065
FXUS63 KGLD 051508
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
908 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH OF
I-70 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN 3-8 PM MDT / 4-9 PM CDT.
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS,
SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP.
- INCREASING SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
NW MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. A SLIM INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN
ACROSS THE NORTH, A SURFACE LOW IS SEEN CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHICH MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED STORM. SOME FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
HITCHCOCK, RED WILLOW, DECATUR, NORTON AND POSSIBLY GRAHAM
COUNTIES AS EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND
REMAINING LIGHT. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREA AND
THE LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS, THIS SEEMS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR SOME
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WITH A LARGE SURFACE TO 1KM MIXING RATIO
DIFFERENCE IN PLACE. ANY FOG IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH AROUND
9AM CENTRAL TIME FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT BETWEEN HIGHWAY 25 AND
HIGHWAY 83. A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE
FRONT ALONG WITH A 5-10% CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS SOME VERY WEAK OMEGA IS SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 10-15
MPH VERSUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-20 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AND TO THE LOW/MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT IS ALSO IMPORTANT FOR THE LOCATION
OF STORMS AS WELL FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL DECENT SIGNAL IN
AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS IT IS FORECAST TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION. AS
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THERE IS THE CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF LANDSPOUT DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED CAPE. CRITICAL ANGLES ARE ALSO IN THE
60-90 DEGREE RANGE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE BASED VORTICITY
WOULD BE FAVORED AS WELL WITH ANY ANY UPDRAFTS THAT CAN FORM.
THE LIMITING FACTOR TO BE FOR LANDSPOUTS IS THE OVERALL WEAK
SURFACE FLOW THAT MAY LIMIT ANY FORMATION. 21Z RAP WIND FIELD AS
SUGGESTED THAT A POTENTIAL MESO-LOW MAY BE IN PLACE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS WELL WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY AID THE LANDSPOUT
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE PULSEY IN NATURE BUT IF ONE WERE TO WANDER OFF OF THE
BOUNDARY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WHICH IS THE RIGHT MOVER MOTION
THEN THE THREAT FOR HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES WOULD INCREASE. THE
POSITIVE IS THAT WITH A LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SUPPORT SHOULD
ANY RIGHT MOVERS OCCUR THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED.
THE OTHER FACTOR TO KEEP AN EYE ON ESPECIALLY WITH THE STORMS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THEY ENTER THEIR DISSIPATION STAGE IS THE
THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MICROBURST
COMPOSITE AROUND 6 ALONG WITH 0-3KM MAX THETA E DIFFERENCES
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER THAN 25C AND HIGH DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES. SHOULD ANY STRONG ENOUGH
DOWNBURSTS OCCUR THEN WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME BLOWING
DUST POTENTIAL AS WELL WITH ANY WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOWS AS
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 4500-6500 FOOT RANGE.
THE IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE AS WELL IS THAT WITH A WEAK MEAN
WIND AND A SLOW NEARLY STATIONARY RIGHT MOVER MOTION ANY STORMS
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS. STORMS COULD START AS EARLY AS 2PM MOUNTAIN TIME BUT
ONLY LAST THROUGH AROUND 7- 8PM MOUNTAIN TIME AS WE LOSE OUR
DIURNAL HEATING. OVERNIGHT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
DUE TO SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THIS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY, TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AN OVERALL FAIRLY TRANQUIL DAY IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR BUT WARM AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH THE ONLY OBVIOUS FORCING BEING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING BREACHED. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED WITH VERY WEAK FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. OTHER
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BUT CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
SOME AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS YUMA COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH A STOUT 850MB
JET IN PLACE. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST DRIER MIXING LAYER DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HUMIDITY
FALLING BELOW 15%. THE CAVEAT TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS THAT
THE NAM CONTINUES TO KEEP AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH WOULD ELIMINATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
SUNDAY, OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) WILL REMAIN IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
IN THE 90S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE EVENING WHEN WE
SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 30% FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE ARE AROUND 500-1000
J/KG OF CAPE PRESENT OVER THE CWA, BUT SHEAR WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND
20 KNOTS OF SHEAR. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE
AREA WITH POPS FROM 20-40%, INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
OUR REGION IS IN A STRONG SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH A
WEAK JET STREAK AROUND 70 KNOTS OVER THE REGION. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS STILL MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF
CAPE, BUT AGAIN, SHEAR IS THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING 20-40 KNOTS OF SHEAR. HAZARDS ARE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS,
BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S, BUT IF THE REGION SEES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER COULD LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DECREASE STORM CHANCES FOR
MONDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO
BE HOT, WINDY, AND DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES FORECAST. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S TO
100S WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 25-40 MPH POSSIBLE. RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE LOW TEENS TO 20S, DECREASING FROM EAST
TO WEST. RH VALUES MAY TREND LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE
TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS PROMOTING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND MIXING. THIS COULD
INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN RH VALUES ARE THE
LOWEST. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES OF 60 TO 100+
ARE FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ANY
FIRES THAT DEVELOP MAY SPREAD RAPIDLY AND BECOME DIFFICULT TO
CONTROL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 905 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER
AT 15Z ARE EVER-SO-SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO CHEYENNE
COUNTY, KS. RECENT HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CEILINGS WILL SCATTER-OUT AND/OR LIFT TO VFR
PRIOR TO REACHING THE GOODLAND TERMINAL DURING THE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NW TO NNW WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE AND DECREASE TO 8-12 KNOTS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD, VEERING TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE AFT-EARLY
EVE AND SOUTH TONIGHT-SAT MORNING.
MCK: ONGOING (AS OF 15Z) LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER-OUT AND/OR LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED WELL S AND E (25+ MILES) OF THE MCCOOK
TERMINAL. LIGHT (~6-12 KNOT) E TO NNE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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