871
FXUS63 KGLD 191126
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
526 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SHORT PERIOD OF FROST IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST CO (YUMA/KIT CARSON COUNTIES)
WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MID 30'S.
- OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
FROST ADVISORY: IN THE ADVISORY AREA, A SHORT PERIOD OF FROST
IS POSSIBLE AN HOUR OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE THIS
MORNING, WHEN PERVASIVE LOW CEILINGS (2000-3000 FT AGL AT 0845Z)
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/SCATTER. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
YUMA/KIT CARSON COUNTIES ARE MOST AT-RISK FOR FROST (RELATIVELY
SPEAKING). LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROST DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HWY 36 WHERE BREEZY (10-20 MPH) NORTH WINDS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.
TODAY: ~1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN WYOMING AT 06Z WILL
BUILD ESE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY.
EXPECT DECREASING CLOUD COVER BY SUNRISE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BY LATE MORNING AS NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS A DRIER
AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5-10 MPH BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON (~16-19Z).. IN
CONCERT WITH A WEAKENING MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT. CLEAR
SKIES / UNIMPEDED INSOLATION WILL FOSTER A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50'S TO UPPER 60'S.
TONIGHT: LIGHT N WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE E (THIS EVENING) AND
SE (EARLY WED MORNING) AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS PROGRESSES SLOWLY E TOWARD NORTHWEST
MISSOURI/WESTERN IOWA.. LEADING TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN (850 MB DEWPOINTS RISING FROM -3 TO 3C) BY SUNRISE IN
EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT KS BORDER COUNTIES. STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL (700-500 MB) WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE.. A MODEST 250-350 MB TROUGH / SHEAR-AXIS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.. WILL FOSTER
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CEILINGS AT/ABOVE ~7,000 FT
AGL) THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A MODEST INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-
LEVEL FLOW IN EASTERN CO, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WEAK/NEUTRAL
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT, AND THAT.. MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, IN OF ITSELF,
WILL LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
(I.E. ANYTHING BEYOND VIRGA/SPRINKLES) PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT (WED MORNING) LOWS IN THE UPPER 30'S TO LOWER 40'S.
WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF GOODLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN/WHERE MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONGEST; ENOUGH TO CAPITALIZE ON/UTILIZE MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (~100-250 J/KG MUCAPE). EXPECT BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER OVER MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA AND ~10-20 MPH SE WINDS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50'S TO MID 60'S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
THURSDAY WILL SEE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON, THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER, AND MODELS SHOWING ONLY WEAK SBCAPE OF AROUND 500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN COLORADO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 KTS BY 00Z AND MAY COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT FOR
THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN COLORADO, WHERE A MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF
HEATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.25" - 0.50", THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER 1" ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY COULD REMAIN IN
THE 50S, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH PERHAPS 60S FURTHER SOUTH OR WEST WITH
LIMITED CLEARING.
FRIDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER A WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH A WEAK TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THERE IS
ALSO A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. ENSEMBLES DO NOT FULLY ALIGN ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
SURFACE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE 30-60% INCREASING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT CAPPED, REDUCING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM, SMALL HAIL COULD
OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY AND BEGIN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR SATURDAY AND THE 80S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A 25% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) FROM
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. AFTER SUNDAY, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF
A RIDGE PATTERN, SO EXPECT PRIMARILY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
EARLY MORNING STRATUS CONTINUES TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA. CIGS CONTINUE TO REPORT AROUND 2KFT AGL AT AREA
TERMINALS AND WILL MAINTAIN LIMITED COVERAGE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER AND REMAIN THAT
WAY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY. TONIGHT, INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
THAT MAY BRING A RETURN OF LOW-END VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE
TIMING AND IMPACTS REMAINS LIMITED AND ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATER
FORECASTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079-080.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...WFO LBF/NMJ
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