673
FXUS63 KGLD 170302
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
902 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL UP TO 3
INCHES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH ARE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. A FEW TORNADOES AND BLOWING DUST ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- SUNDAY-MONDAY, MORE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, AND
WILL GENERALLY FAVOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE STORMS. BLOWING DUST
MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH FOR THOSE
WHO DO NOT RECEIVE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITES STATES AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE HAS SETUP OVER THE PANHANDLES REGION, BUT EXTENDS TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE. WITH THIS, WE CONTINUE TO HAVE
BOTH UPPER LEVEL AND LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS.
EARLY MORNING STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG AN INITIAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
OR DRYLINE ALONG I-70 ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE NORTH
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE THAT THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS. THESE EARLY MORNING STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST TO
MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE LATER STORMS OR PREVENT THEM FROM
BEING STRONG. ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES IS THAT THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
THAT WAS FORECAST TO BE AROUND HIGHWAY 40 AND I-70 IS LESS LIKELY TO
BE IN PLACE AND SPARK STORMS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE LOW
BROADENING AND HAVING LESS OF A WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE SETUP. STILL,
THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE OR A WEAK DRYLINE THAT COULD
STILL IGNITE SOME STORMS THAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO BE SOLO AND/OR
SUPERCELLULAR. IF THESE DO FORM, IT WOULD LIKELY BE NEAR I-70
BETWEEN 2-4PM MT. OVERALL CHANCE IS AROUND 30%. THE MAIN HAZARD WHEN
THESE STORMS FIRST FORM WOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL AROUND 1-3 INCHES
IN SIZE AND MAYBE A TORNADO.
OTHERWISE, WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR STORMS TO FORM BETWEEN 1-3PM MT
IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY FORM INTO A LINE
FAIRLY QUICKLY NEAR THE WESTERN YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTY
BORDERS AND PUSH EAST. WHILE THE INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE LESSER TO START, ENOUGH SHOULD BE PRESENT
FOR LARGE HAIL TO FORM. AS IT BECOMES MORE OF A LINE AND MOVES
EAST INTO BETTER MOISTURE, THE RISK FOR TORNADOES AND STRONG
OUTFLOW/COLD POOL WINDS INCREASES. THE ISSUE WITH THIS IS THAT
IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME A QLCS, MAKING THE HAZARDOUS WIND GUSTS
MORE WIDESPREAD AND MAKING ANY TORNADOES HARD TO SEE.
AS WE GET INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, THE STORMS
SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA. IF BOTH AREAS FORM, THEY SHOULD
BEGIN TO MERGE TOGETHER CLOSE TO HIGHWAY 25. THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG SUPERCELLS IF THE FIRST CLUSTER FORM IN NW KANSAS AND ISN'T
QUICKLY OVERTAKEN BY THE LINE FROM COLORADO. BE ALERT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND MAYBE A STRONG TORNADO IF THIS
OCCURS. OTHERWISE, THE CLUSTER AND LINE SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA NORTH OF I-70, PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, PLENTY OF WIND GUSTS ABOVE
60 MPH (MAYBE PUSHING 80-90 MPH), AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT
CENTRAL TIME. THERE MAY STILL BE ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH
THE 500MB TROUGH REMAINING UPSTREAM AND OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
STORMS, BUT THE THREATS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER. WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET
SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF ANY LINGERING STORMS. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER
CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
TOMORROW, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO NEAR MORE OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, THOUGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY LAG A
BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS COULD GIVE THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER, SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT. THE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THE SURFACE LOW IS DRAGGED,
THE LESS THE AREA WILL BE FILLED WITH DRY AIR AND THE MORE
INSTABILITY WE WILL HAVE FOR STORMS. IF THE LOW DOES MOVE MORE INTO
OR OVER THE AREA, WE WOULD INSTEAD RUN THE RISK OF SOME CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND WITH WIND GUSTS
NEARING 25-30 MPH. IN THIS CASE, THE SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE WOULD
BE CONFINED AGAIN TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SHOULD THE SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP, IT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TIME TABLE OF STARTING AROUND 2-4PM MT NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER
AREA. THE STORMS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PUSH EAST/NORTHEAST, WHICH MAY
BE THE DIFFERENCE OF THE STORMS LEAVING THE AREA INSTEAD OF PUSHING
ACROSS. ALL HAZARDS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE OTHER AREA WE WOULD
BE WATCHING IS ALONG THE DRYLINE IF IT IS IN OUR AREA. STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO FIRE UP EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND PUSH EAST, AGAIN WITH
ALL HAZARDS. LIKELY, THIS WOULD ONLY IMPACT THOSE EAST OF HIGHWAY
83, IF AT ALL. REGARDLESS OF WHICH/ANY STORM ACTIVITY THAT FORMS,
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END CLOSE TO 9PM-12AM CT AS THE LOW
DIFFUSES AND THE SUPPORT WANES (AS LONG AS THERE ARE NOT A BUNCH OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA).
ONE THING TO BE WARY OF BOTH DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STORM OUTFLOW. THE AREA HAS STILL BEEN
SOMEWHAT DRY, WITH DUST LIKELY TO KICK UP IF WINDS GUST ABOVE 50
MPH. THIS COULD LEAD TO BROWNOUT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF ANY
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS. THE THREAT MAY BE LESSENED SUNDAY IF
SATURDAY'S STORMS DUE CLUSTER ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AREAS WITH AN INCH
OR TWO OF RAIN.
MONDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PUSHING EAST INTO
THE PLAINS WHILE ALSO BROADENING. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THE
MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE EAST. WITH THIS, THE CHANCE
AND RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD LOWER ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
DOESN'T MEAN WE WILL BE IN THE CLEAR, AS THOSE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
STILL HAVE SOME RISK IF THE TROUGH DOES NOT PUSH EAST FAST ENOUGH.
BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A FAST PROGRESSION SO THE CHANCES
ARE NOW ON THE LOWER SIDE.
THE ISSUE IS THAT IT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AS A COLDER AIR MASS
WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS COULD REACH 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH. THIS POSES A PROBLEM BOTH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
BLOWING DUST. IF THE DRY AIR MOVES IN FAST ENOUGH OR GETS PULLED
FURTHER NORTH, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS RH
LOWERS INTO THE TEENS. IF WE DO NOT GET MUCH IN THE FORM OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN BLOWING DUST MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONG
WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
TUESDAY IS COOLER IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. OUR
REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THERE IS AROUND A 40%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA).
CONDITIONS REMAIN COOL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE 60S. SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE AROUND 30-40% FOR THE CWA.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
EJECTS EASTWARD AND TAKES US OUT OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW,
BUT IT WILL LIKELY MOVE ON AFTER FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
BEGINS FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR FRIDAY
AND 80S FOR SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POPS AROUND 20-30% FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 850 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES AND THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE LIMITED TO NO PRECIPITATION. THE ADDED
MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED BREEZE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASED RISK OF LOWER CEILINGS. IN FACT, PROBABILITIES OF
SEEING CEILINGS BELOW 2000FT AT BOTH GLD AND MCK ARE GREATER
THAN 80%. MEANWHILE, PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 3
MILES IS ONLY AT 15-25%. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE LOWER CEILINGS
WITH A CONTINUED BREEZE WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THAT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF
ISSUANCE ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY EVENING. SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...COOLEY
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