962
FXUS63 KGLD 191911
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
FROST ADVISORY: IN THE ADVISORY AREA, A SHORT PERIOD OF FROST
IS POSSIBLE AN HOUR OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE THIS
MORNING, WHEN PERVASIVE LOW CEILINGS (2000-3000 FT AGL AT 0845Z)
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/SCATTER. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
YUMA/KIT CARSON COUNTIES ARE MOST AT-RISK FOR FROST (RELATIVELY
SPEAKING). LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROST DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HWY 36 WHERE BREEZY (10-20 MPH) NORTH WINDS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.
TODAY: ~1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN WYOMING AT 06Z WILL
BUILD ESE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY.
EXPECT DECREASING CLOUD COVER BY SUNRISE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BY LATE MORNING AS NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS A DRIER
AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5-10 MPH BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON (~16-19Z).. IN
CONCERT WITH A WEAKENING MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT. CLEAR
SKIES / UNIMPEDED INSOLATION WILL FOSTER A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50'S TO UPPER 60'S.
TONIGHT: LIGHT N WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE E (THIS EVENING) AND
SE (EARLY WED MORNING) AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS PROGRESSES SLOWLY E TOWARD NORTHWEST
MISSOURI/WESTERN IOWA.. LEADING TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN (850 MB DEWPOINTS RISING FROM -3 TO 3C) BY SUNRISE IN
EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT KS BORDER COUNTIES. STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL (700-500 MB) WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE.. A MODEST 250-350 MB TROUGH / SHEAR-AXIS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.. WILL FOSTER
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CEILINGS AT/ABOVE ~7,000 FT
AGL) THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A MODEST INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-
LEVEL FLOW IN EASTERN CO, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WEAK/NEUTRAL
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT, AND THAT.. MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, IN OF ITSELF,
WILL LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
(I.E. ANYTHING BEYOND VIRGA/SPRINKLES) PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT (WED MORNING) LOWS IN THE UPPER 30'S TO LOWER 40'S.
WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF GOODLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN/WHERE MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONGEST; ENOUGH TO CAPITALIZE ON/UTILIZE MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (~100-250 J/KG MUCAPE). EXPECT BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER OVER MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA AND ~10-20 MPH SE WINDS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50'S TO MID 60'S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SATURDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR SATURDAY AND THE
80S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A 25-35% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) FROM
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGES.
AFTER SUNDAY, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RIDGE PATTERN, SO EXPECT
PRIMARILY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS FOR
OUR COLORADO COUNTIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 80S. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR THE WESTERN CWA. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES OVERALL TRENDING DOWN AND FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S FOR
TUESDAY, FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE
LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT STARTS TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY. IF THIS SURFACE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING TOWARD OUR REGION, WE
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT EITHER TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024/ICT
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