGHEST MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE REST OF THE AREA MAY
SEE SEVERE WEATHER IF THE SECONDARY LINE FORMS OR IF AN OUTFLOW
SURGES SOUTH. OTHERWISE, THE SEVERE EVENT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND WITH ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THIS EVENT CAN BE WEAKENED IF THERE IS TOO MUCH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NIGHT PRIOR OR IF THE LOW CENTER
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH. WE MAY BE MISSED ENTIRELY IF THINGS SHIFT TO
FAR NORTH.
OTHERWISE, SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN WARM WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH. WHILE THE
WINDS MAY BE A BIT BREEZY, THE INFLUX OF LOWER MOISTURE SHOULD
PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE
SKIES CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND
BRING IN A DRY SLOT. THAT BEING SAID, LOW CLOUDS OR FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR LOCALES IN AND NEAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IF THEY GET
EITHER GOOD RAINFALL THAT SATURATES THE LOWER LEVELS, OR MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO THESE AREAS.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG DOWN SOUTH INTO MORE OF
THE ROCKIES. WITH LITTLE EASTERLY MOVEMENT, THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE MINIMALLY TO THE EAST. THAT BEING SAID, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW COULD SHIFT A FAIR AMOUNT. THIS
IS A PROBLEM FOR FORECASTING THE STORM POSITIONING AND EVOLUTION AS
THE DRYSLOT WILL DETERMINE WHO SEE STORMS AND WHO DOESN'T. THE
DRYSLOT WILL ALSO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION CONCERNS
FOR THOSE WHO THE DRY AIR MOVES OVER. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST POSITION
OF THE LOW IS TO BE MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, WHICH WOULD BE THE AREAS THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD DROP
INTO THE TEENS. WINDS ARE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS AS THE DRY AIR WILL GENERALLY BE WHERE THE LOW CENTER IS,
WHICH IS WHERE THE WEAKER WINDS SHOULD BE. STILL, GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER FOR THOSE
NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE WELLS, CO TO TRENTON, NE WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 80S WHILE THOSE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE 90S.
AS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR IT AHEAD AND
NORTH OF THE LOW. IN THESE AREAS, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR FOR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST.
THERE IS THE CHANCE THOUGH THAT THEY ARE OVER SHEARED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENING AND INCREASING THE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AIR
COLUMN. THIS ALSO HAS UPPED THE WIND THREAT WITH WINDS AROUND 500MB
POTENTIAL REACHING 60 KTS AND DOWNSHEAR VECTORS OF 70-80 KTS. LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY, THOUGH OVER SHEARING WOULD WEAKEN BOTH OF THEIR
CHANCES. STORMS SHOULD LIKELY FIRE UP AROUND 1-3PM MT AND THEN END
BY 10-11PM MT. THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE A LIKELY SECONDARY SCENARIO
WITH ENSEMBLES SPLIT ON THE LOW PLACEMENT, SO JUST BE WATCHING FOR
UPDATES AS THE THREATS AND THEIR PLACEMENT MAY CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
SUNDAY, OUR REGION IS IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A
DIGGING TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO A
SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE FORECAST IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS
WILL SET OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) UP FOR A MULTI-HAZARD DAY
WITH CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-70 AND
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTH OF I-70. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC) HAS MOST OF OUR AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A DAY 4 15%
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS, LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS THE
MAIN CONCERNS BASED ON STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING IN AMPLE
MOISTURE, STRONG INSTABILITY AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL WILL
ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED.
MOVING ON TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES DROP TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE MID 80S TO UPPER 90S. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
(POPS) SOUTH OF I-70 ARE LESS THAN 10%. WITH THE REGION OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THERE IS CONCERN FOR LIGHTNING AHEAD OF STORMS
AS AN IGNITION SOURCE. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES ARE
IN THE 30S TO 80S, SO IF ANY FIRES START, THEY WILL LIKELY GROW AND
SPREAD RAPIDLY.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AS THE EASTERN CWA IS
OUTLOOKED FOR A DAY 5 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. OUR REGION IS
FORECAST TO BE IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. SIMILAR CONCERNS TO SUNDAY OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT
IT IS. POPS ARE THE HIGHEST FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA RANGING FROM
20-55%.
WE COULD HAVE A FEW HOURS OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE HIGH
TEENS WITH GFDI VALUES OF 80-110+ FOR THE MOST OF THE CWA. WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY IS COOLER IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S. MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
TUESDAY IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN CWA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RIDGE
PATTERN, SO EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE
70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE NORTH AROUND 15 KTS GUST
20-25 THROUGH 21-00Z, THEN LOWER TO BE CLOSER TO 10 KTS AND
SHIFT SLOWLY TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY AFTER 03Z. SHOULD A STORM FORM, IT
COULD PRODUCE 50KT WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AROUND 1-2 INCHES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...KAK
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