377
FXUS63 KGLD 190526
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1126 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SHORT PERIOD OF FROST IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S.
- OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY ERODE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING CLEARING AS
FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70 BY 22Z. AFTERWARDS, THE CLOUDS WILL
PUSH SOUTH AGAIN AND THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH IF NOT THE
ENTIRE NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN 00-06Z, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL END WITH THE WIND
SHIFT. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND WIND, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR LOWS, SO ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY
SUNNY AND MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
COMBINED WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF COLORADO IN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON IS
LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT RANGE AND NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDER HERE. QPF REMAINS LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS A MODEST INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
SREF/NBM MEANS SHOWING GENERALLY UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH,
BUT SOME DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SUGGESTING LOCALLY UP TO A HALF
INCH OR MORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, COOLEST IN COLORADO.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON, THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER, AND MODELS SHOWING ONLY WEAK SBCAPE OF AROUND 500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN COLORADO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 KTS BY 00Z AND MAY COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT FOR
THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN COLORADO, WHERE A MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF
HEATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.25" - 0.50", THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER 1" ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY COULD REMAIN IN
THE 50S, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH PERHAPS 60S FURTHER SOUTH OR WEST WITH
LIMITED CLEARING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
FRIDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER A WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH A WEAK TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THERE IS
ALSO A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. ENSEMBLES DO NOT FULLY ALIGN ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
SURFACE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE 30-60% INCREASING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT CAPPED, REDUCING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM, SMALL HAIL COULD
OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY AND BEGIN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR SATURDAY AND THE 80S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A 25% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) FROM
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. AFTER SUNDAY, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF
A RIDGE PATTERN, SO EXPECT PRIMARILY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LIFT/SCATTER TO VFR BY SUNRISE
(~10-12Z). VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER,
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. N WINDS AT ~12-18
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO ~25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE,
THEN DECREASE TO ~8-13 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING (~16-18Z)
AND 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE E AND SE AFTER SUNSET, NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001-
002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079-
080.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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