799
FXUS63 KGLD 041750
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A SEVERE STORM
OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO.
- INCREASING SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12-14Z. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THAT
TIME IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, THEN ENDING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WILL TRANSITION TO A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.
HARD TO FIND ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITH THE RIDGE NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
LATEST CAMS SHOW LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY, WITH ONLY
VERY ISOLATED CELLS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO BETWEEN 21-02Z TIED TO
SURFACE HEATING AND NEAR THE FRONT. INSTABILITY IN COLORADO
WILL BE WEAK, LESS THAN 500 J/KG, EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE KANSAS
BORDER WHERE IT INCREASES TO 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 35 KTS. IF ONE OF THE ISOLATED CELLS MANAGES TO
GET THAT FAR EAST, IT COULD POTENTIALLY TAP INTO THE BETTER
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, THE CAMS SUGGEST THAT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY
AND THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW (LESS THAN 20%).
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 02Z WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING.
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, AND BY 21Z LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A NORTON TO
COLBY TO TRIBUNE LINE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS, OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THAT LINE AS SHOWN BY THE RRFS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 21-23Z WITH STRONG
CONVERGENCE BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH
UPPER RIDGING FORECAST. INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG FORECAST. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE 20-25 KTS.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE RISK GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
INSTABILITY, THE LACK OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE FRONT ITSELF AND
THE WEAK SHEAR SUGGEST IT WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. THAT BEING
SAID, A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE, DAMAGING WINDS (FAVORABLE DCAPE AROUND 1500-2000
J/KG), AND PERHAPS A BRIEF SPIN UP NEAR THE FRONT ARE THE
EXPECTED HAZARDS. CAMS SHOW THE STORMS EITHER DISSIPATING OR
MOVING OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY EARLY IN THE EVENING, BETWEEN
02-03Z, WITH THE REST OF THE NIGHT QUIET.
A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS ONE WRINKLE, HOWEVER, AS THE MODELS SHOW A COMPACT
DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES IN THE
MORNING INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THE EVENING. THE
CURRENT TRACK WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA AND EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO HEAT UP UNDER THE RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. BREEZY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S INTO THE AREA,
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FORECAST TO BE 20-30%.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WITH LARGE SCALE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH GENERAL RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN DILEMMA FACING THE
AREA WILL BE THE EXACT POSITION OF ALL OF THESE FEATURES AS THE
CWA WILL REALLY BE ON THE EDGE OF THINGS, WITH STRONGER FLOW
(AND RESULTING WIND SHEAR) BEING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AND STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH SURFACE LOW
BRINGING PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA, THINK
WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS EVEN IF OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO WHERE THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS AND WHILE ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA TENDS TO SUPPORT THIS
STAYING WEST OF THE AREA, SOME OF THE LATEST MACHINE LEARNING
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT LEAST BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE.
OTHER CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE RELATED TO AMPLIFYING
RIDGE AND GENERAL WARMING TREND. FAIRLY CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES, ALTHOUGH AREA WILL BE ON THE GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES WHICH DOES LOWER OVERALL CERTAINTY IN UPCOMING
FORECAST. A PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS LOW INTENSIFIES, BUT THINK SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL
LIKELY HOLD DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES UP SOMEWHAT, LIMITING FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
ONGOING (AS OF 16Z) MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
AND SCATTER TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BY ~18-20Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER, THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT (6-12 KNOT) ESE TO S
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL
JET (~1000 TO 2000 FT AGL) MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS AT
EITHER/BOTH TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
BETWEEN 04-10Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DDC
LONG TERM...DDC
AVIATION...VINCENT
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