380
FXUS63 KGLD 191934
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- MARGINAL SEVERE RISK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY
IN COLORADO, BUT COULD SEE THAT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN WILL MERGE WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. SHORTWAVES EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TOMORROW. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS AS THEY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS, BUT
WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING INSTABILITY DO NOT THINK THEY WILL
IMPACT OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE REMNANT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SOME WEAK MUCAPE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANY HAZARDS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY OTHER THAN LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH.
SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST, WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO, BUT SHIFTED
NORTHWARD AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AT THE
TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SHIFT FURTHER
EAST AND THE REFS HAS A CORRIDOR OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM LIMON TO
FORT MORGAN ALONG WITH 35KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WHILE THE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER 00Z, MUCAPE
OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG AS WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS ARE
FORECAST AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM COLORADO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PARAMETERS SUGGEST A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME POCKETS OF MUCAPE UP TO 1000
J/KG FORECAST BY THE NAM THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING. NBM
HAS RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1" IN EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY
EVENING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS, THEN AROUND 0.25-0.50" IN THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THIS MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD
LIMIT THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY, THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
CLEARING COULD OCCUR ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO WILL NEED TO SEE WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NEW CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG IT.
HOWEVER, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY HAVE THE FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH, ENTERING OKLAHOMA, WHILE THE NAM IS SLOWER AND HAS
THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SINCE THIS IS STILL
A FEW DAYS OUT AND THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE DAYS OF CONVECTION
WHICH MAY IMPACT THE ULTIMATE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE
HAZARDS ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SATURDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR SATURDAY AND THE
80S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A 25-35% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) FROM
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGES.
AFTER SUNDAY, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RIDGE PATTERN, SO EXPECT
PRIMARILY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS FOR
OUR COLORADO COUNTIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 80S. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR THE WESTERN CWA. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES OVERALL TRENDING DOWN AND FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S FOR
TUESDAY, FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE
LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT STARTS TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY. IF THIS SURFACE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING TOWARD OUR REGION, WE
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT EITHER TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
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