878
FXUS63 KGLD 181715
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1115 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LARGE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
40S (YUMA COUNTY ) TO THE LOW 70S (GREELEY/WICHITA)
- BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY LEAD
TO BLOWING DUST WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE (20%
CHANCE) ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40.
- EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA AS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING
YUMA COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT LEADING TO TRAINING STORMS. THE
POSITION OF THIS FRONT IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY. FIRST OFF HOWEVER NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AS WELL BUT THE FOG
POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BREEZY
AROUND 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED. AM SEEING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS
WELL OVERNIGHT LEADING TO THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DRY AIR
ABOVE 700MB SHOULD HELP ANY PREVENT ANY UPDRAFT FROM UTILIZING
ANY REMAINING MUCAPE ALOFT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS
DUE TO THIS.
MONDAY, AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE POSITIONING OF THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR TEMPERATURES AND EVEN BLOWING
DUST POTENTIAL. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE STALLED OUT AS A STATIONARY FRONT. SOME
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IT BEING STALLED OUT ROUGHLY AROUND
HIGHWAY 40 IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA; WHEREAS
OTHERS HAS IT SOUTH OF THE OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
IF THE FRONT DOES REMAIN AROUND HIGHWAY 40 THEN TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF THERE WOULD BE AROUND 5- 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ELEVATED TO EVEN
VERY LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BLOWING
DUST WOULD WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH PLUMES OF DUST. AROUND 21Z A
STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. IF THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE REMAINS IN THE AREA THEN A HABOOB COULD BE POSSIBLE AS
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 6000 FEET AGL. WITH ALL
OF THIS HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING DUST INTO THE
FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 20% IN DUST DEVELOPING AND
AROUND 5-10% IN A HABOOB. HAVE BEEN NOTICING A MORE SOUTHERN
TREND WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN
ENSEMBLES AND MOST OF 00Z DATA AND IF THAT DOES CONTINUE THEN
ANY DUST THREAT WOULD BE ELIMINATED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 50-55 MPH WITH THE FRONT ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ELSEWHERE FROM THE
NORTH. THE WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO CHILLY WIND CHILLS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ESPECIALLY ACROSS YUMA COUNTY WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM UP MUCH.
WITH PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SIGNAL FOR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA HAVE NUDGED DOWN TEMPERATURES MORE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT AND 70S TO LOW 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF THE
FRONT INDEED IS SOUTH OF THE AREA THEN ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD
ALSO BE ELIMINATED. SHOWERS AND STORMS HOWEVER ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOME 500MB VORTICITY OFF
OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT MINIMAL CAPE AND WHAT IS FORECAST TO BE A
FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT SO ANTICIPATING ANY HAZARDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT MONDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT STRATUS RETURNS OR EVEN CONTINUES
IN SPOTS. BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE A SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WANING WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THERE
ARE SOME FAILURE POINTS TO HOW COLD IT MAY GET HOWEVER. THE FIRST
ONE IS THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE KEEPING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE OTHER IS THE BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WITH ALL OF THIS IN PLACE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE
TO A WARNING OR EVEN FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SO WILL LEAVE THE
WATCH AS IS.
TUESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER MORE OF THE AREA
LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS AND FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
60S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY
BUT AN ADVANCING 500MB SHORTWAVE OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE SHOWER POTENTIAL STARTING DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MINIMAL CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE
PRESENT SO CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WEDNESDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST UNDER A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
WITH A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND A
RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOL AND WINDY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 60S AND WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) HAS A PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
(POPS) AROUND 30-40% DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
EVENING TO AROUND 60-70% AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN CWA.
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
FORECAST IN THE 60S. OUR REGION REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH, SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A MOSTLY
STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY KEEP AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUB-
SEVERE. POPS RANGE FROM 30-60% THURSDAY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
THE SOUTHERN CWA ON THE HIGHER END.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
EJECTS EASTWARD AND TAKES US OUT OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW,
BUT IT WILL LIKELY MOVE ON AFTER FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
BEGINS FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR FRIDAY
AND 80S FOR SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POPS AROUND 20-30% FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING A RETURN TO VFR
UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
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