326
FXUS63 KGLD 161725
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SATURDAY-MONDAY, MORE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, AND
WILL GENERALLY FAVOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
THE CONVECTION THREAT FOR TONIGHT STILL HAS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
OCCURRING. UNTIL ABOUT 9-12Z, 500 MB VORTICITY FROM A SHORTWAVE
PEAKS AS THE 310K BOUNDARY TIGHTENS UP AGAIN THANKS TO WARM, MOIST
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH
THESE STORMS, POTENTIALLY AROUND 2 INCHES, BUT LIKELY CLOSER TO AN
INCH. THE THREAT WINDOW FOR THESE STORMS LASTS UNTIL AROUND 12Z, BUT
ONCE STORMS START THEY ONLY LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE CWA FOR ABOUT 3-5
HOURS. IF THEY DO FORM, THEY COULD DIMINISH THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY IS STILL THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND LOW TO MID 90S IN THE EASTERN CWA. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA, MINIMIZING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS WINDS FROM THE SOUTH EAST GUST IN THE 20-30 KTS RANGE.
HOWEVER, EAST CENTRAL COLORADO MAY NOT RECEIVE THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND SEE RH VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS COULD LEAD
TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEAR KIT CARSON, CO.
THE MAIN CONVECTION LOOKS TO FIRE IN EASTERN COLORADO FROM A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS PRESENTING MORE AS A VORTICITY AXIS.
STORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA OR INITIATE AROUND 20-22Z AND MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST. THESE STORMS LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-4Z IN THE CWA,
BEFORE EXITING BY 6Z. HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGELY STRAIGHT-LINED IN THE
MID-LEVELS, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL IN SPLITTING SUPERCELLS.
ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE HAIL THREAT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.25-2.5. THIS WOULD BE THE SIZE MOST SEVERE
STORMS WOULD PRODUCE, ESPECIALLY FROM ANY LEFT MOVING CELLS.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WOULD HAVE A CHANCE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 4
INCHES. WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60-75 MPH RANGE, HOWEVER THERE IS A
RISK OF A QLCS OR A CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PRODUCE WINDS UP 85 MPH.
THIS POSES A MASSIVE THREAT OF BLOWING DUST, LIKELY A CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN HABOOB LEADING TO BROWNOUT CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO A
RELATIVELY HIGH RISK OF TORNADOES. TORNADOES THAT COME FROM QLCS
STORM MODES WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. ONCE AGAIN, ANY ISOLATED
STRONG SUPERCELL INTRODUCES THE RISK FOR A LONG-LIVED, STRONG
TORNADO.
THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF ANOTHER WAVE OF STORMS BEHIND THE FIRST
WAVE, PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA 2-6Z, IF THEY DO
FORM. HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE LESS INTENSE THAN THE FIRST
WAVE. THIS MEANS HAIL UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND WINDS IN THE 60 MPH
RANGE.
IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THE HREF IS SHOWING QPF IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FOR LOCATIONS THAT GET HIT WITH REPEATED WAVES OF STORMS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 36. THIS PRESENTS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING IF THIS RAIN FALLS EXTREMELY QUICKLY. HOWEVER, THE
REFS IS NOT SHOWING THIS MUCH QPF, CLOSER TO HALF THIS AMOUNT ON THE
HIGH END. WHILE WE DO HAVE PWATS IN THE 1 INCH RANGE, THE SPEED AND
INSTABILITY OF THE STORMS MAKES THE FLOODING THREAT LOW, IN ADDITION
TO THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT AND CAUSE THE SATURDAY
STORMS TO BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ONCE THE STORMS EXIT, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND LOW 60S IN THE EASTERN CWA, WHERE
ADDITIONAL RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY IS LOOKING AT ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. BEFORE THAT,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE WESTERN CWA AND NEAR 100
IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA IS ALSO LOOKING AT BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF HILL CITY TO
TRIBUNE. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 14% WHILE WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST GUST IN THE 15-30 KTS RANGE. THE STRONGER WINDS AND DRIER
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE THE GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS MAY ALSO SEE
SOME ISOLATED PLUMES OF BLOWING DUST.
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SUNDAY IS SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN ZONES OF
CONCERN. THE WESTERN CONCERN LOOKS TO FIRE OFF OF A WARM FRONT
SLOWING PUSHING NORTH. THE START TIME LOOKS TO BE AROUND 20-22Z,
SOUTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF U.S. 83. ONCE STORMS FORM, THEY WILL TAP
INTO THE MID LEVEL WINDS AND ROCKET TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. HAZARDS
ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY'S, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER. HAIL IS
STILL THE MAIN THREAT, WITH MAXIMUM REASONABLE HAIL SIZE BEING UP TO
3 INCHES WITH 1-2 INCHES BEING MORE COMMON. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE IN
THE 50-70 MPH RANGE, BUT 80 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE DUST THREAT
REMAINS A MAJOR HAZARD, BUT THIS THREAT COULD LESSEN DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS ON SATURDAY. FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
LESS THAN 0.25" OF RAIN SATURDAY WILL HAVE A RISK OF BROWNOUT
CONDITIONS FROM A WALL OF DUST. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS LOWER AS
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER, BUT LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRIMED
FOR TORNADOGENESIS.
THE EASTERN CONCERN WILL BE EAST OF U.S. 83 AND MAY START CLOSER TO
THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. THESE STORMS WOULD FIRE OFF A SURFACE TRIPLE
POINT, ASSISTED BY THE INCOMING 500 MB TROUGH. THE EXTENT OF
COVERAGE AND INITIATION ZONE OF THESE STORMS IS VERY DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE DRYLINE SETS-UP. THE DRYLINE MAY PUSH FARTHER WEST
INTO THE AREA, OR MAY MOVE EAST AND REMAIN OUT OF THE CWA. THE
WESTWARD MOVEMENT WOULD EXPOSE MORE OF THE CWA TO THESE STORMS WHILE
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT WOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT. AS FAR AS HAZARDS
GO, THEY ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE WESTERN STORMS, BUT THE THREAT FOR
LONG DURATION, STRONG TORNADOES INCREASES.
THE STORMS MAY COME IN TWO WAVES. THE FIRST WOULD BE IN THE 20-00Z
TIME FRAME WITH THE SECOND WAVE IN THE 02-06Z TIME FRAME. PEAK
TIMING FOR THE SEVERE THREATS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 22-04Z, WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT ENDING BY 06Z AND LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS LASTING
A FEW HOURS BEYOND THAT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO NEAR
40 IN THE WESTERN CWA AND REMAIN IN THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN CWA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AS THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) IS OUTLOOKED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)
FOR A DAY 4 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO
BE UNDER A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE IS ALSO A
SURFACE LOW IN PLACE WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW TO THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER. GFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES ALL STILL DISAGREE ON WHERE THIS LOW WILL SET UP. SOME
ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. WHERE THE LOW ULTIMATELY SETS UP WILL DETERMINE
OUR WEATHER FOR MONDAY. A SOUTHWEST KANSAS LOW WILL FAVOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WHILE A MORE
CENTRAL KANSAS LOW WILL PUSH THE DRYLINE FURTHER EAST INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY, THE NBM IS LEANING MORE TOWARDS A SOUTHWEST KANSAS LOW
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.
BLOWING DUST WILL BE A CONCERN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AS THEY ENTER AN ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE, STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS AND
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE
40-90% FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE HIGH
TEENS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH
THE REGION OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THERE IS CONCERN FOR
LIGHTNING AHEAD OF STORMS AS AN IGNITION SOURCE. GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE 80-100S FOR THE
SOUTHERN CWA. IF ANY FIRES START, THEY WILL LIKELY GROW AND SPREAD
OUT OF CONTROL RAPIDLY. IF THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP SETTING UP IN
CENTRAL KANSAS, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD END UP MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA.
TUESDAY IS COOLER IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S. MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
TUESDAY IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN CWA. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AS
WE ENTER MORE OF A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PATTER. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 30 MPH FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
FOR KGLD... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE THAT STORMS MAY FORM NEAR OR OVER THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 22-02Z. IF THESE STORMS FORM, THEY COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KTS. AFTER 03Z,
THE STORM THREAT SHOULD END AND WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT 200FT
WITH WINDS POTENTIALLY SWITCHING TO OUT OF THE SOUTH AT SPEEDS
AROUND 40 KTS. FINALLY, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG AND/OR LOW
CEILINGS BELOW 3000FT AFTER 12Z. KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER AS
KGLD IS CLOSE TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF HAZARDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 10-12Z
WHEN SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND 1000FT AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THAT, A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINAL, LIKELY PRODUCING WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40-50 KTS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TIME IS 02Z, BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN
00-04Z. ONCE THE STORMS PASS, THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AROUND 200-400FT AS WINDS SHIFT TO BE MORE FROM THE
SOUTH AND TRY TO REACH 40 KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...KAK
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