973
FXUS63 KGLD 052026
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH OF
I-70 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN 4-9 PM CDT. LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.
- INCREASING SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: A MODEST SW-TO-NE ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS
(~250-300 MB LEVEL) AND AN ACCOMPANYING LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION
(SW-TO-NE ORIENTED SURFACE TO 850 MB TROUGH) WILL VERY SLOWLY
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE THIS
AFTERNOON, WHEN/WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. PER 19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG/NEAR A LINE EXTENDING NE-NNE
FROM LEOTI- OAKLEY-OBERLIN. UNIMPEDED SUNSHINE WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (1500-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE AT 19Z) ALREADY IN PLACE OVER NORTHWEST KS THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN ENE PORTIONS OF THE GOODLAND CWA (HILL
CITY, NORTON, OBERLIN) WHERE MOISTURE POOLING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LEAD TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION
(3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE) AT PEAK HEATING. 19Z SPC MESOANALYSIS
DATA INDICATES A PRISTINE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES 8.5-9 C/KM) AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION (75-150 J/KG MLCIN) OVER THE GOODLAND CWA.. AS
EVIDENCED BY CLEAR SKIES ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. AS OF 1930Z,
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTON COUNTY, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
MID-UPPER 60'S AND THE TEMPERATURE WAS ~93F. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (~50-150
J/KG OF MLCIN) WILL PERSIST THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THIS APPEARS
TO BE, IN PART, A FUNCTION OF PERSISTENT LOW CEILINGS/STRATUS IN
SOUTHWEST NE THIS MORNING, WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WAS DELAYED
AND TEMPERATURES AT 1930Z WERE 10-15F COOLER THAN ADJACENT KS
BORDER COUNTIES. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND, IT APPEARS THAT WEAK
FORCING AND A PERSISTENT CAP / CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL ACT AS
A BARRIER TO APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFT-EVE.
CURRENT AND RECENT (12-18Z) RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GOODLAND CWA THIS AFT-
EVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, SEASONABLY STRONG DCAPE, VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK (~10-15 KNOT) FLOW IN THE LOWEST
15,000 TO 20,000 FT AGL AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. A CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL, NEVERTHELESS, EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF HWY 83
(NORTON/GRAHAM) WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION (ORGANIZED OR
NOT). FURTHER SOUTH.. IN GREELEY, WICHITA, LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES, WHERE EXTREME DCAPE (~1800 J/KG) IS PRESENT..
BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION (I.E. STORMS, SHOWERS, VIRGA).
SAT-SAT NIGHT: AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY FOSTER
MARGINAL TO MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE) OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SAT, THOUGH.. SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD ASSIST IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON, LIGHT/VARIABLE MID-LEVEL FLOW
WOULD DO LITTLE TO STEER DEVELOPMENT EAST TOWARD THE GOODLAND
CWA. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR-TO, ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN,
TODAY, ~92-97F.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FOSTER SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
SUNDAY, OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) WILL REMAIN IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
IN THE 90S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE EVENING WHEN WE
SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 30% FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE ARE AROUND 500-1000
J/KG OF CAPE PRESENT OVER THE CWA, BUT SHEAR WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND
20 KNOTS OF SHEAR. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE
AREA WITH POPS FROM 20-40%, INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
OUR REGION IS IN A STRONG SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH A
WEAK JET STREAK AROUND 70 KNOTS OVER THE REGION. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS STILL MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF
CAPE, BUT AGAIN, SHEAR IS THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING 20-40 KNOTS OF SHEAR. HAZARDS ARE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS,
BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S, BUT IF THE REGION SEES
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER COULD LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DECREASE STORM CHANCES FOR
MONDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO
BE HOT, WINDY, AND DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES FORECAST. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S TO
100S WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 25-40 MPH POSSIBLE. RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE LOW TEENS TO 20S, DECREASING FROM EAST
TO WEST. RH VALUES MAY TREND LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE
TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS PROMOTING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND MIXING. THIS COULD
INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN RH VALUES ARE THE
LOWEST. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES OF 60 TO 100+
ARE FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ANY
FIRES THAT DEVELOP MAY SPREAD RAPIDLY AND BECOME DIFFICULT TO
CONTROL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 905 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER
AT 15Z ARE EVER-SO-SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO CHEYENNE
COUNTY, KS. RECENT HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CEILINGS WILL SCATTER-OUT AND/OR LIFT TO VFR
PRIOR TO REACHING THE GOODLAND TERMINAL DURING THE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NW TO NNW WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE AND DECREASE TO 8-12 KNOTS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD, VEERING TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE AFT-EARLY
EVE AND SOUTH TONIGHT-SAT MORNING.
MCK: ONGOING (AS OF 15Z) LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER-OUT AND/OR LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED WELL S AND E (25+ MILES) OF THE MCCOOK
TERMINAL. LIGHT (~6-12 KNOT) E TO NNE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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