409
FXUS63 KGLD 042116
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
316 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A SEVERE STORM
OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO.
- INCREASING SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12-14Z. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THAT
TIME IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, THEN ENDING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WILL TRANSITION TO A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.
HARD TO FIND ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITH THE RIDGE NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
LATEST CAMS SHOW LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY, WITH ONLY
VERY ISOLATED CELLS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO BETWEEN 21-02Z TIED TO
SURFACE HEATING AND NEAR THE FRONT. INSTABILITY IN COLORADO
WILL BE WEAK, LESS THAN 500 J/KG, EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE KANSAS
BORDER WHERE IT INCREASES TO 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 35 KTS. IF ONE OF THE ISOLATED CELLS MANAGES TO
GET THAT FAR EAST, IT COULD POTENTIALLY TAP INTO THE BETTER
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, THE CAMS SUGGEST THAT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY
AND THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW (LESS THAN 20%).
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 02Z WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING.
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, AND BY 21Z LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A NORTON TO
COLBY TO TRIBUNE LINE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS, OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THAT LINE AS SHOWN BY THE RRFS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 21-23Z WITH STRONG
CONVERGENCE BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH
UPPER RIDGING FORECAST. INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG FORECAST. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE 20-25 KTS.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE RISK GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
INSTABILITY, THE LACK OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE FRONT ITSELF AND
THE WEAK SHEAR SUGGEST IT WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. THAT BEING
SAID, A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE, DAMAGING WINDS (FAVORABLE DCAPE AROUND 1500-2000
J/KG), AND PERHAPS A BRIEF SPIN UP NEAR THE FRONT ARE THE
EXPECTED HAZARDS. CAMS SHOW THE STORMS EITHER DISSIPATING OR
MOVING OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY EARLY IN THE EVENING, BETWEEN
02-03Z, WITH THE REST OF THE NIGHT QUIET.
A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS ONE WRINKLE, HOWEVER, AS THE MODELS SHOW A COMPACT
DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES IN THE
MORNING INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THE EVENING. THE
CURRENT TRACK WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA AND EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO HEAT UP UNDER THE RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. BREEZY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S INTO THE AREA,
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FORECAST TO BE 20-30%.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
SUNDAY, OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) WILL REMAIN IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE EVENING WHEN WE SEE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS)
GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 30% FOR THE NORTHERN CWA. SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THERE ARE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE PRESENT OVER THE
CWA, BUT SHEAR WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORMS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 20 KNOTS OF SHEAR. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP,
SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE AREA
WITH POPS FROM 20-40%, INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. OUR
REGION IS IN A STRONG SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH A WEAK JET
STREAK AROUND 70 KNOTS OVER THE REGION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE, BUT AGAIN,
SHEAR IS THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 20-40
KNOTS OF SHEAR. HAZARDS ARE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH SMALL HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS, BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S, BUT
IF THE REGION SEES WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY,
INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DECREASE STORM
CHANCES FOR MONDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE
HOT, WINDY, AND DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES FORECAST. TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S TO 100S WITH
WIND GUSTS FROM 25-40 MPH POSSIBLE. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
IN THE LOW TEENS TO 20S, DECREASING FROM EAST TO WEST. RH VALUES MAY
TREND LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PROMOTING DOWNSLOPE
WARMING AND MIXING. THIS COULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS
WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN RH
VALUES ARE THE LOWEST. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES OF
60 TO 100+ ARE FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP MAY SPREAD RAPIDLY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTROL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
ONGOING (AS OF 16Z) MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
AND SCATTER TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BY ~18-20Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER, THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT (6-12 KNOT) ESE TO S
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL
JET (~1000 TO 2000 FT AGL) MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS AT
EITHER/BOTH TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
BETWEEN 04-10Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...JRM
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