031
FXUS63 KGLD 181856
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1256 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
- FROST POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
- OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY ERODE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING CLEARING AS
FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70 BY 22Z. AFTERWARDS, THE CLOUDS WILL
PUSH SOUTH AGAIN AND THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH IF NOT THE
ENTIRE NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN 00-06Z, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL END WITH THE WIND
SHIFT. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND WIND, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR LOWS, SO ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY
SUNNY AND MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
COMBINED WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF COLORADO IN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON IS LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
RANGE AND NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER HERE. QPF REMAINS LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS A MODEST INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SREF/NBM MEANS SHOWING GENERALLY UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH, BUT SOME DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SUGGESTING
LOCALLY UP TO A HALF INCH OR MORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND 60S WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, COOLEST IN
COLORADO.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON, THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER, AND MODELS SHOWING ONLY WEAK SBCAPE OF AROUND 500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN COLORADO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO 30-50 KTS BY 00Z AND MAY COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT
FOR THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN COLORADO, WHERE A MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF
HEATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.25" - 0.50", THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER 1" ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY COULD REMAIN IN
THE 50S, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH PERHAPS 60S FURTHER SOUTH OR WEST WITH
LIMITED CLEARING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WEDNESDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST UNDER A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
WITH A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND A
RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOL AND WINDY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 60S AND WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) HAS A PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
(POPS) AROUND 30-40% DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
EVENING TO AROUND 60-70% AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN CWA.
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
FORECAST IN THE 60S. OUR REGION REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH, SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A MOSTLY
STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY KEEP AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUB-
SEVERE. POPS RANGE FROM 30-60% THURSDAY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
THE SOUTHERN CWA ON THE HIGHER END.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
EJECTS EASTWARD AND TAKES US OUT OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW,
BUT IT WILL LIKELY MOVE ON AFTER FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
BEGINS FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR FRIDAY
AND 80S FOR SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POPS AROUND 20-30% FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING A RETURN TO VFR
UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM
MDT /9 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-
042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM
MDT /9 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079-080.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page