874
FXUS63 KGLD 182055
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
- FROST POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
- OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY ERODE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING CLEARING AS
FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70 BY 22Z. AFTERWARDS, THE CLOUDS WILL
PUSH SOUTH AGAIN AND THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH IF NOT THE
ENTIRE NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN 00-06Z, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL END WITH THE WIND
SHIFT. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND WIND, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR LOWS, SO ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY
SUNNY AND MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
COMBINED WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF COLORADO IN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON IS LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
RANGE AND NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER HERE. QPF REMAINS LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS A MODEST INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SREF/NBM MEANS SHOWING GENERALLY UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH, BUT SOME DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SUGGESTING
LOCALLY UP TO A HALF INCH OR MORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND 60S WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, COOLEST IN
COLORADO.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON, THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER, AND MODELS SHOWING ONLY WEAK SBCAPE OF AROUND 500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN COLORADO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL INCREASE TO 30-50 KTS BY 00Z AND MAY COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT
FOR THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN COLORADO, WHERE A MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF
HEATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.25" - 0.50", THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER 1" ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY COULD REMAIN IN
THE 50S, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH PERHAPS 60S FURTHER SOUTH OR WEST WITH
LIMITED CLEARING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
FRIDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH A WEAK TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO A
SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
ENSEMBLES DO NOT FULLY ALIGN ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SURFACE LOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
(POPS) ARE 30-60% INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER, LINGERING
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT CAPPED, REDUCING THE
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM, SMALL
HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY AND BEGIN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR SATURDAY AND THE 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SATURDAY WILL HAVE A 25% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES. AFTER SUNDAY, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RIDGE PATTERN, SO
EXPECT PRIMARILY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOONS FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING A RETURN TO VFR
UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM
MDT /9 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-
042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM
MDT /9 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079-080.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
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