378
FXUS63 KGLD 021720
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1120 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TUESDAY, BUT SOMEWHAT
BETTER, THOUGH MARGINAL, CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S DURING THE DAYS,
AND 50S/60S DURING THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
TODAY HAS SEEN THE UPPER LOW LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH, ALLOWING
RIDGING TO AMPLIFY MORE INTO THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WERE PRESENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
HAVE SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS IS ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING STEADILY. HIGHS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S WITH THE CLEARER SKIES. WINDS HAVE
REMAINED ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW STILL
TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 10-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-40 MPH.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, STORMS ARE FORECAST TO TRY AND FIRE
UP AGAIN. THE LIKELY REGIONS ARE WEST OF THE AREA LONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE PANHANDLES WHERE ONGOING
CONVECTION MAY KICK AN OUTFLOW ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE
SURFACE LOW. WE ALSO HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVERHEAD IF ANOTHER CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP OVERHEAD. CURRENTLY,
WITH THAT BEING UNLIKELY, OUR STORM CHANCES ARE FOR STORMS TO MOVE
IN FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE
THE SOUTHERN STORMS IF THEY CAN MAKE IT. CLOUD COVER MAY STABILIZE
THINGS ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM MAKING IT. EVEN IF STORMS DO MAKE
IT HERE, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH LOWER TODAY AROUND 25-35
KTS, FAVORING PULSE OR DECAYING STORMS. THIS IS WHY STORM CHANCES
ARE CAPPED IN THE 50-60S IN SPITE OF THE SUNSHINE AND LINGERING
MOISTURE. WE STILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SUPPORT WOULD LIKELY ONLY ALLOW FOR EITHER HAIL
TO AN INCH OR A WIND GUST OR TWO TO 60 MPH. IT WOULDN'T BE
IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO MAKE LARGER HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES WITH
MUCAPE POTENTIALLY REACH 2500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD MOVE STEADILY
NORTHEAST IF THEY FORM AND CLEAR THE AREA A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, AGAIN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS IT DOES SO, IT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT THE
LOWER PRESSURE FURTHER INTO THE PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING NEAR
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NE COLORADO. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE
AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STILL BE IN THE 80S WITH NO AIRMASS
CHANGE AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FIRE
UP ALONG THE FRONT AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE AREA. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CLUSTER TOGETHER, BUT
THEN STRUGGLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 15-30 KTS. IF THIS SETS UP, STORMS WOULD LIKELY FALL
BEHIND THEIR OUTFLOW AND THEN DISSIPATE OR JUST PRODUCE WEAK STORMS
AS IT MOVES EAST. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH, THOUGH THE CHANCES ARE LOW DUE TO THE OVERALL WEAK FLOW. THE
OTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF STORMS IS OUTFLOW FROM STORMS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. IF STORMS IGNITE, THEY WOULD LIKE FORM IN NW KANSAS AND PUSH
NORTHEAST. THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE THE LARGER RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH MUCAPE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2000-3500 J/KG INSTEAD OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE WEST. BUT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ALSO AROUND 15-
30 KTS, SEVERE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. LARGE
HAIL UP TO 2.75 INCHES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. ANY STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA EARLY IN THE
NIGHT, LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS
WOULD BE IN THE 60S FOR THOSE UNDER THE CLOUD COVER, BUT THE 50S IN
THE WEST IF THE CLOUD COVER BREAKS.
THURSDAY, MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST
TO BE UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND BROAD SURFACE LOW. THE TRI-
STATE AREA IS FORECAST TO START ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW, KEEPING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. HOWEVER,
THESE SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT BY ABOUT 5 MPH AS THE LOW EXPANDS. THE LOW
EXPANDING IS ALSO FORECAST TO BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE MOISTURE OUT
OF THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR CLEARER SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO WARM AGAIN INTO THE 80S, THOUGH A FEW 90S MAY OCCUR IF
THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLY ENOUGH IN THE MORNING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM OF THE AREA AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE AREA,
WE WILL HAVE SOME SUPPORT FOR STORMS. THE LIMITER IS THAT THE
MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH FUEL STORMS WILL HAVE IN
THE AREA. FOR NOW, THIS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO ONLY STORM CHANCES
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS STORMS FORM OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOVE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALSO INHIBIT THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE STORMS UNLESS SOMETHING MOVES IN OVERNIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER
ZONAL/RIDGING FLOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RELATIVELY MID CONDITIONS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE 80S AND LOW 90S WITH WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY, THOUGH THE LACK OF LARGER SYNOPTIC FORCING IS KEEPING
CHANCES LOWER AROUND 10-25% (FAVORING THE EAST WHERE THERE WILL
LIKELY BE MORE MOISTURE).
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS COULD
LEAD TO CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MORE MOIST AND
WARM CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING BACK BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER, AS LONG AS THE TROUGH DOESN'T
LAG TO THE WEST. OTHERWISE, THE BENIGN CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE A
FEW MORE DAYS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO DROP TO
NEAR 1000FT AROUND 12Z, THOUGH THE CHANCE IS LOWER THAN IT WAS
IN EARLIER FORECASTS. THE OTHER THING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 01Z. STORMS REMAIN FAVORED SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS, BUT A FEW MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IN THE ABSENCE
OF STORMS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
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